End of the Cold War
Obama and Medvedev heal divisions and sign nuclear weapons pact
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Barack Obama, centre left, speaks with Dmitry Medvedev at the Kremlin yesterday
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The rancour and mistrust of Bush-era relations between Russia and the US were cast aside yesterday when presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev signed an agreement on nuclear weapons that could prove historic.
The two leaders agreed to work towards a treaty to replace the 1991 Start-1 pact which expires in December and to reduce their stockpiles of nuclear warheads to between 1,500 and 1,675 each. In a further sign of its willingness to repair fractured relations, Russia offered its airspace to US planes flying weapons and troops to Afghanistan. This will shorten flying time and save the US more than $100m (£62m) a year.
Mr Obama announced that he intended to host a global nuclear summit next year to combat nuclear proliferation, the biggest threat to global security, and said he and Mr Medvedev had discussed a plan for Russia to reciprocate by hosting a follow-up meeting.
There were smiles all round as Mr Obama arrived for the summit which continues today. "We resolve to reset US-Russian relations so that we can co-operate more effectively in areas of common interest," Mr Obama said at the Kremlin.
How much effect the bonhomie and toned-down rhetoric will have on still thorny issues such as the proposed US missile defence system and the situation in Georgia remains to be seen. Even the nuclear agreement is only a framework for negotiators to use when drawing up a comprehensive treaty. Differences in opinion remain.
But Mr Obama and Mr Medvedev were full of positive words about each other and said they looked forward to continuing their working relationship.
Russia insisted before the talks took place that any negotiations on arms reduction had to proceed together with negotiations on the US plans for an anti-missile shield in central and eastern Europe, a Bush-era plan to which the Kremlin is strongly opposed.
There were no breakthroughs on this issue, though Mr Obama appeared to cede some ground. He said he thought it was inappropriate to link missile defence with arms reduction but Mr Medvedev announced they had "agreed that defensive and offensive weapons should be viewed as a whole".
Mr Obama said: "We have agreed that we're going to continue to discuss it. It's going to take some hard work because it requires breaking down some long-standing suspicions". He promised to present a review of the US plans by the end of the summer. Russia will be pleased at the change of tone – the Bush administration had simply stated that the missile defence plans were none of Russia's business.
Air Force One touched down in Moscow at lunchtime. Mr Obama, his wife, Michelle, and their daughters were ferried to the city centre, where Mr Obama laid a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. He then proceeded to the Kremlin to meet Mr Medvedev. As Mr Obama talked with his Russian counterpart for nearly four hours, his wife and daughters were given a tour of the Kremlin by Svetlana Medvedeva, the Russian President's wife.
Mr Obama's visit has not been given much airtime by the government-controlled media and his arrival in Moscow did not provoke the sort of public enthusiasm that has greeted him on other foreign visits.
The real test for renewed relations could come today, when Mr Obama has breakfast with Vladimir Putin, Russia's former president, who as Prime Minister is still seen as the country's most powerful man.
Mr Putin may have some of his acerbic wit at the ready for the President after Mr Obama made the curious step of publicly criticising Mr Putin before his trip to Moscow.
While praising Mr Medvedev as someone with whom it was possible to do business, Mr Obama said late last week that Mr Putin needed to understand that "the old Cold War approach to US-Russian relations is outdated" and that unlike Mr Medvedev, the former KGB agent who was now Prime Minister "has one foot in the old ways of doing business". Mr Putin's response was surprisingly measured but he is not known to take criticism well so Mr Obama's attack may yet backfire.
Yesterday, Mr Obama looked awkward when answering a question at a press conference on who he felt held real power in Russia. He said his main interest was in "dealing directly with my counterpart" who was "straightforward and professional" but he also wanted to "reach out to Prime Minister Putin and other influential sectors of society". Mr Medvedev gave a faint smile. Later, Mr Obama inadvertently began to refer to "President Putin", but quickly corrected himself.
