Rupert Cornwell: A step forward, but there's a long way to go yet
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Independent Minds
Almost every well prepared summit produces a "surprise". This "reset" summit between the US and Russia yielded heavily trailed agreements whereby Washington will be able to use Russian airspace to carry troops and material to Afghanistan, and the two countries will cut their strategic nuclear arsenals to as few as 1,500 warheads apiece by 2016.
Less expected was President Obama's intent, declared at his joint press conference with his opposite number Dmitri Medvedev, to convene a nuclear security summit next year to tackle proliferation, with Moscow in line to host a follow-up soon afterwards.
The move not only addresses the spread of nuclear weapons, perhaps the most dangerous threat to global stability. It is also implicit US acknowledgement of Moscow's importance – a key element in any long-term improvement in ties after the recent strains between the former superpower rivals.
Yesterday's encounter was a step forward – though it could hardly have been otherwise after the chill of the later years of the George W Bush administration. Mr Obama and Mr Medvedev, men of a similar generation, seem to have struck up a decent working relationship. Meanwhile the Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, plainly gets on a good deal better with Hillary Clinton than he did with Condoleezza Rice.
But the Medvedev/Putin conundrum persists: who has the last word in Kremlin policy-making? By saying that any decision will be that of the Russian government as a whole, Mr Obama neatly sidestepped the question.
Mr Medvedev has on occasion seemed less authoritarian on domestic issues, and more conciliatory on foreign policy than his predecessor. However Vladimir Putin – now the Prime Minister – remains Russia's most popular politician, in part thanks to his uncompromising line on the US, and his insistence that the former superpower must be respected as it was before the collapse of Communism.
Polls show Mr Putin's compatriots broadly agree, for Russians remain deeply sceptical of the new US President. The most lasting success of this summit would be if Mr Obama changed Russian opinions of himself, and by extension of the country he leads.
As for the vaunted "reset", events will show whether it is more than wishful thinking in Washington. On Iran for instance, both leaders expressed concern over Tehran's nuclear ambitions. But the crunch will only come when Moscow has to decide whether to back much tougher UN sanctions against the Islamic regime, all but inevitable assuming Iran does not relent in its uranium enrichment programme.
Of Nato expansion, particularly as it relates to Georgia and Ukraine, there was little mention. Both presidents did not conceal they were divided on other major issues, most notably US plans for a missile defence system in central Europe, which could yet scupper hopes for strategic arms cuts.
On missile defence, Mr Obama flatly ruled out any direct link between the strategic arms cuts and abandonment of the missile defence system. "Under no scenario" were the installations in the Czech Republic and Poland aimed at providing protection from "the mighty Russian arsenal".
But a chink remains open: the internal US review of whether the system can actually meet its modest proclaimed goal, of dealing with what the US President called "a stray missile from a third source" (ie Iran or North Korea). If it concludes that missile defence fails that test, a deal could be possible. But Mr Obama will not give up something for nothing in this new round of nuclear bargaining.
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Comments
I agree that why UK dances a step forw.. ooops
for now a back and wodn move your arms and good bye
I thank you
Firozali A. Mulla
All rubbish news today from Putin to Poland and missiles. There are no shake hands between Brown and G8 Brown wants to spend, spend, and spend as if this is money Crazy.
Obama goes back to school again fifth time, and Sarah Palin is laughing her head off in the tub filled with the rose water. ?The president and I agreed that the relationship between Russia and the United States has suffered from a sense of drift ... President Medvedev and I are committed to leaving behind the suspicion and rivalry of the past.? Obama
?My understanding is, President Medvedev is the president and Prime Minister Putin is the prime minister.? Obama.
I have the following contribution please read this as I think this will a plenty of room to the all. There are two men. One is dumb. He cannot speak. One is blind he cannot see. The dumb needs water he puts his hands like a cup to show he wants a drink of water. How does blind ask for water?
If you take a sane man and put him in the mental asylum. What do you expect of this man after few months? Will he be the same man dressing implacably as he used to?
Take a very soft-spoken youth and put him in the village of all who shout at one another and swear as the swearing is the part of life and take one youth from this and put him in the place of the one who is very quite.
The 1st will become very arrogant and the second who was arrogant will be a
gentleman. Blind says,? I want water?. He can speak!!!!!!!!
one mile, take a duradel for headache, 1¼, , take a duradel for headache 1½, take a duradel for headache 1 ¾, take a duradel for headache 2 , take a duradel for headache and so on you have a headache and you rich the store what do you ask for , take a duradel for headache
I thank you
Firozali A. Mulla
In just the same way that Obama bowed before the Saudi King on meeting him a few moths ago, so too will he eventually kowtow to Medvedev/Putin. I wouldn't be surprised to see him, sometime in the future, either scrap US plans for the missile defence system in central Europe, or, even worse, respond in his usual weak & lame manner should Russia invade Georgia or the Ukraine.
We saw, last Summer, that Obama was clueless in his reaction to Russia's invasion of Georgia. He was even more off the mark with his response to the Mousavi/Ahmadinajad power struggle. And, each North Korean missile launch just further reinforces the perception that he's weak.
Obama DESPERATELY needs help on foreign policy. He showed poor judgement in selecting such an error-prone vice president as Joe Biden, and so it begger's belief that he appers to have side-lined Hillary Clinton.
Just where is Hillary? Perhaps he's trying to undermine her for proving beyond any doubt during the Tehran riots, that when it comes to competence, judgement, and even owning a huge pair of testicles, she beats the President hands down on all fronts.