'I don't think it will be accepted': Iain Gale suggests that while the Carabinieri may have got their man, they might not have got the right painting

Is the Madonna with the Child and a Lamb by the same artist who painted Holy Family with the Lamb (right, indisputably by Raphael)? Nicholas Penny believes that the similarity between the two paintings is not conclusive

The Madonna with the Child and a Lamb or Madonna of the Hay is an intriguing painting: a complex theological allegory that satisfies the intellect and delights the eye. But is it the work of Raphael? To answer this question we must first understand the meaning of the painting. The composition is the key to the iconography.

The Virgin sits in a meadow looking fondly at the Christ child, who is holding a lamb by the neck and appears to be feeding it hay. We follow her gaze to construct the narrative. Our ultimate focus, the lamb, would have had an instantly recognisable significance for a Renaissance audience. Here is the sacrificial victim, the mirror of Christ and the symbol of his Passion. That Christ should embrace the lamb signifies his being drawn to his ultimate bloody destiny.

Leonardo was the first artist to offer such a meaning in his cartoon, The Madonna and Child with St Anne, which caused such a stir when exhibited in Florence in 1501. In this work (now lost), Christ was depicted embracing a lamb while the Virgin attempted to restrain him. The interpretation was that Mary was trying to restrain her son from embracing his inevitable fate. This was a departure in a depiction of the Madonna: a complex theological allegory with a psychological narrative content.

Accepting that the Madonna of the Hay dates from the early 1500s, its painter would certainly have known of Leonardo's cartoon and may have been attempting a similar meaning. In Renaissance iconography, however, the lamb can also represent Christ's earthly flock, and here we see him feeding them. The painter has linked the hay to the bread of life and thus to the Eucharist, so leading us back to Christ's Passion.

The Virgin gently lays a hand on her son, half restraining, but also in encouragement. With the lamb, her action provides the most obvious connection with the iconography of Raphael's own work. In two versions of his Holy Family with the Lamb, Raphael shows Christ with a lamb, but has him sitting astride the beast rather than embracing it, as in the Leonardo. Whereas Leonardo's Virgin restrains her son, Raphael's commends and assists. The painter of the Madonna of the Hay was probably aware of one or other of these works by Raphael, painted in 1504 and 1505. But does any of this imply that the Madonna of the Hay is the work of Raphael?

Dr Nicholas Penny, Clore Curator of Renaissance Art and Acting Chief Curator at the National Gallery, is doubtful: 'There are only two ways in which the picture could be described as a 'lost Raphael'. One is that it might correspond to a painting by Raphael recorded as having been made within his lifetime.' Such a painting is mentioned by Vasari, yet Penny is reluctant to equate the two works. 'According to Vasari, Raphael is supposed not to have painted the blues and that would suggest the use of ultramarine (rather than the master-painter's lapis lazuli), but that isn't used in this painting.

'The second possibility is that it might be a painting described as being by Raphael, say 100 years ago.' This is less easy to counter. The painting seems to have been described as such when in the possession of the Leopardi family in the late 19th century. Yet, at that time, owners were only too keen to claim works as being by Old Masters, regardless of their authenticity. This proves nothing.

'I don't think it will be generally accepted as a Raphael,' Dr Penny concludes. 'I examined the painting in store in Switzerland and saw both an infra-red reflectogram mosaic and an X-Radiograph. It's not in a good state. Underdrawing in a very fine line is visible. The lines look freely drawn. Rather spare, apparently free-hand underdrawing with a very fine line is found in Raphael's Saint Catherine in the National Gallery, but that shows more evidence of Raphael's typical drawing style and there are geometrical guidelines known to be characteristic of his work. The underdrawing here looks right for a Florentine painting of the early 16th century. On the other hand, while not incompatible with an attribution to Raphael, there is nothing about the character of the underdrawing that could be used to advance an attribution to him. In my view, it is an early 16th-century painting and connected with Raphael.'

Comparing the picture with Raphael's oeuvre, it would be easy for a less particular scholar than Dr Penny to find a place for it. The Virgin has that tranquil quality common to Raphael's Madonnas. Its Leonardo-like subject matter and Florentine style point to a date of around 1505, and we know that Raphael was in Florence between 1504 and 1508. And there are other details that recall his style besides its affinity with the two versions of the Holy Family with the Lamb: the Virgin's pose, and the position of her foot and hand, suggest the Madonna in Raphael's Canigiani Holy Family of 1507. But none of this is conclusive. The Madonna of the Hay may well be the painting the Leopardi always proudly called their 'Raphael', but whether or not the brushstrokes are by the painter from Urbino, we will probably never know.

(Photograph omitted)