Leading article: Sarkozy's small steps in Moscow
Monday, 8 September 2008
Nicolas Sarkozy faces a hard task when he travels to Moscow today in an attempt to bridge East-West differences over the Georgia crisis that have, if anything, widened in recent weeks. A month after the Georgian government launched its ill-fated assault on the breakaway region of South Ossetia, the French President, who holds the EU presidency, has to persuade Russia to abide by the six-point peace plan he brokered. This would involve Russia withdrawing forces from Georgia proper, agreeing to the free movement of monitors in a buffer zone between South Ossetia and Georgia and initiating a framework for security talks between Tblisi and Moscow.
This was never going to be easy, given the mood of bullish triumphalism in the Kremlin. Feelings in Russia have hardened, however, in the aftermath of the trip to Georgia and Ukraine made by the US Vice-President, Dick Cheney, not to mention the visits to Tblisi by David Miliband and David Cameron, all of which became occasions for much windy rhetoric on the theme of Russia's forthcoming "punishment". This empty and aggressive talk has not helped Georgia one whit, encouraging the Russians to dig in. In the meantime, Russia has retaliated, principally by recognising Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states.
M. Sarkozy must draw on all his diplomatic skills in the Kremlin, distancing himself from the inflammatory language of his British allies, and making clear that Europe will not unthinkingly follow America's lead in the Caucasus. At the same time, he must coolly remind the Kremlin that Europe neither recognises Georgia's breakaway regions as states nor accepts as valid the absurd comparison Russia drew between South Ossetia, population 70,000, and Kosovo, population two million-plus.
The best case scenario is one in which all sides accept only limited gains can be made at this stage. Europe needs to accept it cannot coerce Russia into withdrawing from South Ossetia, but may be able to persuade it to withdraw from Georgia proper. The Russians, meanwhile, need to reconsider their tit-for-tat tactics and note that the longer Georgia is kept "on the boil", the more international opinion will harden against them.
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Comments
34 Comments
Ed,
Georgian opposition will have much more weight now, as Saakashvili exposed himself as comletely incompetent. Putin is not running a dictatorship, that is a bit rediculous statement. May be you don't know what dictatorship is.
Human Rights Watch was there on Aug. 13 and 44 dead were in just one hospital in the city of Tshinvali. As Tshinvali was almost distroyed, it is obvious that the death tall was going to be higher as colapsed buildings were going to be dug up. It is not obvious to you of course since you obviously only accept your virsion of the truth. Russia released a figure of 133 dead civilian, and it is my suspition that its only those that are registered Russian citizens. South Ossetian authorities today claimed that they recovered 500 bodies. Is it your point of view that the less the death toll, the less justified Russians were in their responce? In your opinion, what kind of death tall would justify Russia responding the way they did?
Posted by FromUSAwithLove | 10.09.08, 00:09 GMT
Oh and 'finally' yourself, the Georgian opposition were calling for Saakashvili to step down long before the crisis and I'm sure they will continue to do so afterwards.
Ultimately, as the Georgian opposition has said themselves, that will be up to the Georgian people, not the Kremlin with their bully-boy tactics, to decide.
(There's a Georgian opposition I hear you say. Wow, Saakashvili's not running much of dictatorship is he. Maybe he should take some lessons from Putin.)
Posted by Ed | 09.09.08, 21:34 GMT
FromUSAwithLove - Are you being deliberately obtuse merely to cling on to your pro-Russian standpoint? Could you enlighten us all as to what that new figure is then?
Earlier you quoted HRW to support your argument. The accusation of war crimes in the villages you refer to were actually levelled at Russia for allowing extensive ethnic-cleansing and attacks on civilians. I'm not saying that is a definitive figure, but the report of Human Rights Watch that referred to 44 dead is so far the only alternative report we have to Russian claims of 'genocide'.
The Russians have been in charge of the area for one month. They have had a classical concert in the city and yet have still not provided evidence for anything approaching a death toll of 2000. Have they allowed an independent investigation? No. What are they hiding?
Unfortunately it seems to you and your ilk reporting is only 'independent' if you agree with it.
