Sponsored features

Grand National stats show the best runners to back


The Grand National is finally here and for twelve months now
punters have been backing Grand National runners in the hope of
finding the winner of the most difficult puzzle in racing. Judging
by previous renewals of the Grand National though there are horses
who would perhaps be better off not lining up in the race with the
winner often having a certain profile each year. Stats can be used
to narrow down the field dramatically and many fancied runners this
year don’t fit the usual profile of a Grand National winner.
All of the Grand National Runners
are listed in full here

The Grand National attracts a variety of ages not only in who is betting on the race but also in the horses that line up in the Grand National field. The youngest horse in the race will be 7 years old whilst the oldest horse in the race is twice that age, 14 year old Hello Bud is looking to improve on his fifth in this race two years ago. However, he is certainly up against it as far as winning the Grand National goes. All the winners since the war have been between 8 and 12 with 9 and 10 year olds doing best of all in recent years (the last seven winners have been 9 or 10). The most strongly fancied horse who is ruled out through age this year is Organisedconfusion, this 7 year old is as short as 20/1 and might have a better chance in future years.

Weight can often be the best way of ruling a runner out of the Grand National as no horse has managed to carry more than 11-5 to victory since Red Rum last won the race in 1977. That is bad news for both Synchronised and last year’s winner Ballabriggs who are the two top weights off 11-10 and 11-09 respectively. With those two horses currently trading in the first five in the Grand National betting, this stat really narrows down the betting options and also rules out Weird Al, Neptune Collonges and Calgary Bay.

A horse needs plenty of stamina to win the Grand National as it is the longest race in the racing calendar, run over four and a half miles. The last ten winners had won a race under rules over at least three miles heading into the Grand National and if anything, you want a horse proven over a little further but by applying this statistic to the Grand National field you can take out two well fancied runners. Seabass and Becauseicouldntseeare both 20/1 at the time of writing and neither have won over three miles or more in a proper race.


You also want a horse with plenty of experience in the Grand National, the last ten winners had all run at least ten times over fences which is no surprise, the Grand National fences are extremely daunting and you wouldn’t really want a horse thrown in at the deep end in the Grand National. Several of the well fancied Grand National runners potentially lack the experience required to win this race, On His Own and Cappa Bleu have both run just six times over fences and will surely have a better chance next year whilst Junior and Shakalakaboomboom also fail to meet the ten chase runs stat and as a result are not considered. You also want a horse to have won a chase worth at least £17,000 to prove their class for this race but all the fancied horses not to meet this stat have already been ruled out due to other stats.

The above ‘must have’ stats that have proved crucial for finding the Grand National winner in recent years rule out over half the field this year, sixteen horses currently remain, but that is still too many runners to back. The safer bets in this race may have faced the Grand National fences on a previous occasion and with seven of the last twelve winners having run over the Grand National fences before, it looks a good idea to narrow down the field dramatically by putting a line through horses with no Grand National fence experience. Ability to jump is also crucial so horses who have fallen more than twice in their career look likely to struggle and if we also take out those horses that leaves just five horses now and they are West End Rocker, Killyglen, The Midnight Club, Rare Bob and Vic Venturi. It is also worth noting that a huge 17 of the last 21 Grand National winners started at 20/1 or less, clear proof that the bookies know what they are doing, and the only horses from this list that look capable of starting at those odds are West End Rocker and Killyglen. 

Visit Grand-National-Guide.co.uk to pick up a free bet to back these two horses that could be the most likely winners of this year’s Grand National.

Suggested Topics
Susan Sarandon described David Bowie as
peopleSusan Sarandon reveals more on her David Bowie romance
sportDidier Drogba returns to Chelsea on one-year deal
Arts and Entertainment
The Secret Cinema performance of Back to the Future has been cancelled again
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Arts and Entertainment
Christian Grey cradles Ana in the Fifty Shades of Grey film
filmFifty Shades of Grey trailer provokes moral outrage in US
BBC broadcaster and presenter Evan Davis, who will be taking over from Jeremy Paxman on Newsnight
peopleForget Paxman - what will Evan Davis be like on Newsnight?
Louis van Gaal would have been impressed with Darren Fletcher’s performance against LA Galaxy during Manchester United’s 7-0 victory
The new dawn heralded by George Osborne has yet to rise
voicesJames Moore: As the Tories rub their hands together, the average voter will be asking why they're not getting a piece of the action
Dejan Lovren celebrates scoring for Southampton although the goal was later credited to Adam Lallana
newsComedy club forced to apologise as maggots eating a dead pigeon fall out of air-conditioning
Arts and Entertainment
Jo Brand says she's mellowed a lot
tvJo Brand says shows encourage people to laugh at the vulnerable
Life and Style
People may feel that they're procrastinating by watching TV in the evening
Rhys Williams
commonwealth games
Isis fighters travel in a vehicle as they take part in a military parade along the streets of Syria's northern Raqqa province
Arts and Entertainment
Southern charm: Nicolas Cage and Tye Sheridan in ‘Joe’
filmReview: Actor delivers astonishing performance in low budget drama
Life and Style
fashionLatex dresses hit the catwalk to raise awareness for HIV and Aids
Caption competition
Caption competition
Latest stories from i100
Daily Quiz
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Independent Dating

