Sponsored features

Grand National stats show the best runners to back

 

The Grand National is finally here and for twelve months now
punters have been backing Grand National runners in the hope of
finding the winner of the most difficult puzzle in racing. Judging
by previous renewals of the Grand National though there are horses
who would perhaps be better off not lining up in the race with the
winner often having a certain profile each year. Stats can be used
to narrow down the field dramatically and many fancied runners this
year don’t fit the usual profile of a Grand National winner.
All of the Grand National Runners
are listed in full here

The Grand National attracts a variety of ages not only in who is betting on the race but also in the horses that line up in the Grand National field. The youngest horse in the race will be 7 years old whilst the oldest horse in the race is twice that age, 14 year old Hello Bud is looking to improve on his fifth in this race two years ago. However, he is certainly up against it as far as winning the Grand National goes. All the winners since the war have been between 8 and 12 with 9 and 10 year olds doing best of all in recent years (the last seven winners have been 9 or 10). The most strongly fancied horse who is ruled out through age this year is Organisedconfusion, this 7 year old is as short as 20/1 and might have a better chance in future years.

Weight can often be the best way of ruling a runner out of the Grand National as no horse has managed to carry more than 11-5 to victory since Red Rum last won the race in 1977. That is bad news for both Synchronised and last year’s winner Ballabriggs who are the two top weights off 11-10 and 11-09 respectively. With those two horses currently trading in the first five in the Grand National betting, this stat really narrows down the betting options and also rules out Weird Al, Neptune Collonges and Calgary Bay.

A horse needs plenty of stamina to win the Grand National as it is the longest race in the racing calendar, run over four and a half miles. The last ten winners had won a race under rules over at least three miles heading into the Grand National and if anything, you want a horse proven over a little further but by applying this statistic to the Grand National field you can take out two well fancied runners. Seabass and Becauseicouldntseeare both 20/1 at the time of writing and neither have won over three miles or more in a proper race.

 

You also want a horse with plenty of experience in the Grand National, the last ten winners had all run at least ten times over fences which is no surprise, the Grand National fences are extremely daunting and you wouldn’t really want a horse thrown in at the deep end in the Grand National. Several of the well fancied Grand National runners potentially lack the experience required to win this race, On His Own and Cappa Bleu have both run just six times over fences and will surely have a better chance next year whilst Junior and Shakalakaboomboom also fail to meet the ten chase runs stat and as a result are not considered. You also want a horse to have won a chase worth at least £17,000 to prove their class for this race but all the fancied horses not to meet this stat have already been ruled out due to other stats.

The above ‘must have’ stats that have proved crucial for finding the Grand National winner in recent years rule out over half the field this year, sixteen horses currently remain, but that is still too many runners to back. The safer bets in this race may have faced the Grand National fences on a previous occasion and with seven of the last twelve winners having run over the Grand National fences before, it looks a good idea to narrow down the field dramatically by putting a line through horses with no Grand National fence experience. Ability to jump is also crucial so horses who have fallen more than twice in their career look likely to struggle and if we also take out those horses that leaves just five horses now and they are West End Rocker, Killyglen, The Midnight Club, Rare Bob and Vic Venturi. It is also worth noting that a huge 17 of the last 21 Grand National winners started at 20/1 or less, clear proof that the bookies know what they are doing, and the only horses from this list that look capable of starting at those odds are West End Rocker and Killyglen. 

Visit Grand-National-Guide.co.uk to pick up a free bet to back these two horses that could be the most likely winners of this year’s Grand National.

Suggested Topics
News
news

Emergency call 'started off dumb, but got pretty serious'

News
people

Britain First criticised for using actress's memory to draw attention to their 'hate-filled home page'

Arts and Entertainment
JK Rowling is releasing a new Harry Potter story about Dolores Umbridge
arts + entsJK Rowling to publish new story set in wizard's world for Halloween
Arts and Entertainment
Benedict Cumberbatch has refused to deny his involvement in the upcoming new Star Wars film
filmBenedict Cumberbatch reignites those Star Wars rumours
PROMOTED VIDEO
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
News
Russell Brand was in typically combative form during his promotional interview with Newsnight's Evan Davis
people

Thought you'd seen it all after the Jeremy Paxman interview?