Mr Obama has gone out of his way to praise Mr Medvedev. In an interview published yesterday with the opposition newspaper Novaya Gazeta, he dodged a question about whether he would press Russian authorities over bringing to justice the murderers of the investigative journalist Anna Politkovskaya.
He also said it seemed "odd" that the former Yukos boss Mikhail Khodorkovsky was being subjected to a second trial in Russia but added that there was no place for outsiders to interfere in the Russian legal system and praised Mr Medvedev's "courageous initiative to strengthen the rule of law in Russia".
Most analysts feel that Mr Medvedev's words about legal reform have not been followed up with substantive action.
In addition to his breakfast with Mr Putin today, Mr Obama is also due to give a substantial speech on US-Russia relations at the graduation ceremony of the New Economic School in Moscow.
He will also meet opposition leaders, including controversial radical opposition figures such as the former chess great Garry Kasparov. He departs Russia for the G8 summit in L'Aquila tomorrow morning.
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Comments
Interesting times ahead. Don't count on good news in the future. If any historian were to write about this period, it would be called @the war of nonrenewable resources@.
What nonsense the cold war is long since over and as for this new treaty even if it came into effect the threat of both parties nuclear weapons remains the same. Dead is dead and they still have enough to kill large parts of the world.
The next battle is not the old ideologies but those of resources, Russia has far more gas and oil than the states. Ergo we should all be wary of them. That is why it is imperative we find more alternatives to carbon based fuels because the Russians will have no qualms about sending us back to the middle ages if a higher price comes along. These smiles for the camera mean nothing, the Russians no damn well they hold the tump card.
With such an agreement expiring amidst the prior US-Russian tensions of the last few years, what's to prevent misunderstandings between the two countries from another arms race and cold war 2? Unless the US is genuinely making efforts to reduce its own and its former antagonists nuclear weapons, what kind of self defeating, hypocrisy ridden message does that send to Iran not to mention the rest of the world that it's all but business as usual of the US doing whatever it wants while dictating to Iran that it can't have nuclear weapons?
And furthermore, if the goal truly is to one day remove the existence of nuclear weapons (IF such a goal is even realistic) and the global annihilation that would result by their use between the holders of 95% of the world's stockpiles, how would you suggest that happen? For the two powers to get together and just say, yeah okay, we're going to just stop making nukes and destroy all our stockpiles? That's just not just unrealistic, but impossible in today's climate. So it has to start somewhere doesn't it? The continuation of START allows both powers to follow the intentions of the original treaty with an incremental draw down of both sides nuclear arsenal since it is in both's interests to do so, but one side will not do so if it doesn't think the other will, hence the agreement.
Ydef to address your post. The answer inn my opinion is respect to this Proposed reduction is Costs of nuke arms, America bankrupt, Russia not wanting to spend more and more in adding Topol M and Buluva missiles at the cost to her society. Please note, what happened in Moscow is a show, nothing of importance can happen in less than 48 hours and what was signed, is not anything resembling a treaty, at this point its a memorandum of understanding. I am a bit skeptical yes about any continuation of start treaty. I remain muted until it becomes law. But I add, what particular relevance would it be? If as the Americans want, simply to stockpile unused tactical nuke missiles in storage without actual destruction. What good is that, and if they are reassembled simply to be stockpiled. what exactly does that mean, simply taking out the warheads and putting them back 20 minutes later? What is fundamental is NO NATO expansion on the borders with Russia, If that were to happen then there is hope. But I doubt it. lets see and hope
The last thing Putin would like is for the Americans to pack up their soldiers and kit and leave Afghanistan, Putin is very, very aware that Afghanistan, North Korea, Iran and other perceived threats and conflicts are slowly bleeding America dry.
And so the stupid American's sit there daily in the heat and dust and literally bang their collective heads against a brick wall, against an enemy that disappears into the shadows, that cannot be engaged, whilst others sit there in Iraq or on their ships in the Persian Gulf, south Korea, chasing threats that never quite materialise.
