Robert Fisk: Battle for the Islamic Republic
Iran's Supreme Leader and its officially elected president are terrified by the spectre of counter-revolution
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What we are now seeing is a regime which is far more worried than the Supreme Leader suggested when he threatened the opposition so baldly on Friday
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Now that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has placed himself shoulder to shoulder with his officially elected president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the very existence of the Islamic regime may now be questioned openly in a nation ever more divided between reformists and those who insist on maintaining the integrity of the 1979 revolution. Had Khamenei chosen a middle ground, some small compromises towards the countless millions – for in the election, it appears, they were indeed uncounted – who oppose Ahmadinejad, then he might have remained a neutral father-figure. Mir Hossein Mousavi and his supporters had religiously – in the most literal sense of the word – refused to criticise the Supreme Leader or the existence of the Islamic Republic during last week's street demonstrations
But reacting as all revolutionaries do even decades after they have come to power – for the spectre of counter-revolution remains with them until death – Khamenei chose to paint Ahmadinejad's political opponents as potential mercenaries, spies and agents of foreign powers. Treason in the Islamic Republic is, of course, punishable by death. But Khamenei's political alliance with his very odd and hallucinatory president may have sprung from fear as much as anger.
During his Friday prayers address at Tehran University, the Supreme Leader mentioned the dangers of a "velvet" revolution and it is clear that the regime has been deeply concerned by the democratic overthrow of Eastern European and west Asian governments since the fall of the Soviet Union. People power – through which the 1979 revolution was ultimately successful – is a devastating weapon (albeit the only one) in the armoury of a serious but unarmed political opposition.
In the aftermath of the Ahmadinejad "success" at the polls, his supporters were handing out leaflets condemning the secular revolutions of Eastern Europe, and their content says much about the anxieties of Iran's clerical leadership. One of them was entitled: "The system of trying to topple an Islamic Republic in a 'velvet revolution'." It then described how it believes Poland, Czechoslovakia, Ukraine and other nations won their freedom.
"'Velvet' or 'colourful' revolutions... are methods of exchanging power for social unrest. Colourful and 'velvet' revolutions occurred in post-communist societies of central and Eastern Europe and central Asia. Colourful revolutions have always been initiated during an election and its methods are as follows:
"1. Complete despair in the attitude of people when they are certain to lose an election...
"2. Choosing one particular colour which is selected solely for the Western media to identify (for their readers or viewers)." Mousavi used green as his campaign colour and his supporters still wear this colour on wristbands, scarves and bandannas.
"3) Announcing that there has been advance cheating before an election and repeating it non-stop afterwards... allowing exaggeration by the Western media, especially in the US.
"4) Writing letters to officials in the government, claiming vote-rigging in the election. It's interesting to note that in all such 'colourful' projects – for example, in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan – the Western-backed movements have warned of fraud before elections by writing to the incumbent governments. In Islamic Iran, these letters had already been written to the Supreme Leader."
Another leaflet maintained that a study – which Khamenei's advisers have obviously undertaken, however inaccurately – demonstrated that vote-rigging will be alleged on the very day of the election and that victory will be claimed by the opposition hours before the counting is finished and before their own defeat is announced. The results, says the document, will therefore already have a "background" of fraud. "In the final stages... supporters gather in front of the regime's official offices, holding colourful banners and protesting against vote-rigging." This part of the demonstration, the leaflet says, "is run by the foreign media who are the opposition movement's supporters so that they make good pictures and mislead the international community".
All this shows a unique and obsessive concern among the Supreme Leader's disciples about just how popular Mousavi's post-election campaign has become. Even the cutting of SMS and mobile communications – and in a sophisticated society such as Iran, this must have cost millions of dollars – did not prevent the calling of rallies which always assembled at the same moment and at the same place.
What we are now seeing is a regime which is far more worried than the Supreme Leader suggested when he threatened the opposition so baldly on Friday. Having refused any serious political dialogue with Mousavi and his opposition comrades – a few district recounts will produce no real change in the result – the Iranian regime, led by a Supreme Leader who is frightened and a president who speaks like a child, is now involved in the battle for control of the streets of Iran. It is a conflict which will need the kind of miracle in which Khamenei and Ahmadinejad both believe to avoid violence.
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Comments
The hidden hand (bankers) offered their money to farmer to use,so by time farmers cannot pay to banks,farmers will sell it to the bankers and stay as slave to the money owner !
The situation in Iran is the same like Red revolution ,Isfahan money owner divide the people to to fight to unstable the country because they failed to attack Iran by war.
Furthermore, we should remember the factional politics of Iran, and that Iranians know their domestic poltics better than foreigners do.
Unfortunately, I conclude, either of the ways, Khamenei had to lose his "Holy legitimacy"
Sermin Tekin
Istanbul
tekinsermin@gmail.com
It is time that dictators in this world learn that will be exposed and their autocratic ruling is simply a thing of the past centuries and has no place in the information age of the 21st century.
I say grow up and let the people choose.
If they want to be the underdog, they will elect the appropriate leaders, however that can not and must not be allowed to be forced on anybody with power, let along unlimited power.
Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely!
To those who reduce this conflict in Iran, as a mere tit for tat struggle between basiji youth and opposition youth, have no understanding of Iran's intricate political system.
In 1999, student uprisings were crushed. In 1988, the regime's opposition members were sent to the gallows by the truckload. In 2009, one thing is different. For the first time in the regime's official public profile, we have seen that the average Iranian is now no longer afraid to criticize the Supreme Leader himself - meaning......gone is the notion that Khomeini's velayate-faqih is an infallible system. Gone also, is the notion that the Supreme Leader, unelected and unrepresentative of the majority, should retain final word on all matters.
However, as with all revolutions and counter-revolutions, eventually, people need to eat. As such, the defiant marches, usually dwindle down to a small group of dedicated but hopelessly underpowered handful of youth. In a sad twist, we see youth on one side of the movement, highly educated, yet unemployed, living with soaring inflation, and no hope of a change for the better.... and youth on the other side of the movement, undereducated, unemployed, living with soaring inflation, and with no hope of a better future, who for a simple promise of food and a 'respected' role (to defend the Islamic Republic) are coopeted, with the result being the loss of innocence (Neda).
The current clash is not about Ahmadinejad vs. Musavi, nor is it about Khamenei vs Rafsanjani.......in my humble opinion, and in direct contrast to Iraq (Iraqis want something they never had....freedom), Iranians want back what they lost........the freedom to choose, to speak, to select their identity.....and this is where the greatest threat to the Islamic Republic lies..........the freedom to choose identity, equates to the final nail in the coffin for the system of velyate faqih.
thanks a lot for all the informative articles
Georgia has a worse dictator than ever before. The opposition is oppressed, some of them dissapeared without a trace. But Sakaashvilly (not sure how to spell his name in English) is supported by USA so all his missgivings are ignored. At the end it ended with the war with Russia.
The Ukrane is in chaos. Both parties have ripped the country apart. The northern Ukraing might even consider allience with Russia. People are poor and running away to the west. No law and order. Again - total support from USA.
It seems that USA is ready to fight any country that might ally themselves with Russia.
So I think Khamenei and Ahmadinejad might have a point in trying to supress the "green" Revolution in Iran to avoid the country falling into chaos and being torn apart by superpowers.
There is no guarantee that Mir Hossein Mousavi and his supporter are not going to arrest, toture and hang anyone who supported Ahmadinejad, just as did Shah and Islamic Revolutionists.