And the award for best Oscar prediction ...

Bafta winners tend to do the same at the Oscars. So is the British tail wagging the American dog?

As Bafta rolls out its red carpet for its annual film awards tomorrow, the eyes of Oscar judges will no doubt be trained on the glittering British ceremony, with industry insiders suggesting their heads are being turned by its choice of winners every year.

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts moved its ceremony to fall before the Oscars rather than afterwards in 2001, but few could then have imagined the Baftas would become such reliable predictors for what would claim victory at the American Academy Awards.

Yet the industry has witnessed a growing connection between the two ceremonies. More Bafta winners have followed up with an accolade at the Oscars. All five films nominated in in the Best Film Bafta category this year – Avatar, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Precious and Up in the Air – feature in the same category in this year's Oscars. Four out of five Bafta-nominated screenplays are also Oscar nominated as well as directors and lead and supporting actors and actresses.

Some in the film industry now claim that the British awards ceremony is casting a greater influence over its bigger, more lavish Hollywood counterpart. Variety magazine recently suggested that the two academies have "gradually converged in their selections", culminating last year when they picked the same five nominees and winner for best picture, the British independent film Slumdog Millionaire.

It is impossible to say for certain whether this recent convergence is coincidental or meaningful, said Variety, but the magazine noted that the two academies have some overlapping decisions. In its analysis of the past eight years of Bafta and Oscar wins, it discerned an undeniable correlation across 10 major categories including best film and best actor/actress. Variety stated: "You almost certainly won't win an Oscar if you don't get nominated for a Bafta. If you win a Bafta, you will get nominated for an Oscar."

Barry Norman, the veteran film critic, said that it had become apparent in the past few years that Bafta-nominated British films were being picked up by Oscar judges who may otherwise not even have seen them, due to their limited release in American cinemas, citing An Education and In the Loop – relatively small-budget British films – as examples. "What Bafta decides for their nominations must give Oscar voters ideas. I sure there is an influence, certainly over what gets an Oscar nomination, and especially with relatively small British films that would only have a limited distribution in the United States; many such British films have art-house distributors," he said.

Amanda Berry, chief executive of Bafta, said many Bafta members felt that the British ceremony had in the past been obscured by the after-glow of the Oscars. Members debated changing the awards' date for two years before they did it, partly because "we didn't want to become a carbon copy of the Oscars. We wanted to retain our uniqueness". She said the date was finally moved so that "we could fit into that film window between the Golden Globes and the Oscars". The ceremony has become a hot ticket with a growing list of A-list attendees.

Ms Berry added: "I would hope we have some influence over the Oscars. We share some of the same members. I feel a level of pride (in the hit rate of winners at the Baftas who go on to win at the Oscars)," she said.

She dismissed the idea that Bafta's choices are becoming more influenced by Hollywood tastes. "We are sometimes criticised for not doing enough for British film, but by creating a very international ceremony we are setting ourselves up to compete with the very best in the world."

Bafta vs Oscars: The winners

2001

Baftas: Jamie Bell, Julia Roberts, Gladiator

Oscars: Russell Crowe, Julia Roberts, Gladiator

2002

Baftas: Russell Crowe, Jennifer Connelly, Lord of the Rings (Fellowship of the Rings)

Oscars: Denzel Washington, Halle Berry, A Beautiful Mind

2003

Baftas: Daniel Day-Lewis, Nicole Kidman, The Pianist

Oscars: Adrien Brody, Nicole Kidman, Chicago

2004

Baftas:  Bill Murray,  Scarlett Johansson, Lord of the Rings (The Return of the King)

Oscars: Sean Penn, Charlize Theron, Lord of the Rings (The Return of the King)

2005

Baftas: Jamie Foxx, Imelda Staunton, The Aviator

Oscars: Jamie Foxx, Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby

2006

Baftas: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Reese Witherspoon, Brokeback Mountain

Oscars: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Reese Witherspoon, Brokeback Mountain

