Modi predicts India will become a top-three economy in Independence Day ‘election speech’

Indian prime minister appeals for peace in conflict-ridden Manipur as critics accuse him of using national day to deliver ‘distortions, lies, exaggerations and vague promises’

Narendra Modi has said that India’s economy will be among the top three in the world in the next five years, as he addressed the nation on the occasion of the country’s 77th Independence Day.

Speaking from the rampars of Delhi’s 17-century Mughal-era Red Fort, the Indian prime minister said the country had risen through the rankings of global economies since “we came to power in 2014, [when] we were at 10th position”.

“Today, with the efforts of 140 crore (1.4 billion) Indians, we have reached the fifth position. This did not happen just like that. The demon of corruption that had the country in its clutches – we stopped leakages and created a strong economy,” he said.

"When poverty decreases in a country, the power of the middle class increases considerably," he said. "In the next five years, I promise India will be among the top three economies in the world."

His statement comes after reports last year from S&P Global and Morgan Stanley forecast that India’s economy would overtake Japan and Germany’s to become the world’s third-largest by 2030.

India’s $3.5 trillion economy surpassed the UK last year to become the fifth largest. Mr Modi said he was confident that when India marks 100 years of independence in 2047, it will do so as a developed nation.

In effect the speech represents Mr Modi’s pitch for next year’s general election, when he will seek a third five-year term. “The next five years are for unprecedented development,” he said. “The biggest golden moment to realise the dream of 2047 is the next five years. The next time, on 15 August [next year], I will present before you the achievements and developments of the country from this Red Fort.”

India’s main opposition party, Congress, called the address a “crass election speech” using the platform of one of the country’s most important national holidays to give his party’s pitch for 2024.

Critics said there was no mention of the country’s struggles with growing unemployment, which reached eight per cent last month, an only a limited reference to the violence-hit northeastern state of Manipur, which Mr Modi saying that “peace is slowly returning to the region”.

Mr Modi’s government has deployed large numbers of security forces to the hilly state bordering Myanmar, which is also governed locally by his Bharatiya Janata Party, but the violence has continued and large parts of Manipur remain segregated along tribal lines.

India’s prime minister Narendra Modi addresses the nation from the ramparts of the Red Fort during the celebrations to mark country’s 77th Independence Day in New Delhi on 15 August 2023 (AFP via Getty Images)

"For some days now, we are getting reports of extended peace. The country is with the people of Manipur. The country wants the people of Manipur to hold on to the peace of the last few days and take it forward,” Mr Modi said.

The prime minister has largely avoided speaking about the conflict in the state between members of the majority Meitei ethnic group and minority Kuki people, which began with a row over competition for government benefits linked to education, jobs and influence.

It has claimed over 180 lives and led to the displacement of over 50,000 people, while numerous incidents of gang-rape and abuse of women have grabbed global attention while raising questions about his party’s ability to govern the state.

The Congress party slammed the prime minister’s address as being “filled with distortions, lies, exaggerations and vague promises”.

“On 15 August 2023, rather than reporting to the people what his government had achieved in the past nine years, Prime Minister Modi gave a crass election speech filled with distortions, lies, exaggerations and vague promises. Instead of bringing the country together, to celebrate our journey so far, acknowledge the pain and anguish of those suffering, and accept the challenges ahead, he made it all about himself and his image,” said Congress communications chief Jairam Ramesh.

He said that the prime minister barely “addressed the devastation caused by the violence in Manipur, casually comparing it with incidents in other parts of the country”.

“Modi showed no sorrow or acknowledgment of the abject failures which have led to Manipur turning into a war zone,” he said.

India celebrates its Independence Day a day after neighbour Pakistan. The two countries came into existence as a result of the bloody partition of British India in 1947.

The process sparked some of the worst communal violence the world has seen and left hundreds of thousands dead. It also triggered one of the largest human migrations in history as some 12 million people fled their homes.