The Grand National is finally here and for twelve months now punters have been backing Grand National runners in the hope of finding the winner of the most difficult puzzle in racing. Judging by previous renewals of the Grand National though there are horses who would perhaps be better off not lining up in the race with the winner often having a certain profile each year. Stats can be used to narrow down the field dramatically and many fancied runners this year don’t fit the usual profile of a Grand National winner. All of the Grand National Runners are listed in full here
The Grand National attracts a variety of ages not only in who is betting on the race but also in the horses that line up in the Grand National field. The youngest horse in the race will be 7 years old whilst the oldest horse in the race is twice that age, 14 year old Hello Bud is looking to improve on his fifth in this race two years ago. However, he is certainly up against it as far as winning the Grand National goes. All the winners since the war have been between 8 and 12 with 9 and 10 year olds doing best of all in recent years (the last seven winners have been 9 or 10). The most strongly fancied horse who is ruled out through age this year is Organisedconfusion, this 7 year old is as short as 20/1 and might have a better chance in future years.
Weight can often be the best way of ruling a runner out of the Grand National as no horse has managed to carry more than 11-5 to victory since Red Rum last won the race in 1977. That is bad news for both Synchronised and last year’s winner Ballabriggs who are the two top weights off 11-10 and 11-09 respectively. With those two horses currently trading in the first five in the Grand National betting, this stat really narrows down the betting options and also rules out Weird Al, Neptune Collonges and Calgary Bay.
A horse needs plenty of stamina to win the Grand National as it is the longest race in the racing calendar, run over four and a half miles. The last ten winners had won a race under rules over at least three miles heading into the Grand National and if anything, you want a horse proven over a little further but by applying this statistic to the Grand National field you can take out two well fancied runners. Seabass and Becauseicouldntseeare both 20/1 at the time of writing and neither have won over three miles or more in a proper race.
You also want a horse with plenty of experience in the Grand National, the last ten winners had all run at least ten times over fences which is no surprise, the Grand National fences are extremely daunting and you wouldn’t really want a horse thrown in at the deep end in the Grand National. Several of the well fancied Grand National runners potentially lack the experience required to win this race, On His Own and Cappa Bleu have both run just six times over fences and will surely have a better chance next year whilst Junior and Shakalakaboomboom also fail to meet the ten chase runs stat and as a result are not considered. You also want a horse to have won a chase worth at least £17,000 to prove their class for this race but all the fancied horses not to meet this stat have already been ruled out due to other stats.
The above ‘must have’ stats that have proved crucial for finding the Grand National winner in recent years rule out over half the field this year, sixteen horses currently remain, but that is still too many runners to back. The safer bets in this race may have faced the Grand National fences on a previous occasion and with seven of the last twelve winners having run over the Grand National fences before, it looks a good idea to narrow down the field dramatically by putting a line through horses with no Grand National fence experience. Ability to jump is also crucial so horses who have fallen more than twice in their career look likely to struggle and if we also take out those horses that leaves just five horses now and they are West End Rocker, Killyglen, The Midnight Club, Rare Bob and Vic Venturi. It is also worth noting that a huge 17 of the last 21 Grand National winners started at 20/1 or less, clear proof that the bookies know what they are doing, and the only horses from this list that look capable of starting at those odds are West End Rocker and Killyglen.
Visit Grand-National-Guide.co.uk to pick up a free bet to back these two horses that could be the most likely winners of this year’s Grand National.
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