The US government is putting "major pressure" on certain oil-producing countries to cheat on their Opec-imposed output quotas in an effort to bring crude prices down.
Last week, boosted by renewed expectations of US conflict with Iraq, crude prices surged above $30 (£19.7) for the first time in 18 months. That has in turn prompted fears that strong oil prices will cripple economic recovery.
According to London oil traders and sources close to Opec, the US has approached oil ministers in Venezuela, Nigeria and Kuwait and attempted to extract promises that those countries will produce more than the Opec-agreed quotas if Middle Eastern supplies are disrupted by military action. Although Saudi Arabia, Opec's largest-producing member, said it would meet any shortage in world supply, oil traders are not surprised the US is seeking other supply lines.
The prospect of US-induced cheating raises the spectre of a complete collapse in Opec unity. Nigeria's attitude to its quotas has already suggestedit could force itself out of the cartel, and many believe Opec's meeting on 19 September could be a significant turning point in its history. Even with just two of its 11 members turning maverick, the organisation would lose its control over world oil prices.
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