And the award for best Oscar prediction ...

Bafta winners tend to do the same at the Oscars. So is the British tail wagging the American dog?

As Bafta rolls out its red carpet for its annual film awards tomorrow, the eyes of Oscar judges will no doubt be trained on the glittering British ceremony, with industry insiders suggesting their heads are being turned by its choice of winners every year.

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts moved its ceremony to fall before the Oscars rather than afterwards in 2001, but few could then have imagined the Baftas would become such reliable predictors for what would claim victory at the American Academy Awards.

Yet the industry has witnessed a growing connection between the two ceremonies. More Bafta winners have followed up with an accolade at the Oscars. All five films nominated in in the Best Film Bafta category this year – Avatar, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Precious and Up in the Air – feature in the same category in this year's Oscars. Four out of five Bafta-nominated screenplays are also Oscar nominated as well as directors and lead and supporting actors and actresses.

Some in the film industry now claim that the British awards ceremony is casting a greater influence over its bigger, more lavish Hollywood counterpart. Variety magazine recently suggested that the two academies have "gradually converged in their selections", culminating last year when they picked the same five nominees and winner for best picture, the British independent film Slumdog Millionaire.

It is impossible to say for certain whether this recent convergence is coincidental or meaningful, said Variety, but the magazine noted that the two academies have some overlapping decisions. In its analysis of the past eight years of Bafta and Oscar wins, it discerned an undeniable correlation across 10 major categories including best film and best actor/actress. Variety stated: "You almost certainly won't win an Oscar if you don't get nominated for a Bafta. If you win a Bafta, you will get nominated for an Oscar."

Barry Norman, the veteran film critic, said that it had become apparent in the past few years that Bafta-nominated British films were being picked up by Oscar judges who may otherwise not even have seen them, due to their limited release in American cinemas, citing An Education and In the Loop – relatively small-budget British films – as examples. "What Bafta decides for their nominations must give Oscar voters ideas. I sure there is an influence, certainly over what gets an Oscar nomination, and especially with relatively small British films that would only have a limited distribution in the United States; many such British films have art-house distributors," he said.

Amanda Berry, chief executive of Bafta, said many Bafta members felt that the British ceremony had in the past been obscured by the after-glow of the Oscars. Members debated changing the awards' date for two years before they did it, partly because "we didn't want to become a carbon copy of the Oscars. We wanted to retain our uniqueness". She said the date was finally moved so that "we could fit into that film window between the Golden Globes and the Oscars". The ceremony has become a hot ticket with a growing list of A-list attendees.

Ms Berry added: "I would hope we have some influence over the Oscars. We share some of the same members. I feel a level of pride (in the hit rate of winners at the Baftas who go on to win at the Oscars)," she said.

She dismissed the idea that Bafta's choices are becoming more influenced by Hollywood tastes. "We are sometimes criticised for not doing enough for British film, but by creating a very international ceremony we are setting ourselves up to compete with the very best in the world."

Bafta vs Oscars: The winners

2001

Baftas: Jamie Bell, Julia Roberts, Gladiator

Oscars: Russell Crowe, Julia Roberts, Gladiator

2002

Baftas: Russell Crowe, Jennifer Connelly, Lord of the Rings (Fellowship of the Rings)

Oscars: Denzel Washington, Halle Berry, A Beautiful Mind

2003

Baftas: Daniel Day-Lewis, Nicole Kidman, The Pianist

Oscars: Adrien Brody, Nicole Kidman, Chicago

2004

Baftas:  Bill Murray,  Scarlett Johansson, Lord of the Rings (The Return of the King)

Oscars: Sean Penn, Charlize Theron, Lord of the Rings (The Return of the King)

2005

Baftas: Jamie Foxx, Imelda Staunton, The Aviator

Oscars: Jamie Foxx, Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby

2006

Baftas: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Reese Witherspoon, Brokeback Mountain

Oscars: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Reese Witherspoon, Brokeback Mountain

2007

Baftas: Forest Whitaker, Helen Mirren, The Queen

Oscars: Forest Whitaker, Helen Mirren, The Departed

2008

Baftas: Daniel Day-Lewis, Marion Cotillard, Atonement

Oscars: Daniel Day-Lewis, Marion Cotillard, No Country for Old Men

2009

Baftas: Mickey Rourke, Kate Winslet, Slumdog Millionaire

Oscars: Sean Penn, Kate Winslet, Slumdog Millionaire

Arts and Entertainment
Eddie Redmayne with his Screen Actors Guild award for Best Actor

film
Arts and Entertainment
Rowan Atkinson is bringing out Mr Bean for Comic Relief

TV
Arts and Entertainment

Theatre

Arts and Entertainment
V&A museum in London

Art Piece taken off website amid 'severe security alert'