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

Career Services
iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

Senior Risk Manager - Banking - London - £650

£600 - £650 per day: Orgtel: Conduct Risk Liaison Manager - Banking - London -...

Commercial Litigation Associate

Highly Attractive Package: Austen Lloyd: CITY - COMMERCIAL LITIGATION - GLOBAL...

Systems Manager - Dynamics AX

£65000 - £75000 per annum + Benefits: Progressive Recruitment: The client is a...

Service Delivery Manager (Software Development, Testing)

£40000 - £45000 per annum: Ashdown Group: A well-established software house ba...

Day In a Page

Evan Davis: The BBC’s wolf in sheep’s clothing to take over at Newsnight

The BBC’s wolf in sheep’s clothing

What will Evan Davis be like on Newsnight?
Finding the names for America’s shame: What happens to the immigrants crossing the US-Mexico border without documents who never make it past the Arizona desert?

Finding the names for America’s shame

The immigrants crossing the US-Mexico border without documents who never make it past the Arizona desert
Backhanders, bribery and abuses of power have soared in China as economy surges

Bribery and abuses of power soar in China

The bribery is fuelled by the surge in China's economy but the rules of corruption are subtle and unspoken, finds Evan Osnos, as he learns the dark arts from a master
Commonwealth Games 2014: Highland terriers stole the show at the opening ceremony

Highland terriers steal the show at opening ceremony

Gillian Orr explores why a dog loved by film stars and presidents is finally having its day
German art world rocked as artists use renowned fat sculpture to distil schnapps

Brewing the fat from artwork angers widow of sculptor

Part of Joseph Beuys' 1982 sculpture 'Fettecke' used to distil schnapps
BBC's The Secret History of Our Streets reveals a fascinating window into Britain's past

BBC takes viewers back down memory lane

The Secret History of Our Streets, which returns with three films looking at Scottish streets, is the inverse of Benefits Street - delivering warmth instead of cynicism
Joe, film review: Nicolas Cage delivers an astonishing performance in low budget drama

Nicolas Cage shines in low-budget drama Joe

Cage plays an ex-con in David Gordon Green's independent drama, which has been adapted from a novel by Larry Brown
How to make your own gourmet ice lollies, granitas, slushy cocktails and frozen yoghurt

Make your own ice lollies and frozen yoghurt

Think outside the cool box for this summer's tempting frozen treats
Ford Fiesta is UK's most popular car of all-time, with sales topping 4.1 million since 1976

Fiesta is UK's most popular car of all-time

Sales have topped 4.1 million since 1976. To celebrate this milestone, four Independent writers recall their Fiestas with pride
10 best reed diffusers

Heaven scent: 10 best reed diffusers

Keep your rooms smelling summery and fresh with one of these subtle but distinctive home fragrances that’ll last you months
Commonwealth Games 2014: Female boxers set to compete for first time

Female boxers set to compete at Commonwealth Games for first time

There’s no favourites and with no headguards anything could happen
Five things we’ve learned so far about Manchester United under Louis van Gaal

Five things we’ve learned so far about United under Van Gaal

It’s impossible to avoid the impression that the Dutch manager is playing to the gallery a little
Screwing your way to the top? Good for Lana Del Rey for helping kill that myth

Screwing your way to the top?

Good for Lana Del Rey for helping kill that myth, says Grace Dent
Will the young Britons fighting in Syria be allowed to return home and resume their lives?

Will Britons fighting in Syria be able to resume their lives?

Tony Blair's Terrorism Act 2006 has made it an offence to take part in military action abroad with a "political, ideological, religious or racial motive"
Beyoncé poses as Rosie the Riveter, the wartime poster girl who became a feminist pin-up

Beyoncé poses as Rosie the Riveter

The wartime poster girl became the ultimate American symbol of female empowerment