Stay up to date with notifications from The Independent

Notifications can be managed in browser preferences.

Jump to content
UK EditionAsia EditionEdición en Español
Sign up to our newslettersSubscribe: $6 for 6 months
More
Best
Climate
TV

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in

John Curtice

@indyvoices

John Curtice is professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde

<p>Despite his party’s poll lead, Starmer has been unsuccessful at impressing himself on voters </p>
Voices

Starmer is unpopular: If Sunak gets it right Labour lead could vanish

<p>The message is clear: if the Conservatives are to regain their lost support, they need to crack the hard nut of solving Britain’s fiscal and economic crisis</p>
Voices

The Tory party conference is starting to look more like a wake

<p>The Liberal Democrats’ low poll rating threatens to reduce the number of seats where the party might profit from any anti-Conservative mood </p>
Voices

The Lib Dems are doing themselves no favours by sidestepping Brexit

<p>New MP Keir Mather (centre), with Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner </p>
Voices

The message Starmer and Labour must heed from by-election voters

<p>Labour would be expected to win Uxbridge in a general election if it were on course to win an overall majority</p>
Voices

Could tactical voting force Rishi Sunak out of No 10?

<p>Labour spokespersons were keen to argue that the results demonstrated Sir Keir Starmer’s success</p>
Voices

Were the election results due to Labour success or Tory failure?

<p>Although the gap has narrowed somewhat in recent weeks, the Conservatives are still 15 points behind Labour</p>
Voices

The Tories could be heading for a drubbing in the local elections

<p>When the celebrations are over, a more sober mood might emerge</p>
Voices

Yousaf has won the SNP leadership – but the real fight starts now

<p>The losses are bound to be greater than the conventional approach to estimating seat outcomes would suggest</p>
Voices

Tory losses could be greater than any we’ve seen before

<p>Jeremy Hunt’s decision to focus his limited largesse on the less well-off has been more favourably received</p>
Voices

What does the autumn Budget mean for the next election?

<p>In truth, the ‘mandate’ Johnson won in 2019 has not aged well</p>
Voices

Is Boris Johnson still a vote winner?

<p>Liz Truss and her government have to deal with the still-polarised views on Brexit </p>
Voices

The problem Truss faces over Brexit is that it isn’t ageing very well

<p>The verdict from the ballot boxes may not be so kind for the prime minister</p>
Voices

The Tories are at risk of losing more than both by-elections

Voices

The Tories are at risk of losing more than both by-elections

<p>The verdict from the ballot boxes may not be so kind for the prime minister</p>
<p>Tory losses of overall control could prove particularly thin on the ground</p>
Voices

How the local elections could make or break Boris Johnson

<p>Brexit may be done, but it looks as though the debate is still far from over</p>
Voices

The public is far from ready to ‘move on’ from the Brexit vote

<p>New Liberal Democrat MP Sarah Green, left, with party leader Ed Davey</p>
Voices

The Lib Dem by-election win raises two key questions for the party

<p>‘Boris Johnson has to face the challenge of how to ensure that Scotland remains in the union even though its government and half of its voters wish to leave’</p>
Voices

Johnson has been left little room for error when it comes to Scotland

<p>‘Boris Johnson has to face the challenge of how to ensure that Scotland remains in the union even though its government and half of its voters wish to leave’</p>
Voices

Johnson has been left little room for error when it comes to Scotland

<p>Donald Trump appeared to be way behind Joe Biden in the polls, but the reality was more complicated</p>
Voices

The polls were clear – this election would be too close to call

Related video: European parliament says it won't ‘consent’ to watered-down trade deal
Voices

The Brexit extension row won’t trouble Johnson – he needs Leave voters

‘Brexit is, of course, the immediate reason why England and Wales now have four-party politics’
Voices

In the coming election, a four-party fight puts victory up for grabs

An alliance of Remain-supporting parties that includes Labour could take up to 50 seats off the Conservatives at a general election
UK Politics

While Remain vote is scattered, Johnson is destined to win a majority

The social geography of the 2017 general election was shaped by attitudes towards Brexit
Long Reads

How the 2017 general election determined the fate of Brexit

Opinion has not turned the corner following its disastrous loss of support during the coalition government
Voices