Arts and Entertainment
On The Apprentice, “serious” left the room many moons ago and yet still we watch
tv

Greatest mystery about the hit BBC1 show is how it continues to be made at all, writes Grace Dent

Life and Style
tech

Voices
Funds raised from the sale of poppies help the members of the armed forces with financial difficulties
voicesLindsey German: The best way of protecting soldiers is to stop sending them into conflicts
Arts and Entertainment
A scene from David Ayer's 'Fury'
film

"History is violent," says the US Army tank commander Don "Wardaddy" Collier

News
The Edge and his wife, Morleigh Steinberg, at the Academy Awards in 2014
peopleGuitarist faces protests over plan to build mansions in Malibu
Sport
Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi during Barcelona training in August
football

Striker's four-month ban for biting an opponent expires on Friday

News
news
News
peopleFox presenter gives her less than favourable view of women in politics
News
George Clooney and Amal Alamuddin married in Venice yesterday
peopleAmal and George Clooney 'planning third celebration in England'
Property
One bedroom terraced house for sale, Richmond Avenue, Islington, London N1. On with Winkworths for £275,000.
property
Sport
Erik Lamela celebrates his goal
football

Argentinian scored 'rabona' wonder goal for Tottenham in Europa League – see it here

News
i100
Caption competition
Caption competition
Latest stories from i100
Daily Quiz
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

Career Services
iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

Data Analyst/Planning and Performance – Surrey – Up to £35k

£30000 - £35000 Per Annum plus excellent benefits: Clearwater People Solutions...

Chemistry Teacher

£120 - £162 per day: Randstad Education Hull: Secondary Science Teacher Jan 20...

English Teacher

£24000 - £33600 per annum: Randstad Education Manchester Secondary: The Job:Te...

French Teacher for new post starting November 2014

£110 - £130 per day: Randstad Education Preston: the job ? We are looking for...

Day In a Page

Wilko Johnson, now the bad news: musician splits with manager after police investigate assault claims

Wilko Johnson, now the bad news

Former Dr Feelgood splits with manager after police investigate assault claims
Mark Udall: The Democrat Senator with a fight on his hands ahead of the US midterm elections

Mark Udall: The Democrat Senator with a fight on his hands

The Senator for Colorado is for gay rights, for abortion rights – and in the Republicans’ sights as they threaten to take control of the Senate next month
New discoveries show more contact between far-flung prehistoric humans than had been thought

New discoveries show more contact between far-flung prehistoric humans than had been thought

Evidence found of contact between Easter Islanders and South America
Cerys Matthews reveals how her uncle taped 150 interviews for a biography of Dylan Thomas

Cerys Matthews on Dylan Thomas

The singer reveals how her uncle taped 150 interviews for a biography of the famous Welsh poet
DIY is not fun and we've finally realised this as a nation

Homebase closures: 'DIY is not fun'

Homebase has announced the closure of one in four of its stores. Nick Harding, who never did know his awl from his elbow, is glad to see the back of DIY
The Battle of the Five Armies: Air New Zealand releases new Hobbit-inspired in-flight video

Air New Zealand's wizard in-flight video

The airline has released a new Hobbit-inspired clip dubbed "The most epic safety video ever made"
Pumpkin spice is the flavour of the month - but can you stomach the sweetness?

Pumpkin spice is the flavour of the month

The combination of cinnamon, clove, nutmeg (and no actual pumpkin), now flavours everything from lattes to cream cheese in the US
11 best sonic skincare brushes

11 best sonic skincare brushes

Forget the flannel - take skincare to the next level by using your favourite cleanser with a sonic facial brush
Paul Scholes column: I'm not worried about Manchester United's defence - Chelsea test can be the making of Phil Jones and Marcos Rojo

Paul Scholes column

I'm not worried about Manchester United's defence - Chelsea test can be the making of Jones and Rojo
Frank Warren: Boxing has its problems but in all my time I've never seen a crooked fight

Frank Warren: Boxing has its problems but in all my time I've never seen a crooked fight

While other sports are stalked by corruption, we are an easy target for the critics
Jamie Roberts exclusive interview: 'I'm a man of my word – I'll stay in Paris'

Jamie Roberts: 'I'm a man of my word – I'll stay in Paris'

Wales centre says he’s not coming home but is looking to establish himself at Racing Métro
How could three tourists have been battered within an inch of their lives by a burglar in a plush London hotel?

A crime that reveals London's dark heart

How could three tourists have been battered within an inch of their lives by a burglar in a plush London hotel?
Meet 'Porridge' and 'Vampire': Chinese state TV is offering advice for citizens picking a Western moniker

Lost in translation: Western monikers

Chinese state TV is offering advice for citizens picking a Western moniker. Simon Usborne, who met a 'Porridge' and a 'Vampire' while in China, can see the problem
Handy hacks that make life easier: New book reveals how to rid your inbox of spam, protect your passwords and amplify your iPhone

Handy hacks that make life easier

New book reveals how to rid your email inbox of spam, protect your passwords and amplify your iPhone with a loo-roll
KidZania lets children try their hands at being a firefighter, doctor or factory worker for the day

KidZania: It's a small world

The new 'educational entertainment experience' in London's Shepherd's Bush will allow children to try out the jobs that are usually undertaken by adults, including firefighter, doctor or factory worker