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Hamish McRae: When times are tough, you spend less. Why should it be any different for a government?

Wednesday, 28 May 2008

The Government is frightened of fuel protests. The blockade of the depots in September 2000 was the only serious civil protest it faced in its first term of office. It cost the country an estimated £1bn and led to the NHS being put on "red alert". For a very brief moment the Tories took the lead in the opinion polls. It also led to a huge amount of detailed planning by a task force chaired by Jack Straw on how to cope should that happen again.

While the Government did not offer explicit concessions, it subsequently abandoned the fuel escalator, whereby there were automatic above-inflation increases in fuel duty – a practice inherited from the Tory government.

The experience was a big lesson for Gordon Brown. It was the first occasion, at a time when the Government was fundamentally popular, that he had been forced to change tax policy. He does not himself drive, and his antennae had not picked up the way people react to fuel tax. People who have to fill up a car feel differently from those who don't.

Now however the problem is wider. The general level of taxation is somewhat higher – though not as high as many people think – and there is less inclination to give the Government the benefit of the doubt over its motives.

For example, are "green taxes" really about the environment or are they simply another way of squeezing out more revenue? The extra burden from higher road tax duty is a case in point. You can see why Labour backbenchers are running scared.

So what is to be done?

The reaction of most people, to judge by the polls, would be to wait for the democratic process to change the Government, and maybe on the way, its leader. But whether or not that turns out to be right, there is I think a credible way forward for the present government to respond, which would be consistent with its long-term objectives.

It might not win an election, but it would be the right thing to do. It is, in essence, what all companies have to do when under pressure: to comb through all their activities, their revenues as well as their costs, and see how they could do things better.

Start with a specific example. One of the difficulties the Government has over fuel and vehicle duty is that it appears to be insensitive to real people's concerns. Remember that the Revenue does well out of higher fuel prices, partly because of North Sea company taxation, though that is very complicated, and partly because part of the price we pay for fuel is VAT. So the higher the price of the fuel at the pumps the higher the tax take. There is a windfall gain.

Now it would not be difficult to fine-tune the tax system so that any additional revenue over and above a certain point was used to offset additional fuel costs. The proposition would be: we cannot do anything about the world oil price but we are not in the business of making extra revenue out of your discomfort.

There would be no prattling on about EU carbon targets or global climate change, which are separate longer-term issues. Nor, conversely, would the Government be trying to offset the climbing oil price by offering a subsidy. It would simply be a reassurance that the Government was not using high oil prices as cover for an increase in taxation.

This is similar to the way any wise commercial company would deal with a sense that it was not being quite fair to its customers when it had to raise prices. It would offer some sort of guarantee that additional funds were not being squirreled away to pay for some past errors and that when the price of the inputs came back down the customers would get the benefit.

That is the specific suggestion; now the more general one. It is quite hard now to remember the early years of Gordon Brown's chancellorship, the years when he really was prudent and when public spending was under tight control. With hindsight he probably squeezed down public spending too much in those years, actually cutting investment plans that had been made by the Tories and exacerbating transport and other problems later.

But his fundamental aim, to use public money cautiously, so that funds could be directed to the highest priority issues, was surely right. Somewhere along the way, this objective was lost. The rhetoric remained but the actuality became detached.

It is still to early to know quite why the huge increase in public spending that took place during his second and third terms of office, far larger than that of any other major economy, has produced such disappointing results. I suspect a lot of the problem has to do with the speed at which additional funds were fed into the system. When great wodges of new money hit any organisation these tend to be wasted. This happens to companies – and indeed to individuals – as much as to government departments. Then when tougher times hit, you comb through every item of cost and try and figure out how to do more with less.

That is what the Government has to do now. As it happens it has, far too late, started to do so. But there has not for several years, actually since the years of the first Blair/Brown government, been a culture of parsimony. In those first few years ministers would come forward and proudly present to the Treasury more and more ingenious ways to save money. The Treasury had to say: no, don't squeeze too hard or there will be problems later.

So what the Government needs to do is to recapture some of that ethos of its early years: that it can govern efficiently and well rather than simply throw money at problems. Then the money it saves can be used to hold down the deficit – or , cautiously and when justified, be feed back into the economy with tax cuts.

A Labour government that makes tax cuts, huh? Well actually Gordon Brown himself was very aware of the need to get overall tax rates down, hence his mismanaged move to two income tax bands, 20 per cent and 40 per cent, an objective originally set out by Nigel Lawson.

As for the drive to improve public sector productivity, his last two budgets had explicit targets for improved efficiency built into them. It was assumed that productivity would rise and this assumption enabled him to claim that the output of the public sector would carry on rising even though the years of large increases in spending were coming towards an end.

This isn't about ideology; it is about efficiency and it is about fairness. It is about efficiency because many people feel the Government is either wasting their money or at least spending it less carefully than they would themselves. During the long boom, that did not matter so much; now it matters hugely. And it is about fairness because seeing the Government rake in more revenue from higher fuel and vehicle licence fees just does not seem fair.

