Alexander Lukashenko cannot survive as president of Belarus – and that matters to Vladimir Putin

Why should elections in Belarus be taken seriously? Because, writes Vladislav Inozemtsev, the country is seen as one of the most authoritarian in Europe, and freedom is considered one of the greatest Western values

Like Ukraine, Belarus may be on the cusp of seismic political change (Getty Images)

After I travelled to Kyiv in August 2004 to meet Viktor Yuschenko, for what then appeared to be the one and only favourable interview with him published in Russia that year, I returned to Moscow certain he would be elected the next president of Ukraine. As protests grew across the same country in early 2014, I had no doubt Viktor Yanukovich would soon deposed by the passionate crowd.

Now, like then, monitoring what has happened across Belarus cities during the last few weeks, I am sure there is no chance for that country’s president, Alexander Lukashenko, to survive elections scheduled for later this summer.

Just six months ago Lukashenko’s positions seemed unchallenged. The strongman appeared a fierce defender of Belarusian sovereignty as President Vladimir Putin of Russia tried to “closer integrate” two post-Soviet nations.