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Leading article: The next colonial scramble

Friday, 25 July 2008

The news that massive deposits of oil and gas have been found in the Arctic confirms what geologists, oil companies and governments have believed for decades: that these icy wastes house vast fossil fuel resources. But the precise estimate now made by the United States Geological Survey – suggesting that the region contains about one-third of the world's undiscovered gas and about one-sixth of its undiscovered oil – is bound, at a time of high oil prices, to accelerate what could well be the world's last great colonial scramble.

That scramble has been proceeding steadily, without much fanfare, for some time. There are already more than 400 oil and gas fields north of the Arctic Circle. Shell has quietly spent $2bn (£1bn) acquiring drilling leases off Alaska. ExxonMobil and BP have spent huge sums on exploration rights off Canada. Just last week the US government lifted a 17-year ban on offshore drilling to make the US less reliant on imports.

The powers that border the Arctic – Canada, the United States, Russia, Norway and Denmark – have begun jostling for advantage. Last year a Russian submarine planted a flag under the North Pole to stake its claim. Canada is talking about commissioning 12 new nuclear-powered submarines to patrol the waters. Moscow has built a huge fleet of heavy icebreakers.

Environmental arguments – about the need to preserve this final pristine wilderness and to protect endangered species and the 160,000 remaining Inuit who have lived in the High Arctic for thousands of years – are being brushed aside, as ever. But the context is different now.

The Arctic is one of the most prominent battlegrounds in the fight against global warming. It is a bitter irony that oil extraction is now more feasible, and economic, than before because the ice has been melted thanks to climate change. The further release of methane trapped in the thawing permafrost could accelerate that, perhaps uncontrollably.

Instead of scrambling into Arctic exploration what governments and energy companies should be doing is exploring alternatives to oil. Even these massive new finds in the Arctic will only meet current world demand for three years. And that demand is rising.

China now has 30 million drivers and, like India, a middle class which is mushrooming. And no matter how much oil is found, it will be no solution, for burning more oil will only add to the vicious circle in which the ecology of the planet is confined. It would be best if the Arctic were to remain an inaccessible wilderness. We need to look for solutions elsewhere.

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Globally, the best renewable resource is solar energy. North Africa receives about three times the solar energy of the UK. Every year each square kilometre of hot deserts receive solar energy equivalent to 1.5 million barrels of oil (about 240 million litres). Solar factories can tap into this using concentrated solar power (CSP) plants. These are quite different from photovoltaics, and use mirrors to concentrate sunlight to create heat which is used to raise steam to drive steam turbines and electricity generators. An area of just 127km x 127km covered with CSP plants would produce as much electricity as Europe is using now. google TREC UK

Posted by Javed | 25.07.08, 16:48 GMT

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i'm sorry but i just don't care any more. I look around and see all the selfish stupid people all grasping for what they can regardless of any consequences for anyone else and I find I no longer care what happens.

Maybe this happens to us all as we get older.

There are not enough people who are willing to make serious, meaningful changes unless change is forced upon them, eg by rising oil prices.

So now I am going to enjoy the party while it lasts and to hell with the lot of you.

Posted by Old Cynic | 25.07.08, 14:09 GMT

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The North Sea could be made of pure diesel but we still wouldn't be any richer by burning it. We have gone over the positive feedback hump. Every litre of carbon based fuel burnt is another nail in the coffin of stable food production and decent weather that doesn't damage our constructions to a higher cost than the immediate cost benefit we obtained from the burning of that fuel. In other words to carry on down this road we would have to be completely mad, ..... so I guess we will carry on then. Why aren't Shell speaking up about why they pulled out of the world's biggest wind investment in March I wonder? What are they investing in instead, and it isn't oil. Google, Shell Boffin Sinclair and choose "I'm Feeling Lucky". You can be sure of Shell, ..... if you are one of their shareholders but not if you just happen to share the planet with them it seems.

Posted by John | 25.07.08, 13:27 GMT

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The old adage "what goes around,comes around" applies to big

money too.Those brave and wise decision makers at Shell, Exxon,

et al may want to re-consider,as they continue to tread over the

'thin ice'.

Posted by John Finn | 25.07.08, 03:40 GMT

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