Weak Lib Dem polling shows little support for a second referendum

Picking up either of the Tory districts of Wandsworth and Westminster looks like a tall order
Voices

Jeremy Corbyn might be bitterly disappointed in the local elections

Theresa May clung to power by asking the DUP to support her Conservative minority government
Voices

Theresa May grossly misunderstood the 'will of the people'

Opinion has not turned the corner following its disastrous loss of support during the coalition government
Voices

Weak Lib Dem polling shows little support for a second referendum

Picking up either of the Tory districts of Wandsworth and Westminster looks like a tall order
Voices

Jeremy Corbyn might be bitterly disappointed in the local elections

Theresa May clung to power by asking the DUP to support her Conservative minority government
Voices

Theresa May grossly misunderstood the 'will of the people'

Almost every polling company finds that Labour is now at least twice as popular as the Conservatives amongst those aged under 35
Voices

Which election poll is right? That’s up to young people to decide

Voices

Which election poll is right? That’s up to young people to decide

Almost every polling company finds that Labour is now at least twice as popular as the Conservatives amongst those aged under 35
Prime Minister Theresa May speaks to the media as the local election results came in
Voices

The Tories face an uphill battle, despite the local election results

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is expected to suffer some big defeats on 4 May
UK Politics

Governments fear local elections, but Labour is running scared

Hillary Clinton has a clearer path to the White House than Donald Trump - but the result is far from certain
Voices

What do the final polls tell us about who will win the US election?

The Labour leader is given a violin lesson by 10 year old Jessica Kelly during a visit to Faith Primary School in Liverpool today
UK Politics

'Labour set for worst election defeat since 1935'

The Labour leader is given a violin lesson by 10 year old Jessica Kelly during a visit to Faith Primary School in Liverpool today
UK Politics

'Labour set for worst election defeat since 1935'

London voted to Remain, while the rest of the country leant towards leaving the European Union
Voices

What the EU referendum results tell us about Brexit Britain

Britain is likely to look like a seriously divided country by Friday
UK Politics

Britain is likely to be 'seriously divided' after Brexit vote

Jeremy Corbyn leaves his house in London
Voices

Labour's results better than expected - but not good enough for Corbyn

Services activity in April was its weakest since February 2013
Voices

Economy will be decisive in making voters’ minds up in EU referendum

ITV Leaders' Debate 2015
Voices

Why the opinion polls got the last general election so wrong

David Cameron's Conservative Party has said that it will hold a referendum on the UK's EU membership
Europe

Britain would vote to stay in the EU if asked today

Jeremy Corbyn poses for a selfie with a supporter in Brighton
Comment

Labour mobilising young voters will be vital – but it is not enough

Prime Minister David Cameron and wife Samantha arrive at his Tory headquarters in central London after the General Election put his Conservative Party on the brink of securing an absolute majority in the House of Commons
General Election 2015

Election results: What went so wrong for the pollsters

General Election 2015

General Election 2015: The 75 seats that will decide who governs

David Cameron addressing staff at the Asda headquarters in Leeds
General Election 2015

General Election 2015: Tories pick up in the polls - but they still

Neither the Conservatives nor Labour have secured a decisive edge, with both standing at 33 per cent apiece
General Election 2015

Polls: Tories and Labour deadlocked as smaller parties grow

General Election 2015

Polls: Tories and Labour deadlocked as smaller parties grow

Neither the Conservatives nor Labour have secured a decisive edge, with both standing at 33 per cent apiece
Ed Miliband meeting students at Warwick University on Wednesday
General Election 2015

General Election 2015: Labour remains strong in polls despite personal

General Election 2015

General Election 2015: Tories win first week of campaigning as polls

Ed Miliband is currently the narrow favourite to be the next prime minister in the polls
Voices

General Election 2015: No sign of a clear winner as the race begins

In this election it is less straightforward to identify the constituencies that were likely to determine the outcome of a general election
General Election 2015

General Election 2015: The 60 seats that could decide the outcome

In this election it is less straightforward to identify the constituencies that were likely to determine the outcome of a general election
General Election 2015

General Election 2015: The 60 seats that could decide the outcome

In this election it is less straightforward to identify the constituencies that were likely to determine the outcome of a general election
General Election 2015

