Money: No company can easily escape Labour's windfall tax - not even the world's favourite airline

I did expect a long lead-in to the general election, but not the record hustings hurdles the Prime Minister has lined up. At the end of the first week I am already bored with politician-speak. By the end of April I will be gibbering.

The market's immediate reaction was interesting. Everyone expects share prices to fall on a Labour victory, so why did it take the announcement of the date to send a shiver around the dealing community? Perhaps it is just the underlining of the time scale to which we are working. Maybe Cherie Blair will indeed be measuring the curtains for No 10.

What are the real worries for investors? The windfall tax stands out. Most people equate this with utilities. But look at the way water and electricity companies have been gobbled up over the past year. It would be a tax on the new American owners as much as on anyone.

Then there are the bus and rail companies. I can think of one or two commuters who would welcome some punishment meted out to train operators, but the scope seems pretty limited if a meaningful bit of bunce is to flow the way of the Exchequer.

Do not forget BT, though. It is still the largest "utility". Of course, BT's focus is increasingly offshore, but this is as much a reflection of the way in which the telecoms market is becoming a global business than fears of a high-spend socialist government targeting one of Britain's largest companies in an effort to claw back cash from any even half-way justifiable target.

Even British Airways may not be immune from the attentions of a new Scottish chancellor. The world's favourite airline could turn into Gordon Brown's favourite target. Many of the fears of investors are in the prices already, but no one is going to stick their head above the parapet until we learn the real cost, so expect a dull period for vulnerable stocks until after the first Labour budget.

Talking of the possible new incumbent of No 11, the rumours are that he will aim for a full Budget early in June. This is ambitious for somebody who has never held a Cabinet post before. Getting to grips with the Treasury and coaxing the right information out of the Mandarins will not be easy in the first weeks of the new government. Even if the most likely scenario is a budget with measures based on the first half of the two-envelope story, I find it difficult to see how much real judgement can be exercised after so short a period in the office.

Which is why I worry that Mr Brown might go for an easy option and reduce, or even abolish, the tax credit that accompanies share dividends. This has the merit that it will hit few voters in the pocket immediately, will be virtually impossible to understand for the majority of the population, and yet could contribute pounds 5bn plus to the Exchequer.

Why is it such an important move? Well, no tax credit, no ability to reclaim tax if you are a pension fund, a personal equity plan or a charity. Imagine the effect this will have on cash flows for our pension fund industry, given that 85 per cent of their investments are in ordinary shares. When previous Conservative chancellors chipped away at this benefit, the market reacted severely. Abolition could see a bid downward rerating of shares. Time to mind your eye.

All this assumes that the socialists will win. The British electorate is quite perverse, often favouring the underdog. But it is a brave commentator who will predict a Tory win with the polls standing in their present state.

Perhaps even now Mr Major is preparing the two envelopes to which I referred earlier. The story relates to an outgoing head of state who handed to his successor two envelopes, marked No 1 and No 2. The advice he gave was to open No 1 when the first crisis hit the incoming government and No 2 when the second one arose. Sure enough, after less than a year the government's popularity had fallen and the economy was in a mess. The new head of state opened No 1. It contained just two words - "blame me".

He did, and the problem was solved.

The second crisis arose and the country's leader was keen to seek the advice of his predecessor. This time the envelope contained more detailed instructions. "Prepare two envelopes," it said.

Brian Tora is chairman of the investment strategy committee at Greig Middleton, stockbrokers (0171-392 4000).