And the award for best Oscar prediction ...

Bafta winners tend to do the same at the Oscars. So is the British tail wagging the American dog?

As Bafta rolls out its red carpet for its annual film awards tomorrow, the eyes of Oscar judges will no doubt be trained on the glittering British ceremony, with industry insiders suggesting their heads are being turned by its choice of winners every year.

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts moved its ceremony to fall before the Oscars rather than afterwards in 2001, but few could then have imagined the Baftas would become such reliable predictors for what would claim victory at the American Academy Awards.

Yet the industry has witnessed a growing connection between the two ceremonies. More Bafta winners have followed up with an accolade at the Oscars. All five films nominated in in the Best Film Bafta category this year – Avatar, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Precious and Up in the Air – feature in the same category in this year's Oscars. Four out of five Bafta-nominated screenplays are also Oscar nominated as well as directors and lead and supporting actors and actresses.

Some in the film industry now claim that the British awards ceremony is casting a greater influence over its bigger, more lavish Hollywood counterpart. Variety magazine recently suggested that the two academies have "gradually converged in their selections", culminating last year when they picked the same five nominees and winner for best picture, the British independent film Slumdog Millionaire.

It is impossible to say for certain whether this recent convergence is coincidental or meaningful, said Variety, but the magazine noted that the two academies have some overlapping decisions. In its analysis of the past eight years of Bafta and Oscar wins, it discerned an undeniable correlation across 10 major categories including best film and best actor/actress. Variety stated: "You almost certainly won't win an Oscar if you don't get nominated for a Bafta. If you win a Bafta, you will get nominated for an Oscar."

Barry Norman, the veteran film critic, said that it had become apparent in the past few years that Bafta-nominated British films were being picked up by Oscar judges who may otherwise not even have seen them, due to their limited release in American cinemas, citing An Education and In the Loop – relatively small-budget British films – as examples. "What Bafta decides for their nominations must give Oscar voters ideas. I sure there is an influence, certainly over what gets an Oscar nomination, and especially with relatively small British films that would only have a limited distribution in the United States; many such British films have art-house distributors," he said.

Amanda Berry, chief executive of Bafta, said many Bafta members felt that the British ceremony had in the past been obscured by the after-glow of the Oscars. Members debated changing the awards' date for two years before they did it, partly because "we didn't want to become a carbon copy of the Oscars. We wanted to retain our uniqueness". She said the date was finally moved so that "we could fit into that film window between the Golden Globes and the Oscars". The ceremony has become a hot ticket with a growing list of A-list attendees.

Ms Berry added: "I would hope we have some influence over the Oscars. We share some of the same members. I feel a level of pride (in the hit rate of winners at the Baftas who go on to win at the Oscars)," she said.

She dismissed the idea that Bafta's choices are becoming more influenced by Hollywood tastes. "We are sometimes criticised for not doing enough for British film, but by creating a very international ceremony we are setting ourselves up to compete with the very best in the world."

Bafta vs Oscars: The winners

2001

Baftas: Jamie Bell, Julia Roberts, Gladiator

Oscars: Russell Crowe, Julia Roberts, Gladiator

2002

Baftas: Russell Crowe, Jennifer Connelly, Lord of the Rings (Fellowship of the Rings)

Oscars: Denzel Washington, Halle Berry, A Beautiful Mind

2003

Baftas: Daniel Day-Lewis, Nicole Kidman, The Pianist

Oscars: Adrien Brody, Nicole Kidman, Chicago

2004

Baftas:  Bill Murray,  Scarlett Johansson, Lord of the Rings (The Return of the King)

Oscars: Sean Penn, Charlize Theron, Lord of the Rings (The Return of the King)

2005

Baftas: Jamie Foxx, Imelda Staunton, The Aviator

Oscars: Jamie Foxx, Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby

2006

Baftas: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Reese Witherspoon, Brokeback Mountain

Oscars: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Reese Witherspoon, Brokeback Mountain

2007

Baftas: Forest Whitaker, Helen Mirren, The Queen

Oscars: Forest Whitaker, Helen Mirren, The Departed

2008

Baftas: Daniel Day-Lewis, Marion Cotillard, Atonement

Oscars: Daniel Day-Lewis, Marion Cotillard, No Country for Old Men

2009

Baftas: Mickey Rourke, Kate Winslet, Slumdog Millionaire

Oscars: Sean Penn, Kate Winslet, Slumdog Millionaire

Arts & Entertainment
Maisie Williams of Game of Thrones now
tvMajor roles that grow with their child actors are helping them to steal the show on TV
Arts & Entertainment
Customers browse through Vinyl Junkies record shop in Berwick Street, Soho, London
music

Arts & Entertainment
Who laughs lass: Jenny Collier on stage
ComedyCollier was once told there were "too many women" on bill
Arts & Entertainment
Ian Anderson, the leader of British rock band Jethro Tull, (right) and British guitar player Martin Barre (left) perform on stage
music

VIDEO
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition iPad app?
Arts & Entertainment
film

Arts & Entertainment
Don (John Hamm) and Megan (Jessica Paré) Draper are going their separate ways in the final series of ‘Mad Men’
tvReview: The suits are still sharp, but Don Draper has lost his edge
Arts & Entertainment
James Franco and Chris O'Dowd in Of Mice and Men on Broadway
theatre

Review: Of Mice and Men

Arts & Entertainment
art

By opportunistic local hoping to exhibit the work

Arts & Entertainment
Leonardo DiCaprio will star in an adaptation of Michael Punke's thriller 'The Revenant'
film

Fans will be hoping the role finally wins him an Oscar

Arts & Entertainment
Cody and Paul Walker pictured in 2003.
film

Arts & Entertainment
Down to earth: Fern Britton presents 'The Big Allotment Challenge'
TV

Arts & Entertainment
The London Mozart Players is the longest-running chamber orchestra in the UK
musicThreatened orchestra plays on, managed by its own members
Arts & Entertainment
Seeing red: James Dean with Sal Mineo in 'Rebel without a Cause'
film

Arts & Entertainment
TV
Arts & Entertainment
Heads up: Andy Scott's The Kelpies in Falkirk
art

What do gigantic horse heads tell us about Falkirk?