General Election 2015: The 60 seats that could decide the outcome

Ed Miliband contends with difficult questions from Jeremy Paxman
Comment

Battle for Number 10: Miliband survives a rough ride but Cameron takes

Voices

'Insurgent' parties gaining support from voters

Nigel Farage and members of the UKIP team celebrate after Mark Reckless won the Rochester and Strood by-election at Medway Park, Gillingham near Rochester, Kent
UK Politics

The Rochester and Strood result may make Conservative MPs ready to

Douglas Carswell stands with Nigel Farage on October 9, 2014 in Clacton-on-Sea, England.
Comment

Clacton by-election: The Ukip bubble shows no signs of deflating quite

David Cameron and Alex Salmond signed the Edinburgh Agreement two years ago
Comment

Scottish referendum's swings and turnabouts: two years on the long

Ballot boxes for today’s referendum being delivered in Edinburgh
Comment

Scottish independence: A nail-biting time for politicians – but for

Yes supporters gather outside the Usher Hall, Edinburgh. The latest polls suggest that the 'No' campaign is slightly ahead
Scottish independence

Scottish indepence polls: All to play for as result comes down to the

The Yes side don’t believe Scotland will lose the pound
Comment

Scottish independence: The Yes side don’t believe Scotland will lose

A defaced Ukip poster in Sheffield. The three major parties face serious questions about strategy for next year’s general election
Comment

Unpopular big three give Farage room to manoeuvre

Nigel Farage in Essex yesterday; Ukip gained about 150 seats in the local elections
UK Politics

Local election results 2014: Gloomy results all round - unless you're

UK Politics

Local election results 2014: Gloomy results all round - unless you're

Nigel Farage in Essex yesterday; Ukip gained about 150 seats in the local elections
Voices

European elections 2014: Nerves all round, but Nick Clegg has most to

UK Politics

Scottish independence: Depending on the pollster, it looks like a

There was reason for Farage to smile this year
Comment

The three main parties suffered in the polls this year. Only UKIP

UK Politics

Analysis: Coalition may have its troubles after Ukip's rise - but Ed

UK Politics

Analysis: Coalition may have its troubles after Ukip's rise - but Ed

Diane James and Nigel Farage
UK Politics

John Curtice: Ukip are the moral victors of Eastleigh

UK Politics

John Curtice: Mid-term loss for the Tories has proved Ukip’s gain

Commentators

Ukip is sucking up voters Tories can ill afford to lose

UK Politics

Worrying for the Conservatives, a rebuff for the Lib Dems and good -

Comment

Size discrepancies of police force areas put Labour at a disadvantage

Lincoln (March 1973): Labour’s Dick Taverne forced this by-election when he quit the party over its anti-Common Market stance and contested it under the label Democratic Labour. He stormed home with 58 per cent support.
Commentators

John Curtice: Was this the biggest shock in by-election history? Not

Commentators

John Curtice: A solution that dare not speak its name

UK Politics

Liberal surge is biggest shock to electoral landscape for years

UK Politics

Tories' strong week leaves Cameron close to a majority

UK Politics

Why capturing the magic number of seats is harder for the Tories

UK Politics

Labour hurtles into history's abyss

UK Politics

Marginal seats make case for caution

UK Politics

System failure: all voters are equal, but some are more equal than

UK Politics

The apathy party has been biggest loser so far

UK Politics

Some Labour MPs will not be around to enjoy a third term

Commentators

Cold wind from Washington could blow away Labour's nine-point lead

UK Politics

The apathy party has been biggest loser so far

UK Politics

Some Labour MPs will not be around to enjoy a third term

Commentators

Cold wind from Washington could blow away Labour's nine-point lead

UK Politics

We may have three small losers rather than one big winner

UK Politics

Blair's nightmare could become Howard's reality

UK Politics

Tories snatch the lead from Labour in the polls

UK Politics

Little comfort for Blair as polls view report as a 'whitewash'

UK Politics

Nearly half of all voters cannot name Tory Party leader

UK Politics

Majority believe PM lied over war - but should stay in office

UK Politics

The faithful are justifiably elated, but where to now?

UK Politics

Defeat heralds a new era for the PM

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in