Exporters, and others, are in no hurry for a rate rise

Outlook

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Today we will discover whether the Bank of England agrees with Mr Rolet’s optimistic view of the economy, and something about how it proposes to manage it.

The so-called “Super Thursday” sees not only the release of Bank’s quarterly Inflation Report, but also the minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. All that and the latest decision on interest rates. No wonder economists and others who follow the central bank are beside themselves with excitement.

Much of their attention will be focused on those MPC minutes, and particularly on the level of dissent over whether and when rates should rise. The Bank’s view on inflation will have a strong influence on when “swing” votes fall into line.

Not too soon, please, says the British Chambers of Commerce, which represents many of the “Brittelstand” I referred to above. It frets that familiarity with low interest rates has bred contempt for their benefits. It may have a point.

Sterling’s strength, buttressed by the Bank’s indication that interest rate will start to rise by the end of the year, is having a detrimental impact on exports.

The latest survey data suggests that the manufacturing sector, in particular, is feeling the heat. If the Brittelstand is to thrive it needs the MPC to hear its concerns. And that doesn’t just apply to manufacturing.

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