So what does the Stern Report mean for the world?


What is the Stern report, and what's so special about it?

It is the first really comprehensive review of the economics of climate change. For nearly 20 years it has been the science of climate change that has made all the headlines, as the world gradually realised that the continuing accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere was causing global temperatures to rise remorselessly. We have heard about disappearing glaciers, catastrophic floods and fatal heatwaves, and we have heard of dire predictions of worse to come in the future. We've heard a thousand calls to action, to stop global warming happening. But what would that cost the world? And what would doing nothing cost us? Hitherto, no one had any real idea. But now Sir Nicholas Stern and his team have come up with concrete numbers.

Does the report have a key conclusion?

Yes. That although dealing with global warming by cutting emissions of greenhouse gases will cost a lot of money - about 1 per cent of the world's gross domestic product, trillions of dollars - doing nothing about it will cost the world an awful lot more, anything from five to 20 times more. We face losing up to a fifth of the world's wealth from unmitigated climate change, says the review - if unchecked, it will devastate the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the 20th century's world wars.

Why is that conclusion important?

Crucially, because the world's leading climate change sceptics, which comprise the Republican business community in the United States and the Bush administration which so faithfully reflects their views, are against acting to prevent climate change by cutting carbon emissions on the grounds that to do so would damage the US economy. And as the Americans, who have 4 per cent of the world's population, produce nearly a quarter of all the world's greenhouse gases, any effort to fight climate change without them is doomed to failure. The Stern Review says, quite simply, that not acting is actually the much more expensive option. The US will be hit as much as anywhere else.

Will the American sceptics listen to that?

George Bush, Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld and Jubilation T Cornpone from the Republican National Committee are not going to go down on their knees and admit they were wrong, no. Or at least, not overnight. But the report cannot but have a very widespread and steadily growing influence, partly because of its scope and detail - it is 600 pages long and feels like a doorstep - and also because Sir Nicholas Stern is an immensely prestigious figure. He is not only the head of the Government Economic Service in the UK, he is a former chief economist of the World Bank in Washington. He is an economist, not an environmentalist.

What else does the report tell us that's important?

Another absolutely vital conclusion is that dealing with climate change, even though very costly, need not derail worldwide economic growth. The report stresses that the two are compatible. Major action to mitigate emissions, it says, is "fully consistent with continued growth and development". This will be very welcome to business, and to developmentalists, who for example see growth as Africa's only hope of escaping from poverty. But it will seem counter-intuitive to some more radical environmentalists, who have long contended that the world's remorseless pursuit of ever more riches cannot go hand in hand with solving the world's greatest environmental problem. The "deep greens" feel the way forward is for a different type of economic system based on sufficiency rather than growth. But politicians will be the most relieved of all at the Stern conclusion - Mr Blair made this quite clear yesterday. Where dealing with climate is concerned, the thrust of the Stern Review is this: out goes sackcloth and ashes, in comes having your cake and eating it (as long as you take the problem seriously, now).

Independent Comment
blog comments powered by Disqus
News in pictures
World news in pictures
From the blogs

Barking Blondes: When to vaccinate

Dr Ron Schultz, professor and chair of pathological sciences at The University of Wisconsin, joined ...

Doctor Who ‘The Name of the Doctor’ – Series 7, episode 13

What a wonderful way to end this momentous series in the 50th year of Doctor Who. From the start of ...

UKIP Surges to Record High

The UK Independence Party is on 19 per cent, the highest share recorded by any pollster, in a ComRes...

Dish of the Day: Short & Sweet

I know Dan Lepard nabbed it first for his wonderful book on baking but I’m eternally jealous, as it ...

       
iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

Teaching Programme Officer with Qualified Teacher Status

£28000 - £31500 per annum + benefits: Randstad Education Newcastle: Permanent ...

SAP FI-CA Consultant - up to £58k

£50000 - £58000 per annum + Benefits and Bonus: Progressive Recruitment: SAP F...

PHP/ Drupal Developer - £35k - WC

£30000 - £40000 per annum + BENS: Progressive Recruitment: Drupal Developer A ...

C# WEB DEVELOPER

£45000 - £50000 per annum + bens: Progressive Recruitment: C# WEB DEVELOPER Le...

Day In a Page

The price of pacifism: Refusing to go to war is finally being recognised as a brave act

The price of pacifism

From the Second World War refusenik to the 19-year-old Israeli, Holly Williams talks to five people who risked shame and suffering to take a stand as conscientious objector.
'It was mass hysteria': Jason Isaacs on groupies, theatre bores and snogging James Bond

Jason Isaacs: Groupies, theatre bores and James Bond

To millions, Jason Isaacs is one of Harry Potter's arch enemies – but his wife prefers him as a Scottish TV detective.
Notes from a small island: Is Sealand an independent 'micronation' or an illegal fortress?

Sealand: 'Micronation' or illegal fortress?

Thomas Hodgkinson spent a week at the tiny platform off the Suffolk coast to find out.
Not a bad bone: Mark Hix cooks with cutlets and ribs

Mark Hix cooks with cutlets and ribs

If you ignore cutlets and ribs, you'll risk missing out on some delicious and easy meals, says our chef.
The experts' guide to summer: From getting fit for the beach to recreating that Olympic buzz

The experts' guide to summer

From getting fit for the beach to recreating that Olympic buzz
Sex, drugs and fast cars: The legend of James Hunt has set Hollywood hearts racing

Legend of James Hunt has set Hollywood hearts racing

Early glimpses of Ron Howard's film Rush suggest it will portray Hunt as a high-living lothario, with an insatiable appetite for partying.
Macklemore: 'I don't have moderation when using drugs and alcohol. It was hurting my life'

Macklemore: 'I don't have moderation'

The next Vanilla Ice or the next Eminem? Macklemore doesn't have a record contract – but he does have the UK's biggest-selling single of the year.
Don't be shy: Bill Granger's Sri Lankan recipes

Don't be shy: Bill Granger's Sri Lankan recipes

Sri Lankan cuisine is light, sunny, wonderfully spiced – and so easy to cook from scratch. Just as soon as you've broken into the coconut, that is.
Sir James Dyson’s latest project: Cleaning up hospitals

Sir James Dyson’s latest project: Cleaning up hospitals

Doctors are hailing the revamp of a Bath neonatal unit, where babies sleep more and feed better, as the model for patient care
One man returns to Argentina's town that drowned

One man returns to Argentina's town that drowned

Epecuen was submerged under 10 metres of water in 1985. Now the floods have gone – and 83-year-old Pablo Novak has moved back in
The real thing? Historian publishes Coca Cola's 'secret formula'

The real thing?

Historian publishes Coca Cola's 'secret formula'
Gordon Ramsey's worst nightmare: A restaurant he cannot save

Gordon Ramsay's worst nightmare: A restaurant he cannot save

The pugnacious chef finally met a shambolic restaurant he couldn't save. John Walsh on when TV makover refuseniks fight back
Join Ryanair! See the world! But we're only paying you for nine months a year

Join Ryanair! See the world! But we're only paying you for nine months a year

Glamorous myth of the flight attendant lifestyle undermined by angry employee's claims of 'exploitation'
Braising saddles: Did the recent furore scupper sales of horse meat? Neigh, far from it!

Braising saddles: How to cook horse meat

Did the recent furore scupper sales of horse meat? Neigh, far from it! Will Coldwell hoofs it to the kitchen.
Why bitters are back on the bar: A few little drops pack a big punch in cocktails

Why bitters are back on the bar

A few little drops pack a big punch in cocktails. No wonder we're learning to love them again...