Could the ‘Cummings Effect’ hamper efforts to tackle a second coronavirus wave?

The 300-mile quest undertaken by the prime minister’s chief adviser has clearly not been forgotten, writes Sean O'Grady, but will it mean the public is less likely to adhere to the rules?

Cummings makes a statement from No 10 on 25 May (Getty)

Very few figures in public life have an “effect” named after them, though many might wish to be so honoured. In the case of the prime minister’s senior adviser Dominic Cummings, however, the arrival of the “Cummings Effect”, as a properly defined and researched phenomenon in social science, is hardly something to celebrate, even with the kind of dark humour that keeps people going in a crisis.

Published in no less a journal than The Lancet, the study of the Cummings Effect involved more than 220,000 survey results from more than 40,000 individuals between 24 April and 11 June. The sum was to measure the negative impact of the news that Cummings had travelled around 300 miles with his wife (who had suspected Covid-19) and child during lockdown.

The researchers found a clear decrease in confidence starting on 22 May (when the story came out, based on local sightings of the distinctive Cummings. Public support for compliance with lockdown continued to subside in the period when Downing Street tried to play down the story. It led news bulletins for days and dominated social media.