Bonuses, profits and profiteroles

As the banks' results season gets under way, James Moore looks at what to expect from the big boys' presentations

The banking results season gets into high gear this week as Barclays prepares to face the press, the public and its investors. With the firestorm over the bonus awarded to Royal Bank of Scotland's boss Stephen Hester barely having abated, it promises to be a fraught and fractious few weeks in the banking industry.

RBS thought that by announcing its plans for Mr Hester early it would get the contentious issue out of the way before releasing its results proper. Whoever took that decision ended up with egg on their faces, after the revelation ignited a vicious political row that culminated in Labour threatening to force a House of Commons vote.

Mr Hester was left with little choice but to retreat. Antonio Horta-Osorio, his counterpart at the other state-backed bank, Lloyds, had already taken the same decision, but he had little choice having taken several weeks sick leave last year.

Barclays' chief exec, Bob Diamond,and Stuart Gulliver, the head of HSBC, are unlikely to give in so easily. Their banks didn't receive taxpayer aid. At least not direct taxpayer support.

But trading conditions have been tough. They may have to rely on accounting tricks and excluding one-off losses – such as the cost of payment protection insurance compensation – to show a serious increase in profit.

Here, then, is our guide to what to expect from each of the banks, how we think they will answer the big questions, and, crucially, what the nibbles will be like at the results presentations for journalists and analysts.

Lloyds, 24 February, Antonio Horta-Osorio, chief executive

What it'll make

Pre-tax loss of about £560m. But Lloyds is even more complicated than the others because of its big life insurance business, so there are many numbers. No dividend.

What they'll say

It's very challenging but Lloyds is doing a good job of integrating HBOS. We're ahead of our internal targets and we're starting the transformation of the business – which includes new hires such as head of retail, Alison Brittain, below – so we can pay back the taxpayer. The bank is now much less risky. Much like RBS, in other words.

How they'll say it

This is Mr Horta-Osorio's first set of finals so it is something of an open question. Previously, Lloyds held its briefing around a boardroom-style table, the media on one side, the executives (and chairman Sir Win Bischoff) on the other. Typically the execs would glower at the press corps, with the notable exception of affable finance director Tim Tookey, who is headed for pastures new. With the interest in Mr Horta-Osorio, however, the bank may opt for an auditorium-style presentation.

And the after party?

Again, hard to say. Mr Horta-Osorio's predecessor, Eric Daniels, didn't like to stick around. The nibbles were in the "comfort food" camp. And none the worse for it. The Yorkshire puddings and the mini beef burgers have been a particular highlight.

The big question?

So how are you feeling now you're back on the job, Antonio? Mr Horta-Osorio's absence due to an unspecified illness that left him unable to sleep was one of the big stories of last year. He's lucky in Sir Win, his supportive chairman, who publicly staked his reputation on Mr Horta-Osorio being up to the job on his return. There'll be lots of questions on how the notorious control freak is getting on with delegating and whether he might ultimately appoint a deputy or a chief operating officer.

How they'll answer it?

Expect Mr Horta-Osorio, who fought hard to hold on to his job, to come out all guns blazing. He'll probably say he's raring to go, although there'll be much talk about his improved delegating skills. Given that Lloyds is an Olympic sponsor, perhaps he could come in his tennis gear (he plays once a week) and Nikes?

HSBC, 27 February, Stuart Gulliver, chief executive

What it'll make

Some $18bn (£11.4bn) pre tax and other deductions. About £11bn. Plus a $0.38 dividend.

What they'll say

Despite a challenging climate, HSBC continues to go from strength to strength, or words to that effect.

How they'll say it

Well here's the thing. HSBC is the big one. It used to run a huge set-piece press conference with a video link to any executives who were in Hong Kong, global ads running on a big screen, the works. That's gone. Now there's just a conference call. HSBC's reasoning is that this is the easiest way to manage the global media and because Hong Kong journalists get upset that it is always done in London. Others might just say its executives, in the present climate, are just gutless and afraid to face critics.

And the after party?

Used to be the best of the bunch. PR men would carefully guide executives to journalists based on their location and interests for one-to-one chats. There was even a full-blown lunch on offer, with dishes from HSBC's various territories. Lunches don't really matter though. For all their faults, Messrs Diamond, Hester, and Horta-Osorio are at least willing to face the media. HSBC, it seems, is not.

