Matthew Taylor: Brown should declare a ceasefire
He finds it almost impossible to connect with swathes of the electorate
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Independent Minds
Today's poll confirms the Brown bounce was of the dead cat variety. The talk in Government is of being on election footing but unless Labour's strategists are willing to respond to dangerous times with bold ways of thinking David Cameron can start counting down the days to power.
Until a few weeks ago, there was a genuine sense of hope in Labour ranks. Ministers sensed a powerful combination in public opinion; on the one hand, a rejection of the free market individualism held responsible for the credit crunch, on the other, disenchantment with a faltering Tory response to the crisis that seemed out of step with the rest of the world, including Saint Obama.
The reality, however, is more prosaic. It turns out Labour's poll improvement reflected misapprehension not realignment. Many voters believed the hype and thought the first bank bailout might be an end to the crisis. But, as the blip in economic optimism has passed, so has Labour's modest advance in the polls.
As for the Conservatives' position, for Westminster insiders and policy wonks, there is plenty with which to take issue. Across many policies there seems a mismatch between the rhetorical pose of Team Cameron and the policy detail. But the facts are simple. Labour has been in power for three terms, the economy is a disaster area, David Cameron has detoxified the Tory brand and Gordon Brown finds it almost impossible to connect with swathes of the electorate.
Labour strategists cling to the little noticed fact that tax, benefit and interest rate changes mean people who don't rely on savings or expect to lose their jobs (which is most of us) will enjoy a faster rise in disposable income this year than in almost a decade. But if Labour is to benefit politically from green shoots in 2010 it has to persuade the voters not to make their minds up before then. And perhaps the single biggest characteristic of voter attitudes in the last two years has been volatility; no one predicted the Brown honeymoon, the collapse, or the mini revival. Which is why the last thing Labour should be doing is to start fighting a long election campaign. With the economy as it is now, Labour has no chance of winning a conventional battle. Most of the team that helped Tony Blair win three elections is now back inside the Brown tent but ageing strategists, like generals, are always prone to fight the last battle.
A techie friend of mine recently characterised Labour's attempts to adopt Obama-style internet campaigning as like "watching your grandfather dancing to hip-hop".
In that context, any strategy may fail but Labour should consider a more radical departure from past practice. How about declaring a unilateral political ceasefire? Brown's implicit message could be 'we are reconciled to the possibility of losing the next election, what matters now is not the political skirmish but the battle against the economic crisis'.
Not only is this a more seemly and inspiring posture for the times – and one which might tap into the Dunkirk spirit the nation needs right now – it encourages an electorate, for whom politics is far from a priority, to suspend judgement until next year.
The strategy would only work if it was authentic. Ministers would need to put point scoring to one side. And even if it failed, at least this would be an honourable path to defeat. After Thatcher and Blair, we tend to think new Governments will get at least three terms, but those who remember the 1970s recall when the parties took it in turns to fail on the economy. We may live in a world that feels it is changing daily, but the Government needs to play a long game.
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Comments
Best thing for him to do therefore, is to admit that he is not placed to choose for this nations interests but that the people themselves are. He should call a general election for our sake and not hang on aimlessly and hopelessly for his own sake.
As for "green shoots" in the spring of 2010, forget it. Firstly, America's green shoots must come first and we'll be a full year behind them. Secondly, we cannot go back to what we had as that was an illusion created by illusionary credit. This is to all intents and purposes dead now for the world not just here but everywhere. People have woken up to it and they now have the power as consumers and savers, and without their confidence it will never change. It cannot change whilst Brown removes their confidence so he has to go. Then when people are confident and when they have a market to sell into again and when America's economy is under repair, we can change it, but it will take a revolutionary change and a reversal of many of the things Brown and Blair have done on the back of the credit bubble which Brown maintains was not his problem. He should admit it to himself and then the country can move on with him and his Labour cronies out the way. He can then say "what matters now is not the political skirmish but the battle against the economic crisis" after he's admitted being the cause of it.
I can only assume that the 28% is principally composed of the overinflated Civil Service that he has created and the millions of Benefit-scroungers (I don't include here those who are genuinely unable to work or to find employment but those who chose not to work because it is now not economically viable to earn a wage or salary) and, of course, the millions of immigrants who have never contributed a penny in their lives to income tax or National Insurance and who are claiming for several wives and children, many of whom are of working age.
At the moment, the party seems to be in bed with the toffs and shirkers. The bankers have not been investigated, let alone punished for the crisis. There are millions of shirkers and millions of people on the country's payroll who are just jobsworths, and thousands who can only be described as fat cats. Frank Field was sacked when he threatened this.
Meanwhile the little man is expected to pay for all this with 50% taxation.
If Mr Brown wants to be reelected, he must do something about this by becoming more left wing.
) may well rise, but 1% will not be noticeable; it will ony replace what Brown has stolen in taxes; it will be taken away next year or the year after when taxes rise.
The electorate took longer to wake up to this than it should have done (where were you, BBC?), but now it has. Labour trashed its own credibility and integrity, and will - deservedly - pay the price. There is no escape.