It is common sense, isn't it? Just about everybody now is having to look again at their spending. If it costs that much more to fill the tank, where is the saving going to come from? So why should the Government be different? Connecting with voters is not saying "we feel your pain". It is doing the same thing as they are doing: economising on their spending, figuring out how to get things done with less money.

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Comments

23 Comments

I should like to see Brown et al set an example and walk from Downing Street to the Commons. Minor but hugely significant of sincerity to that which is preached.

Posted by OC | 29.05.08, 00:00 GMT

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This is a waste of effort; this Government cannot change its free spending ways. The only way is to get the Conservatives in sooner rather than later; I'm afraid that is all you can do. You better pray you don't have to wait two years for it though as the cost will keep rising. In my industry I deal with a Government regulator who spends tens of millions of pounds and even now is pushing on with massive new projects that, if cancelled, would not be missed by a single member of the public. Jobs for the boys....

Posted by jules_london | 28.05.08, 17:39 GMT

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Some thoughts...
- Labour's spending policies in the first few years were not their own but those of the Tories they had just replaced.
- Save money? Easy. Abolish plans for id cards and NHS database. Saving = £5 billion + £12 billion = £17 billion (conservative estimates)
- The increase in oil from $84 to $125 means an extra £1 billion in the Exchequer, vs a cost of postponing VED increases of £550. They can afford to do both.

Posted by tubster | 28.05.08, 16:33 GMT

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Should the Government take their share of the increase in fuel costs? Of course they should. Should they reduce expenditure? Of course.

How? Well, let’s start with the MPs themselves. They should cut ALL MPs expenses to the bare minimum. After all, we all have to live on our salaries, they should do likewise. We don’t have “subsistence” expenses to live on, so they should cut back what they spend of what is essentially our money.

After all, if they went into politics for money, then they’re in the wrong job.

As for “Green Taxes”, how about actually using the money they are taking from us to fund research into non-fossil fuel sources, and work towards cutting our oil dependency? Why not offer tax breaks on solar panel installations or home wind turbines? Why is always tax, tax, tax?

They seem to have forgotten that they are there to SERVE the public, not to milk us of every penny!

Posted by CM | 28.05.08, 16:19 GMT

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The reason all that money was wasted is far simpler than you attempt to describe; incompetence, venal ideology, centralisation and control by people with no experience of working in the real world.

Simple. Billions - of OUR money - wasted

Posted by Jeremy Poynton | 28.05.08, 15:46 GMT

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Brown's aim in taxation policy has been all to do with window dressing: reducing the headline rate of income tax but increasing national insurance; allowing fiscal drag to bring more people into taxation; introducing scores of stealth taxes in the safe knowledge that the more complicated it becomes the more difficult it will be for people to follow.

As for public sector productivity, much of it isn't productive at all. And the biggest chunk of it is killing tens of thousands through hospital acquired infections, and hundreds of thousands by destroying unborn babies.

Posted by Ben Elford | 28.05.08, 14:07 GMT

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For a start they could stop throwing the price of six aircraft supercarriers at City bonus junkies.

They should then take note of the fact that the rocketing price of oil is transferring masses of spending power from oil consumers to oil producers, which will not necessarily be re-spent into the economy. That is the stuff of which recessions are made.

So, instead of 'economising' like a housewife Parliament has to compensate for this loss of spending power by creating new money out of nothing, and by spending and investing it in alternative energy sources.

Posted by Michael Petek | 28.05.08, 13:20 GMT

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What this government doesn't seem to understand is that the whole tax system is revenue neutral, particularly in a downturn- the more you tax the less people will be able to spend, the less VAT you'll get and, if jobs are actually lost, the less income tax and the more you'll have to pay in benefits. Every effort Gordon Brown makes to try to keep or raise revenue is actually undermining next year's.

Posted by Monocle | 28.05.08, 13:02 GMT

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Some Government economising is an excellent idea.

1 - Don't renew Trident
2 - No more PFI contracts
3 - Cut back on consultants
4 - Stop subsidies for train companies and impose fare restrictions and massive fines for cancelled services. Then renationalise them when they complain. At the moment most rail subsidies are about the same as shareholder payouts.
5 - Spend some of the money saved in investing in renewable energy like France and Germany are doing on a massive scale.

Posted by Gonzologist | 28.05.08, 12:52 GMT

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With ref to Carl H's comments below, to combine VED with fuel tax and come up with a system which is easier and cheaper to administer - any logical person would look at such a scheme and say that it was a no-brainer!

Which begs the questions - is there more to VED than meets the eye?

Over the life time of this Gov there has been a massive increase in the use technology to track and catch people who do not pay their VED. So much so, that there is now a network of cameras around this country that can read you number plate and reference it to a massive database and of course - track your vehicle. This is a system the STASI could only have dreamed about!!!!

Handy that it's been built on the back of VED evadors - without VED there would not be such an easy cover for what is a MASSIVE invasion of individual freedom - but then that's Labour Gov's for you.

Someone else asked what this Gov agenda actually was - try reading 1984 - there are lots of policies from there that have been implemented under this Gov.

Posted by Jim | 28.05.08, 12:36 GMT

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23 Comments

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