Stephen Foley: I'll stick my neck out on Facebook
Stephen Foley is a former Associate Business Editor of The Independent, based in New York. He left in August 2012. In a decade at the paper, he covered personal finance, the UK stock market and the pharmaceuticals industry, and had also been the Business section's share tipster. Between arriving with three suitcases in Manhattan in January 2006 and his departure, he witnessed and reported on a great economic boom turning spectacularly to bust. In March 2009, he was named Business and Finance Journalist of the Year at the British Press Awards.
Saturday 12 May 2012
US Outlook One of the older and wiser writers on The Independent tells her young protégés that the first rule of column writing is: never make a prediction. I'm going to break her rule not once but twice in the next few lines.
First, I predict that Facebook shares are going to price crazy high and go crazy higher when they start trading at the end of this week. That's a pretty safe bet, you might think, given the mania around its roadshow, where wannabe investors queued round the block to get in; given that analysts are already publishing "buy" notes on the stock, an unusual thing to do before a flotation but which they say is in response to investors' demand for research; and given that a friend of mine who says "I don't know how this stock thing works" is nonetheless thinking of trying to get in on Facebook on the grounds that "I let my Dad talk me out of buying Apple stock at $85 in 2008".
Second, I predict that whatever happens on Day One of trading will be as nothing compared to how high the shares eventually get. I am certainly not suggesting anyone put anything other than spare gambling money into Facebook, because the risks are manifold. It has not yet proved a business model that would justify a $100bn valuation or anything close, and there is the risk that advertising on Facebook will turn out to be less effective, less popular and less expensive than it is now, not more as the company expects. But I do not believe Facebook will go the way of MySpace, given how ingrained it is in our lives, and I think that the company and wannabe investors are downplaying the second of its two revenue streams, namely the cut it takes of payments for and through apps on its site. So far most of that comes from silly Zynga games like FarmVille; in the future, Facebook could become a fully fledged marketplace for digital and offline content and for businesses not yet invented.
So there you go. Two predictions. And yes, I am aware that by making the second, I'm doing my little part to make the first come true.
- 1 James Foley 'beheaded': Isis video shows militant with British accent 'execute US journalist' – and warns Obama of more to come
- 2 ALS ice bucket challenge co-founder Corey Griffin drowns aged 27
- 3 Cilla Black defends Cliff Richard: 'I am positive that the allegations are without foundation'
- 4 Nicki Minaj finally releases predictable 'Anaconda' video
- 5 James Foley 'beheading': Met police warn public watching murder video could be criminal offence
James Foley 'beheaded': PM cuts holiday short for emergency meeting on British response to latest Isis atrocity
Michael Brown shooting: Police shoot and kill second young black man near Ferguson
ALS ice bucket challenge co-founder Corey Griffin drowns aged 27
James Foley 'beheaded': Isis video shows militant with British accent 'execute US journalist' – and warns Obama of more to come
Iraq crisis: Islamic State's message to America - 'We will drown you all in blood'
Scottish independence: English people overwhelmingly want Scotland to stay in the UK
Isis threat: Cameron wants an alliance with Iran
Crisis? What crisis? A visiting US doctor gives the NHS a rave review
Michael Brown shooting: Chaos erupts on the streets of Ferguson after autopsy shows teenager was shot six times – twice in the head
Richard Dawkins on babies with Down Syndrome: 'Abort it and try again. It would be immoral to bring it into the world'
Scottish Independence Referendum: Salmond described as 'arrogant, ambitious and dishonest' by Scottish women
iJobs Money & Business
£45000 per annum: Harrington Starr: Quantitative Analyst (Financial Services, ...
Negotiable: Harrington Starr: Application Support Engineer (C++, .NET, VB, Per...
£450 - £600 per day: Harrington Starr: AIFMD Business Analyst / Consultant - I...
£450 - £600 per day: Harrington Starr: Business Analyst Solvency II SME (Pilla...