The big question?

Location, location, location. Oh, there'll be a bit on bonuses, particularly Mr Gulliver's. But HSBC usually reports late, and at least some of the fire will probably have gone out of that issue (at least until the annual reports are published in March). HSBC's continued and none too subtle threats to pull out of London if the Government keeps being mean to banks, is the big one.

How they'll answer it

The stock line is that HSBC keeps its location under regular review. It loves London, and it presents many advantages. But some shareholders (they won't be named) have asked why it puts up with the tax and the Government being stroppy. The thing is, HSBC wasn't anything like as keen to listen to shareholders when some of them objected to its attempt to lavish Mr Gulliver's predecessor, Michael Geoghegan, with a big pay rise.

RBS, 23 February, Stephen Hester, chief executive

What It'll make

Perhaps about £1.5bn, pre tax and after PPI compensation. But don't be fooled. There will be a string of one-off charges, apart from the cost of PPI compensation. Banks' numbers can also be inflated by changes in the value of their own debt. So take whichever figure you want. No dividend.

What they'll say

Trading is tough but despite all the obstacles that come our way, we are getting on with the job of repairing RBS. And we're ahead of our own targets for where we should be right now, so we're on track to transform the business and pay the taxpayer back.

How they'll say it

Expect a certain amount of defensiveness on the part of RBS given the kicking it has taken over the past week or so. RBS used to hold its press conferences in a cavernous auditorium at its London base near Liverpool Street station. This time things will be rather less formal and the presentation will be in a meeting room on the 11th floor. Mr Hester has on previous occasions gone a deep shade of red as the Q & A session gets fraught. He's also been known to put his foot in it by saying the wrong thing. Chairman Sir Philip Hampton has an easier style, but he too landed himself in it a couple of years ago by admitting RBS had more than 100 millionaires.

And the after party?

Short. The top men will hang around a bit to pick at the finger food, but they like to whizz off, blaming the need for broadcast interviews. The nibbles are what you would expect from the austerity bank. It's a far cry from when Fred Goodwin was in charge, when there was sushi, scallops and fine wine on offer.

The big question

They could ask why RBS bosses always seem to be in Swiss ski chalets: Mr Hester was in one when he decided to decline his bonus last weekend, while Mr Goodwin is believed to have fled to another after being stripped of his knighthood. More likely, are more questions over the £500m or so in bonuses going to its investment bankers.

How they'll answer it

Sir Philip will probably deal with the issue. His line will be similar to what he said on Friday. Bankers are paid too much, he'd like the figure to be lower, but RBS has to pay the going rate and, given its importance to UK plc, we'll have to put up with it.

Barclays, 10 February, Bob Diamond, chief executive

What it'll make

Statutory pre-tax profit of about £5.9bn. Paid 3p in interim dividends so far. Final may come to 6p.

What they'll say

Things aren't easy. But they will point out that it, once again, made a chunky profit. They may well highlight the amount of tax it pays, which was a popular tactic among banks a couple of years ago and could be due for a return.

How they'll say it

Slick and confident. Its executives will be briefed to deal with any question, helped by the fact that its in-house PR team is about the best in the business. The event is held in the bank's presentation suite at its Canary Wharf HQ. Finance director Chris Lucas goes through the numbers and, unusually, Barclays, to its credit, has director of risk Robert LeBlanc on hand to answer questions. The entertainment factor will come if Mr Diamond, who will handle most of the Q & A session, gets rattled. He has a short fuse and has snapped before over the scrutiny given to the bonus issue, and his bonus in particular.

And the after party

Barclays annoyed a lot of people when, on one occasion, all its executives ran. But it is too sharp an operation to repeat a mistake. The executives will head to the waiting area and join the media in chowing down on snacks, sandwiches and canapes. These have been getting better and better. Usually Mr Diamond and Marcus Agius, the chairman, find themselves at the centre of a scrum. The PR people have been known to try to encourage people to speak to other executives so they don't feel left out.

The big question

What's Bob's big number? There's no getting away from the fact that this is what everyone wants to know.

How they'll answer it?

They probably won't. The uber-smooth former investment banker Mr Agius will likely take the question and he'll refuse to comment until the annual report is released in March.