City raises PM's chances in election following his EU referendum speech

Suggested Topics

The City is betting that David Cameron has boosted his chances of being re-elected as prime minister in 2015 after his speech setting out plans for a referendum on the European Union.

Spread-betting firm IG Index now prices the Tories' chances of winning the next election at 27 per cent, up from 22 per cent before the speech.

Labour is still seen as the likely winner but leader Ed Miliband's chances have slipped to 36 per cent from 44 per cent.

James Goundry of IHS Global Insight said: "Politically, in the short-term the referendum commitment should help appease the many eurosceptics in the Conservative Party and help maintain unity in the long run-up to the 2015 general election.

"The commitment will also take some of the wind out of the sails of the United Kingdom Independence Party which campaigns for a British exit from the European Union.

"The party has polled relatively well in recent months and threatens to take votes away from Conservative MPs in important constituencies at the next general election."

IG Index last week warned of "low market volatility and fragile consumer sentiment" as it reported a 14 per cent slide in trading revenue.

Independent Comment
blog comments powered by Disqus
News in pictures
World news in pictures
       

Day In a Page

James Pembroke: The man who's eaten everywhere

The man who's eaten everywhere

Few people know more about restaurants than James Pembroke, who only spent five mealtimes at home during his entire childhood.
A Berliner in 1963 – but did John F Kennedy once admire Adolf Hitler?

A Berliner in 1963 – but did John F Kennedy once admire Adolf Hitler?

The young JFK praised 'superior' Nordic races during visits to Germany
Banned Iranian director Mohammad Rasoulof to attend Cannes Film Festival 2013, his first public appearance since prison

Banned Iranian director to attend Cannes Film Festival

Mohammad Rasoulof to make his first public appearance since being imprisoned three years ago
Seeing the larger picture: Inspiring images of space

Seeing the larger picture: Inspiring images of space

An exhibition explores images how photography has shaped astronomy
Eat Spam and carry on: Wartime pamphlets could teach us a thing or two about healthy, thrifty eating

Eat Spam and carry on

Wartime pamphlets could teach us a thing or two about healthy, thrifty eating
Facial hair: Cat beards and the purrrsuit of excellence

Facial hair

Cat beards and the purrrsuit of excellence
The 10 Best salt and pepper sets

The 10 Best salt and pepper sets

Whether they're for everyday use or to make your dining table look just right, it's worth getting a stylish shaker...
Ferran Soriano: Predicting success if Manchester City 'vision' is followed

Ferran Soriano: Predicting success if Manchester City 'vision' is followed

Chief executive says trophies will come if a 'core' of suitable players is in place
Thomas Müller: We couldn't handle losing a Champions League Final again

Thomas Müller: We couldn't handle losing a Champions League Final again

The Bayern Munich forward tells Tim Rich his side have to shed chokers' tag after two recent final defeats
Giro d'Italia: The Stelvio Pass - cycling's killer climb

The Stelvio Pass - cycling's killer climb

As the Giro d'Italia tackles the brutal climb, Simon Usborne takes on the snow and switchbacks – and soon realises what the fuss is about
National archives: Edward VIII’s phone calls - and how MI5 bugged them

Edward VIII’s phone calls - and how MI5 bugged them

Newly unearthed papers reveal a shocking extra dimension to the constitutional crisis over monarch’s abdication
Sent down at the Old Bailey: A tour of the world's most famous court

Sent down at the Old Bailey

A tour of the world's most famous court
Hollywood's random acts of red-carpet kindness

Hollywood's random acts of red-carpet kindness

The Hangover actor Zach Galifianakis’s date for his movie premieres isn’t arm candy  – it’s his 87-year-old friend who he saved from homelessness
British football scores an own goal

British football scores an own goal

Many managers barely survive a year in post. Martin Baker talks to experts who make a case for clubs using forensic business skills to find the best staff
James Lawton: Sergio Garcia cracks as major fault line opens up again

James Lawton

Sergio Garcia cracks as major fault line opens up again