Bitcoin market prepares for ‘storm’ approaching

Report notes how ‘a remarkably resilient cohort of hodlers’ will be tested by ‘numerous macro headwinds’ next month

Bitcoin experienced extreme price volatility between November 2021 and February 2022 (Getty Images)

Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market could be set for a tumultuous few weeks of price movements amid “approaching storm clouds”, according to leading crypto analysts.

The latest report from on-chain data provider Glassnode warned of “numerous macro headwinds” that could heavily impact the price of bitcoin next month, from the tightening of Fed policy to potential war in Ukraine.

The cryptocurrency has already experienced extreme volatility over the last few months, peaking at an all-time high above $68,000 in November before crashing below $34,000 in January.

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Investors and traders appear to already be pricing in the upcoming uncertainty, the report noted, with data suggesting the market has matured significantly over the last year. This means there are no signs of a mass exit, which would provoke a fear-driven price crash.

“On-chain supply dynamics are remarkably stable, a likely indication that investors are prepared to ride out whatever storm lies ahead, preferring to utilise derivatives to hedge out risks,” the report stated.

“Overall, this speaks to the continuing maturation of the Bitcoin market, as liquidity deepens, and more comprehensive risk management instruments become available. This differs greatly in comparison to historical Bitcoin market cycles where de-risking was possible only by the sale of coins in spot markets.”

The cautious approach could ease the risk of volatility, especially given a “remarkably resilient cohort of hodlers” that continue to accumulate and hold on to bitcoin despite the price swings.

How well they are able to hold up against the “prevailing headwinds” will likely determine the fate of the crypto market over the coming months.

“The market is eagerly waiting to find out the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting,” Marcus Sotiriou, an analyst at the UK based digital asset broker GlobalBlock, told The Independent.

“This will give more insight into how the Federal Reserve plans to hike rates and begin the process of quantitative tightening. These minutes could hint at how aggressive the Federal Reserve will be and the likelihood of a rate hike in March.

The Glassnode report also noted that the long-running rehabilitation of funds from the defunct Mt Gox exchange could also have a major impact on the market if the trustee begins to sell.

MtGox trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi currently controls 137,890 BTC ($6 billion), equal to 0.72 per cent of the circulating supply.