Stay up to date with notifications from The Independent

Notifications can be managed in browser preferences.

The Investment Column: Emap's only a hold as its jobs advertising takes a knock

The Game's not worth playing at these kinds of prices; Aberdeen's comeback promises even more

Edited,Saeed Shah
Wednesday 28 September 2005 00:00 BST
Comments

In the UK, the company has consumer magazines which include gossip title Closer and men's mag Zoo, business-to-business magazines and exhibitions, and the second-biggest radio business, including the Kiss and Magic brands. It also has consumer publications in France and it sells its highly successful FHM men's title in the US.

The UK media sector is not having an easy time, with advertising remaining a volatile source of revenue. The particular problem high-lighted by Emap in a trading update yesterday, ahead of interim results, was recruitment ads in its business-to-business division, which have fallen 14 per cent in the current financial year.

The decline has been felt in its public sector titles, especially Nursing Times, where volumes are down 30 per cent. This is down to general budgetary constraints in the NHS and also the introduction of a free website for all NHS recruits.

So with business-to-business jobs advertising generally doing rather well - shown in the Centaur figures the other week - this is a reminder that the sector is very dependent on conditions in the niches in which a company plays. Display ads and events are well up in the business-to-business operations.

Also on the negative side, French consumer magazine revenues are expected to be down 7 per cent for the first half. But at least the two TV listings titles, which were hit by new competition, have now stabilised. And the recent launch of a French version of Closer has been a run-away winner.

UK consumer revenues are up 2 per cent on an underlying basis, while radio is also 2 per cent higher, where the company is outperforming the market. Emap remains a good company, with fantastic brands, but the negatives mean that, at 809p, the shares are a hold.

The Game's not worth playing at these kinds of prices

Investing in Game Group is quite literally a game of chance. If shareholders are lucky, the video games retailer will defeat the bogeyman (intense price deflation), slay the monsters (an ever-increasing number of competitors) and find the princess (Microsoft's new Xbox 360 that launches on 2 December).

Then again, if the consumer backdrop remains tough, the likes of Tesco ramp up their attempts to conquer the video games market and Sony or Microsoft fail to churn out enough hardware to meet the predicted demand, it could be Game Over by Christmas.

The company had a terrible start to the year. Sales, losses and margins went backwards as the computer games market trod water, with Nintendo the only manufacturer to launch a new machine. Losses before tax in the six months to 31 July ballooned to £14.7m from £3.5m and the gross margin shed 146 basis points. In the absence of customers to serve, Game instead concentrated on opening stores.

The hype about the next generation of consoles has pushed shares higher this year. But at 84.5p, down 2p, they look overvalued given the risk that last year's Sony PlayStation 2 fiasco - a shipment got stuck in the Suez Canal - could be repeated. Keep avoiding.

Aberdeen's comeback promises even more

Martin Gilbert, the chief executive of Aberdeen Asset Management, is the comeback kid of the City. While most were impressed to see him keep the company afloat through the split-capital investment trust débâcle - which damaged the group's reputation, not to mention its share price - few would have bet on him pulling off a £265m acquisition this summer.

The purchase of Deutsche Asset Management's UK business has been yet another canny move for the group, giving it a foothold in the retail market, as well as boosting its fast-expanding institutional asset base.

In spite of launching a discounted three-for-two rights issue to fund the acquisitionAberdeen's shares have continued to rocket. Those who sensibly took up their rights will have almost doubled their money in just a few months.

Last time we looked at this stock, six months ago, its shares had doubled in 10 months, and we advised investors to buy. Since then, the stock is up another one-third. With the company trading at a relatively modest valuation, once the profits from the Deutsche business have been factored in, there is surely more to come. At 107.5p, buy.

Join our commenting forum

Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies

Comments

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in