Perhaps others don't see it, perhaps I am mistaken but Putin is a world class chess player and we are seeing a mighty game of chess going on right now, America is being continually baited between several factors, baited knowing they would not, could not resist, Iran given just enough support to keep the Israeli's screaming, likewise North Korea kept alive long enough to keep the American's, Japanese and South Koreans focused, I have suspected for a long, long time now that Russia and China have been playing a very subtle, very clever game, without confrontation or conflict to themselves and can sit back and watch as their adversaries break their backs chasing the puppets set before them.
The Americans don't realise it but if this is the case, they are doomed unless they collapse their military empire and consolidate their nation because in two or three years time, it will be too late and the American nation will like so many other empires before it, collapse in on itself and the Russians and Chinese will usurp the power vacuum.
Will it go through villages and kill all in the village or just lay down and die? In the nuclear context that is a serious question. The key to Americas death inter alia is the dollar and with China for the first time in Argentina giving that country loans in Yuan, our financial history has suddenly changed, a world first, continuing that process in Asia as we speak. How long will the dollar survive?, My guess is as long as the holders of huge US currency, Japan, China, Russia in this order, take to sell off its dollars, and this is why China and Russia is buying as much as they can, using the US dollar stocks in real assets. Because the dollar well be worth much less in time. That is a chess game as well. The other players are of course, Iran the central Asian states, South America, Africa and Asia. I think the future is already written in relation to the demise of the last empire. If indeed this is the last empire than mankind is better for it.
I think the Russian's and the Chinese have already made their decision, at Ekaterinaberg recently I suspect the consensus was that the SCO were going to quietly dump the dollar, China has been across the planet buying as much real estate and resources it can without raising fears of an "economic nuke" thus minimising Chinese losses when the dollar finally tanks.
I imagine that sometime in the next year, Russia will announce it will no longer accept dollars for gas or oil and other resources and may even demand oil purchases in roubles which will force its convertibility and create a demand the petro-rouble, Iran has stopped using dollars and it may be that Chavez will announce that as well in the near future. Chavez knows full well that the US is critically dependent on his oil to about a fifth of its needs, by forcing the US to buy his oil in a different currency will hit hard at the American economy as will a Russian announcement of refusal to accept dollars.
Iraq will take years to offer any returns even if the US manages to forestall a change of oil bourse that is opened up to Euro's, Yuen and Roubles, Iraq will not present any relief for some time to come and Saudi Arabia is not able to supply the rest of the world AND the US, America will be trying to buy oil in a world that will see the dollar as worthless or second rate versus stronger currencies and so it spirals downwards.
But it will be the hawks of America that will drive that country into the abyss, notwithstanding the current situation in the Middle East, the US is seeking to open up a new front in Pakistan, parts of Asia and Africa, conflicts that America cannot afford. The nation is visibly crumbling daily when you look at the collapse of the middle class, the immersion of the lower class into poverty and joblessness, California isn't the only state in the US that is bankrupt.
I believe that the US, even at this late stage can salvage something workable, it requires bold strokes and it needs to follow the model of the end of British empire for it to survive as a whole, in short, instead of fulfilling Putin and his allies expectations, America needs to collapse its military empire and expeditions, cut at the root its military spending, plough as much money as it can in rebuilding the nation as a whole and building up goodwill that in time will yield good trade and economic reciprocation and through investment in its own nation, can emerge reborn as a strong nation seen as an equal on this planet, rather than a doddering dwindling master of a few client states.
But the military industrial complex, the corporations, the lobbyists won't allow this to happen, they believe in their own invulnerability despite the Iraqi's and Afghans showing them a clear message that they are very much paper tigers right now, it is those people that are sealing America's demise and like Napoleon, all Putin and his friends have to do is watch and wait...