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David Prosser's Outlook: How HSBC wants you to pay more

Wednesday, 28 May 2008

The demand by Michael Geoghegan for higher interest rates around the world no doubt makes sense in the context of rising inflation. But the HSBC chief executive's message is presumably not one which many of its mortgage customers would like to see central banks heed.

Nor is Mr Geoghegan's advice particularly sensible. If central banks around the globe were indeed to raise the cost of borrowing sharply, they probably would get on top of inflation more quickly than current policies allow. But the cost of this short-term victory would almost certainly be a much more painful global recession than the slowdown for which we are now headed.

The Bank of England's current view, as expressed in its most recent Inflation Report, is that inflation will spike upwards for much of the remainder of this year before an economic slowdown brings price rises back down towards the 2 per cent target.

Similar debates about the balance between coping with short-term inflation and longer-term growth woes are now taking place around the world.

One certainty in the debate, however, is that a rise in the cost of borrowing would lead to an increase in the numbers of people struggling to cope with the cost of their mortgages – including, presumably, some HSBC home-loan customers. Ironic, given how aggressively the bank has targeted the UK mortgage market in recent weeks, with pricing set at notably more competitive levels than many of its rivals.

An additional certainty is that Mr Geoghegan does not think much of the UK Government's calls for pay-settlement restraint, another anti-inflation weapon. HSBC is expecting some rather vitriolic criticism at Friday's AGM over a new performance-related compensation package for senior board members thought to be worth £120m over the next three years.

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Why is it that the British press is so obsessed at bashing banks at any opportunity (disclosure: I work for a bank)?

Do you honestly think that Michael Geoghegan of HSBC is saying this because he enjoys the prospect of millions of people having to pay more for their borrowing?

Mr Prosser's title "How HSBC wants you to pay more" is a cheap shot at banks and has little to do with the article in question.

Furthermore, the article is unbalanced - if you're going to comment about executive compensation then surely you should place it context - e.g. what have the returns been to shareholders? Etc... rather than engaging in the childish game of saying that anyone earning above average wages is a 'fat cat'.

People like David Prosser, especially those working for a semi reputable publication like The Independent, should be able to inform readers, rather than incite them vs. us emotions.

Posted by Seb | 28.05.08, 11:49 GMT

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The problem is I'm not convinced that inflation will drop back on its own due to an economic slowdown. This inflation is input price inflation (factory price) rather than demand driven inflation. This inflation is affecting the cost of goods being produced and hence cost at which the retailers are buying the products is increasing. Simple economics says Retailers cannot sell new stock at prices lower than that at which it is procured (incl discounts). That slack is well and truly over. This 'nice decade' which saw the new super powers China and India emerge is over. Inflation in China and India are hovering around 8% and that has taken the slack out of the their value chains. That's the reason prices are going up. Hence the days of low interest rates are over.
I would rather have interest rates raised now then to have 16 continuous interest rate rises (which triggered this crisis in the US) trying to control runaway inflation later. Mind you I think the horse has already bolted.

Posted by Ed | 28.05.08, 09:58 GMT

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This loose monetary policy is what led the world to 20% inflation in the 70's and early 80's. Central banks (except perhaps the ECB) have rose tinted glasses on and this has the potential to lead to significant disaster. A couple of points off growth is a small price to pay to prevent a reasonable chance 20% inflation returning.

Posted by Ben | 28.05.08, 08:47 GMT

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