Posted by Ed | 09.09.08, 21:23 GMT
Finally, Georgian opposition is calling for Saakashvili to step down. I suspect he will be out of power around the time Bush and Chaney will be out, or within six month maximum.
This guy David Gamkredlidze, just got back from Washington, and it seems to me that Washington is unhappy with Saakashvili and they want to get rid of him quitely, unlike they did with Saddam, before he did something more stupid and caused political damage to his US allies.
Posted by FromUSAwithLove | 09.09.08, 20:51 GMT
Ed,
The 44 casualty count was reported by Human Rights Watch a few days after the coflict, and that figure was pulled from the report awhile ago, and death toll have been updated. You are probably referring to an old cashe of the original report. I'm not sure if you are doing it on purpose to support your point of view, or if you just don't know any better.
There is a lot of independent reporting available on this conflict and the truth is there for all to see, if they wish to see it.
Posted by FromUSAwithLove | 09.09.08, 19:42 GMT
Dear Ed,
no need to trust HRW data either. Anyway, when I mention the evidence I mean the photographs of ruined South Ossetian capital (not one or two houses in Georgia proper) but the whole town. Everyone who has eyes can estimate the damage and casualties. You too. Moreover, there are many independent camera shooting in the internet, if you hate so much the russian poit of veiw. I do not give you any links since I am sure that you would not trust them either. I just hope that you can google on your own honestly, as well as I could.
Recently the more or less independent people from OSCE have visited this capital and surrounding villages. They are appalled with the hypocrisy of US paid mass media and georgian president. Some of the people from OSCE say that their estimation of casualties among civilians is much higher than HRW's one.
Posted by Ele | 09.09.08, 10:58 GMT
actuallty a good comment Ed. Since Russia has not been able to prove their version about genocide I am becoming increasingly skeptical about it.
Actually if it turns out to be a lie I will feel quiet better just to know that the civil casualties were much less.
Still I think that the Bush administration is behind the crisis and Russia's answer was an answer in their sick game of power.
Winner 1 - McCain
Winner 2 - Pentagon/NATO
Winner 3 - Weapons manufactires in both sides
Winner 4 - Oil companies continue to make huge profit
Loser 1 - Georgian and South Ossetian civilians
Loser 2 - I think Russia will eventually lose more in diplomatic, economic and military terms that the two provinces they are getting control.
Unsettled: Saakashvilli... what will happen to him? will he face a war criminal for ordering theattack on civilian population? or will he be let free to enjoy the island in the caribean sea that probably US gave him for his loyal service???
Posted by mynystry | 09.09.08, 09:31 GMT
I am not seeking to justify anything or anyone including Saakashvili. I would just prefer to wait for a neutral report on what happened in Tskinvali rather than buy into Russian tales of genocide. While the Russian government originally claimed 2000 dead which they have since massively reduced, Human Rights Watch estimated 44 dead including militia. These claims of 'genocide' are not only totally irresponsible but have tragically been used to incite and justify attacks on innocent civilians.
I would simply point out to the Putinettes cheerleading squad filling up every article on the crisis that trying to paint Russia as a pure of heart boyscout just doing a good deed, while being not only laughable, also requires the amazing ability to accept the Russian version of events unquestioningly while filtering out everything else as part of the worldwide media conspiracy against poor misunderstood Russia. Oh, and you need to say 'neo-con' and 'Kosovo' a lot, apparently.
Posted by Ed | 09.09.08, 00:46 GMT
"This was never going to be easy, given the mood of bullish triumphalism in the Kremlin."
Come on, stop using that language, Russians are not a football mob. I can't see any signs of "bullish triumphalism" in the Kremlin. I can see only a rather wise quiet pragmatic approach. Taking into consideration the way the UE under US leadership treated Russia over last 16 odd years it is only a natural reaction of selfpreservation.
They had no any other choice.
Posted by Alex | 08.09.08, 21:31 GMT
Yeah mynystry - the UK is the ugly little cretinous beast joined at the hip to the American monster (like in a Monty Python film). Of course, the other wart-like parasite on the American body is the peace-loving nation of Israel.
Posted by USurers | 08.09.08, 20:18 GMT
34 Comments