2007

Baftas: Forest Whitaker, Helen Mirren, The Queen

Oscars: Forest Whitaker, Helen Mirren, The Departed

2008

Baftas: Daniel Day-Lewis, Marion Cotillard, Atonement

Oscars: Daniel Day-Lewis, Marion Cotillard, No Country for Old Men

2009

Baftas: Mickey Rourke, Kate Winslet, Slumdog Millionaire

Oscars: Sean Penn, Kate Winslet, Slumdog Millionaire

PROMOTED VIDEO
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Arts and Entertainment

ebooksAn evocation of the conflict through the eyes of those who lived through it
Arts and Entertainment

ebooks
Independent
Travel Shop
the manor
Up to 70% off luxury travel
on city breaks Find out more
santorini
Up to 70% off luxury travel
on chic beach resorts Find out more
sardina foodie
Up to 70% off luxury travel
on country retreats Find out more
Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?

ES Rentals

    Independent Dating
    and  

    By clicking 'Search' you
    are agreeing to our
    Terms of Use.

    Dress the Gaza situation up all you like, but the truth hurts

    Robert Fisk on Gaza conflict

    Dress the situation up all you like, but the truth hurts
    Save the tiger: Tiger, tiger burning less brightly as numbers plummet

    Tiger, tiger burning less brightly

    When William Blake wrote his famous poem there were probably more than 100,000 tigers in the wild. These days they probably number around 3,200
    5 News's Andy Bell retraces his grandfather's steps on the First World War battlefields

    In grandfather's footsteps

    5 News's political editor Andy Bell only knows his grandfather from the compelling diary he kept during WWI. But when he returned to the killing fields where Edwin Vaughan suffered so much, his ancestor came to life
    Lifestyle guru Martha Stewart reveals she has flying robot ... to take photos of her farm

    Martha Stewart has flying robot

    The lifestyle guru used the drone to get a bird's eye view her 153-acre farm in Bedford, New York
    Former Labour minister Meg Hillier has demanded 'pootling lanes' for women cyclists

    Do women cyclists need 'pootling lanes'?

    Simon Usborne (who's more of a hurtler) explains why winning the space race is key to happy riding
    A tale of two presidents: George W Bush downs his paintbrush to pen father’s life story

    A tale of two presidents

    George W Bush downs his paintbrush to pen father’s life story
    Restaurateur Mitch Tonks has given the Great Western Pullman dining car a makeover

    The dining car makes a comeback

    Restaurateur Mitch Tonks has given the Great Western Pullman dining car a makeover
    Gallery rage: How are institutions tackling the discomfort of overcrowding this summer?

    Gallery rage

    How are institutions tackling the discomfort of overcrowding this summer?
    Louis van Gaal has £500,000 video surveillance system installed to monitor Manchester United players

    Eye on the prize

    Louis van Gaal has £500,000 video surveillance system installed to monitor Manchester United players
    Women's rugby: Tamara Taylor adds fuel to the ire in quest to land World Cup

    Women's rugby

    Tamara Taylor adds fuel to the ire in quest to land World Cup
    Save the tiger: The day America’s love of backyard tigers led to a horrific bloodbath

    The day America’s love of backyard tigers led to a horrific bloodbath

    With only six per cent of the US population of these amazing big cats held in zoos, the Zanesville incident in 2011 was inevitable
    Samuel Beckett's biographer reveals secrets of the writer's time as a French Resistance spy

    How Samuel Beckett became a French Resistance spy

    As this year's Samuel Beckett festival opens in Enniskillen, James Knowlson, recalls how the Irish writer risked his life for liberty and narrowly escaped capture by the Gestapo
    We will remember them: relatives still honour those who fought in the Great War

    We will remember them

    Relatives still honour those who fought in the Great War
    Star Wars Episode VII is being shot on film - and now Kodak is launching a last-ditch bid to keep celluloid alive

    Kodak's last-ditch bid to keep celluloid alive

    Director J J Abrams and a few digital refuseniks shoot movies on film. Simon Usborne wonders what the fuss is about
    Once stilted and melodramatic, Hollywood is giving acting in video games a makeover

    Acting in video games gets a makeover

    David Crookes meets two of the genre's most popular voices