Arts and Entertainment
Over their 20 years, the band has built a community of dedicated followers the world over
music
PROMOTED VIDEO
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Arts and Entertainment

ebooksNow available in paperback
Arts and Entertainment

ebooks
Arts and Entertainment
Reese Witherspoon starring in 'Wild'

It's hard not to warm to Reese Witherspoon's heroismfilm
Arts and Entertainment
Word up: Robbie Coltrane as dictionary guru Doctor Johnson in the classic sitcom Blackadder the Third
books

Arts and Entertainment
The Oscar nominations are due to be announced today

Oscars 2015
Arts and Entertainment
Hacked off: Maisie Williams in ‘Cyberbully’

Maisie Williams single-handedly rises to the challenge

TV
Arts and Entertainment
Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything and Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game are both nominated at the Bafta Film Awards
Arts and Entertainment

Academy criticised after no non-white actors nominated

Arts and Entertainment
Damian Lewis shooting a scene as Henry VIII in Wolf Hall
TV

Arts and Entertainment
A history of violence: ‘Angry, White and Proud’ looked at the rise of far-right groups

tv

An expose of hooliganism masquerading as an ideological battle

Arts and Entertainment

art

Lee Hadwin can't draw when he's awake, but by night he's an artist

Arts and Entertainment

TV

Arts and Entertainment
Michael Keaton in the 1998 Beetlejuice original

film

Arts and Entertainment

TV

Arts and Entertainment
Olivia Colman and David Tennant star in 'Broadchurch'

TV

Arts and Entertainment
Michael Kitchen plays Christopher Foyle in ITV's 'Foyle's War'

TV
Arts and Entertainment

TV
Arts and Entertainment
Downton Abbey star Joanne Froggatt will be starring in Dominic Savage's new BBC drama The Secrets

Arts and Entertainment
Vividly drawn: Timothy Spall in Mike Leigh’s ‘Mr Turner’
film
Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?

ES Rentals

    Independent Dating
    and  

    By clicking 'Search' you
    are agreeing to our
    Terms of Use.

    Syria crisis: Celebrities call on David Cameron to take more refugees as one young mother tells of torture by Assad regime

    Celebrities call on David Cameron to take more Syrian refugees

    One young mother tells of torture by Assad regime
    The enemy within: People who hear voices in their heads are being encouraged to talk back – with promising results

    The enemy within

    People who hear voices in their heads are being encouraged to talk back
    'In Auschwitz you got used to anything'

    'In Auschwitz you got used to anything'

    Survivors of the Nazi concentration camp remember its horror, 70 years on
    Autumn/winter menswear 2015: The uniforms that make up modern life come to the fore

    Autumn/winter menswear 2015

    The uniforms that make up modern life come to the fore
    'I'm gay, and plan to fight military homophobia'

    'I'm gay, and plan to fight military homophobia'

    Army general planning to come out
    Iraq invasion 2003: The bloody warnings six wise men gave to Tony Blair as he prepared to launch poorly planned campaign

    What the six wise men told Tony Blair

    Months before the invasion of Iraq in 2003, experts sought to warn the PM about his plans. Here, four of them recall that day
    25 years of The Independent on Sunday: The stories, the writers and the changes over the last quarter of a century

    25 years of The Independent on Sunday

    The stories, the writers and the changes over the last quarter of a century
    Homeless Veterans appeal: 'Really caring is a dangerous emotion in this kind of work'

    Homeless Veterans appeal

    As head of The Soldiers' Charity, Martin Rutledge has to temper compassion with realism. He tells Chris Green how his Army career prepared him
    Wu-Tang Clan and The Sexual Objects offer fans a chance to own the only copies of their latest albums

    Smash hit go under the hammer

    It's nice to pick up a new record once in a while, but the purchasers of two latest releases can go a step further - by buying the only copy
    Geeks who rocked the world: Documentary looks back at origins of the computer-games industry

    The geeks who rocked the world

    A new documentary looks back at origins of the computer-games industry
    Belle & Sebastian interview: Stuart Murdoch reveals how the band is taking a new direction

    Belle & Sebastian is taking a new direction

    Twenty years ago, Belle & Sebastian was a fey indie band from Glasgow. It still is – except today, as prime mover Stuart Murdoch admits, it has a global cult following, from Hollywood to South Korea
    America: Land of the free, home of the political dynasty

    America: Land of the free, home of the political dynasty

    These days in the US things are pretty much stuck where they are, both in politics and society at large, says Rupert Cornwell
    A graphic history of US civil rights – in comic book form

    A graphic history of US civil rights – in comic book form

    A veteran of the Fifties campaigns is inspiring a new generation of activists
    Winston Churchill: the enigma of a British hero

    Winston Churchill: the enigma of a British hero

    A C Benson called him 'a horrid little fellow', George Orwell would have shot him, but what a giant he seems now, says DJ Taylor
    Growing mussels: Precious freshwater shellfish are thriving in a unique green project

    Growing mussels

    Precious freshwater shellfish are thriving in a unique green project