South Korea’s opposition parties projected to retain majority, exit polls show as voting closes

South Korea marks highest ever turnout in parliamentary election

South Koreans cast their ballots during the parliamentary elections at a polling station located in a wedding hall in Seoul on 10 April 2024 (AFP via Getty Images)

South Korea’s main opposition Democratic Party and its allies were projected to retain a majority by winning up to 197 seats in Wednesday’s elections for the single-chamber, 300-seat legislature, an exit poll conducted jointly by three television networks showed.

The predictions, if confirmed, would deal a massive blow to conservative president Yoon Suk Yeol who is facing a crucial test amid a cost-of-living crisis and a spate of political scandal.

The joint exit polls by South Korea‘s three major TV stations – KBS, MBC and SBS – showed the main opposition Democratic Party and its allies were expected to win combined 183-197 seats in the 300-member National Assembly, while the ruling People Power Party and its satellite party were projected to win 85-100 seats.

The predictions come as South Koreans cast their ballot on Wednesday to elect a new parliament.

Nearly 25 million people or 56.4 per cent of eligible voters had cast their vote, as of 2pm local time, according to the National Election Commission, marking the highest-ever turnout for the parliamentary election even as it remains below the 2022 presidential election that brought Mr Yoon to power.

Since taking office in 2022 for a single five-year term, Mr Yoon, a former top prosecutor, has been grappling with low approval ratings and a liberal opposition-controlled parliament that has limited his major policy platforms.

In the months ahead of the election, the conservatives supporting Mr Yoon and their liberal rivals exchanged toxic rhetoric and mudslinging.

The opposition Democratic Party (DP), which already dominates the 300-member legislature, has accused Mr Yoon and his conservative People Power Party (PPP) of mismanaging the economy and failing to rein in inflation during their time in office.

PPP leader Han Dong-hoon said a big win by the DP, whose leader is facing corruption charges, would create a crisis for the country. He warned against giving the opposition an unprecedented super majority of 200 seats, which would strip Mr Yoon of his veto power.

Choi Ji-sun, 25, exhibition designer, poses outside a polling station in Seoul on 10 April 2024, after voting during the parliamentary election (AFP via Getty Images)

Regardless of the results, Mr Yoon will stay in power, but if his People Power Party fails to regain a parliamentary majority it could set back his agenda and further intensify conservative-liberal fighting.

Opinion polls have been mixed and the two major parties have said dozens of districts are too close to call but some party leaders and political analysts predict DP is likely to win a majority.

"What would matter to the People Power Party is whether it can become the biggest party or the second biggest party," said Choi Jin, director of the Seoul-based Institute of Presidential Leadership. "If his party loses the election, Mr Yoon will find it difficult to move forward even a single step on state affairs."

Of the 300 seats, 254 will be elected through direct votes in local districts, and the other 46 to the parties according to their proportion of the vote. Election observers say candidates in about 50 to 55 local districts are in neck-and-neck races.

South Korea‘s conservative-liberal division deepened during the 2022 presidential election, during which Mr Yoon and his main rival Lee Jae-myung spent months demonising each other. Mr Yoon eventually beat Mr Lee by the narrowest margin ever for a Korean presidential candidate.

Mr Lee, now the chairman of the opposition Democratic Party, is a harsh critic of Mr Yoon’s policies and is eying another presidential bid. He faces an array of corruption investigations that he argues are politically motivated and pushed by Mr Yoon’s government.

Kim Yong-ho, 24, who owns a food and beverages business, poses outside a polling station in Seoul on 10 April 2024, after voting for the first time, during the parliamentary election (AFP via Getty Images)

There was a brief soul-searching about South Korea‘s divisive politics after Mr Lee was stabbed in the neck in January by a man who, according to police, tried to kill him to prevent him from becoming president. But as the parliamentary election approached, the rival parties began churning out abusive rhetoric and crude insults against each other.

Ruling party leader Han Dong-hoon called Mr Lee "a criminal" and labelled his past comments as "trash." Mr Lee’s party spokesperson described Mr Han’s mouth as a "trash bin." Mr Han accused Mr Lee of using a sexist remark against a female ruling party candidate.

During one of his final campaign events on Tuesday, Mr Han argued that giving too many seats to Mr Lee’s Democratic Party will throw South Korea into political turmoil. "Tomorrow’s 12 hours will determine whether the Republic of Korea will plunge into shocking chaos and despair or overcome a crisis," Mr Han said, using South Korea‘s official name.

Speaking ahead of his corruption trial at a Seoul court, Lee urged voters to punish the Yoon government, which he said has used prosecutors to suppress opponents. "I earnestly ask you to hand out your judgement on a government that betrays and goes against the people," Mr Lee said.

Among those voting in the capital Seoul on Wednesday, Park Na-jung, 51, said she backed Mr Yoon’s party to help prevent the opposition from taking too much power, while Kim Ji-yun, 26, said Mr Yoon’s government was on the "wrong path".

Jung Cheol-min, 40, said he had decided to support a minor party, disappointed by what he felt was big parties focusing on political fights rather than competing on policies.

"I hope the two-party structure will be broken somehow, and politicians will carry out practical policies for ordinary people."

A liberal splinter party led by former justice minister Cho Kuk has emerged a dark horse, projected to win a dozen seats to become a third-party force that can influence control of the assembly.

Earlier, Chung Jin-young, a former dean of the Graduate School of Pan-Pacific International Studies at Kyung Hee University, predicted that the opposition parties could win a combined 150-180 seats.

"That would cause a political deadlock for the Republic of Korea for the next three years, as both the ruling and opposition parties can’t pursue things unilaterally and won’t likely make terms with each other," Mr Chung said.

Additional reporting by agencies