Arts & Entertainment
artGraffiti legend posts picture of work – but no one knows where it is
Arts & Entertainment
A close-up of Tom of Finland's new Finnish stamp
art

Finnish Postal Service praises the 'self irony and humour' of the drawings

Arts & Entertainment
Pierce Brosnan as James Bond in 2002's Die Another Day
film

The actor has confessed to his own insecurities

Life & Style
Green fingers: a plot in East London
TV

Allotments are the focus of a new reality show

Arts & Entertainment
Myleene Klass attends the Olivier awards 2014

Oliviers 2014Theatre stars arrive at Britain's most prestigious theatre awards
Arts & Entertainment
Stars of The Book of Mormon by Trey Parker and Matt Stone of South Park

Oliviers 2014Blockbuster picked up Best Musical and Best Actor in a Musical
Arts & Entertainment
Lesley Manville with her Olivier for Best Actress for her role in 'Ghosts'

Oliviers 2014Actress thanked director Richard Eyre for a stunning production
Independent
Travel Shop
the manor
Up to 70% off luxury travel
on city breaks Find out more
santorini
Up to 70% off luxury travel
on chic beach resorts Find out more
sardina foodie
Up to 70% off luxury travel
on country retreats Find out more
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition iPad app?

ES Rentals

    Independent Dating
    and  

    By clicking 'Search' you
    are agreeing to our
    Terms of Use.

    How I brokered a peace deal with Robert Mugabe: Roy Agyemang reveals the delicate diplomacy needed to get Zimbabwe’s President to sit down with the BBC

    How I brokered a peace deal with Robert Mugabe

    Roy Agyemang reveals the delicate diplomacy needed to get Zimbabwe’s President to sit down with the BBC
    Video of British Muslims dancing to Pharrell Williams's hit Happy attacked as 'sinful'

    British Muslims's Happy video attacked as 'sinful'

    The four-minute clip by Honesty Policy has had more than 300,000 hits on YouTube
    Church of England-raised Michael Williams describes the unexpected joys in learning about his family's Jewish faith

    Michael Williams: Do as I do, not as I pray

    Church of England-raised Williams describes the unexpected joys in learning about his family's Jewish faith
    A History of the First World War in 100 moments: A visit to the Front Line by the Prime Minister's wife

    A History of the First World War in 100 moments

    A visit to the Front Line by the Prime Minister's wife
    Comedian Jenny Collier: 'Sexism I experienced on stand-up circuit should be extinct'

    Jenny Collier: 'Sexism on stand-up circuit should be extinct'

    The comedian's appearance at a show on the eve of International Women's Day was cancelled because they had "too many women" on the bill
    Cannes Film Festival: Ken Loach and Mike Leigh to fight it out for the Palme d'Or

    Cannes Film Festival

    Ken Loach and Mike Leigh to fight it out for the Palme d'Or
    The concept album makes surprise top ten return with neolithic opus from Jethro Tull's Ian Anderson

    The concept album makes surprise top ten return

    Neolithic opus from Jethro Tull's Ian Anderson is unexpected success
    Lichen is the surprise new ingredient on fine-dining menus, thanks to our love of Scandinavian and Indian cuisines

    Lichen is surprise new ingredient on fine-dining menus

    Emily Jupp discovers how it can give a unique, smoky flavour to our cooking
    10 best baking books

    10 best baking books

    Planning a spot of baking this bank holiday weekend? From old favourites to new releases, here’s ten cookbooks for you
    Jury still out on Manchester City boss Manuel Pellegrini

    Jury still out on Pellegrini

    Draw with Sunderland raises questions over Manchester City manager's ability to motivate and unify his players
    Ben Stokes: 'Punching lockers isn't way forward'

    Ben Stokes: 'Punching lockers isn't way forward'

    The all-rounder has been hailed as future star after Ashes debut but incident in Caribbean added to doubts about discipline. Jon Culley meets a man looking to control his emotions
    Mark Johnston: First £1 million jackpot spurs him on

    Mark Johnston: First £1 million jackpot spurs him on

    The most prize money ever at an All-Weather race day is up for grabs at Lingfield on Friday, and the record-breaking trainer tells Jon Freeman how times have changed
    Ricky Gervais: 'People are waiting for me to fail. If you think it's awful, then just don't watch it'

    Ricky Gervais: 'People are waiting for me to fail'

    As the second series of his divisive sitcom 'Derek' hits screens, the comedian tells James Rampton why he'll never bow to the critics who habitually circle his work
    Mad Men series 7, TV review: The suits are still sharp, but Don Draper has lost his edge

    Mad Men returns for a final fling

    The suits are still sharp, but Don Draper has lost his edge
    Google finds a lift into space will never get off the ground as there is no material strong enough for a cable from Earth into orbit

    Google finds a lift into space will never get off the ground

    Technology giant’s scientists say there is no material strong enough for a cable from Earth into orbit