The Week Ahead: Analysts split on whether to raise a glass to Diageo

The outlook will be among the key talking points on Thursday when Diageo, the drinks giant whose roster of brands includes Baileys liqueur, Smirnoff vodka and Johnnie Walker whisky, issues its full-year figures.

The City is divided. JP Morgan Cazenove, for instance, warns that the company may end up guiding towards "low single-digit" growth in organic earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) for 2011, but Evolution Securities has been telling clients that, in the absence of a "major macro double dip", such an outlook would be overly cautious.

"Making the uncontroversial assumption of double-digit Ebit growth across the group's emerging market footprint in 2011 will deliver 3 to 4 per cent of group growth. Add to this the 1.5 percentage points of growth to come from the absence of £45m of [one- off costs] in the first half of the year, and you already have mid-single-digit growth before even entering a discussion as to the heath and outlook for the US and European consumer," Evolution said, countering JP Morgan's caution.

Elsewhere, Collins Stewart also sided with the bears, noting that, like JP Morgan, it would be surprised if guidance pointed to anything more than mid- single-digit Ebit growth at Diageo. Then again, investors may not get such pointers, with UBS saying that it did not expect Diageo to publish guidance for 2011 so early in the fiscal year. "We could expect broad comments that the growth rate should be better than in 2010," UBS added. It anticipated confirmation of a slow recovery in the US, strength in emerging markets and challenges in Western Europe.



the lloyd's of London insurer Amlin is due to issue half-year numbers this morning and, given recent market chatter suggesting that it has been guiding down ahead of the results, Numis reckons the figures will probably "end up beating expectations". "Investment gains should have benefited from an above-average duration bond portfolio, albeit partially offset by losses on equities since an increase in weighting from 4 per cent to 8 per cent in the first quarter," the broker said. "Foreign exchange items are likely to be a mixture of US dollar gains and euro losses."

Panmure Gordon is looking forward to a "strong" update from the oil services group Petrofac, which is due to publish its half-year results. The broker is forecasting $192m in underlying net income, up from $170.7m last year, while the interim dividend is expected to swell by 12 per cent to 12 cents. And though the order book is forecast to stand at $6.1bn, down from $8.1bn at the end of last year, Panmure points out that this should have risen on the back of orders since the half-year stage.

Also today, the housebuilder Bovis Homes is due to post interim figures. Taking note of the recent raft of negative newsflow on the macroeconomic front, UBS expects the market to focus on trading over the past two months, in particular on "whether sales rates and prices have held up". In terms of headline figures, the broker anticipates £127m in sales for the first half, with operating profit of £7.7m and £6.4m in pre-tax profit.

Results/Updates: Kingspan, Petrofac, Lombard Medical Technologies, Bovis Homes and Amlin.



Tomorrow

Results/Updates: Antofagasta, Cairn Energy, Corin, CRH, Spectris, Development Securities, Persimmon, Spirax-Sarco Engineering, Wood Group.

Wednesday

UBS expects to hear of £560m in revenues, with £122m in pre-tax profits, when the temporary power provider Aggreko issues half-yearly numbers. "The key focus will be on the level of order intake in Aggreko's international power projects arm, which we expect to have remained strong," the broker said in a note last week.

"In the local businesses, we expect the US to have showed sequential recovery with pricing and volume improvements, although Europe is likely to be quite stable."

Results/Updates: Admiral, Aggreko, BHP Billiton, Chime Communications, Costain, Johnston Press, SIG, Serco and Tullow Oil.



Thursday

Numis is anticipating upbeat half-year results from the engineering group IMI, which issued what the broker termed "a very positive" interim management statement in April. Numis expects the group margin to expand by about 200 basis points to roughly around 15 per cent, with further expansion likely over the second half of the year.

Results/Updates: Amec, Bloomsbury Publishing, G4S, Hikma Pharmaceuticals, Huntsworth, IMI, Robert Waters, William Hill and Diageo.



Friday

Results/Updates: Aegis, Aga Rangemaster, Computacenter, Davis Service Group and Rightmove.

Today: Eurozone PMI data; Germany PMI data.

Thursday: Eurozone M3 money supply data.

Friday: UK second-quarter GDP data; Germany CPI data.

Start your day with The Independent, sign up for daily news emails
PROMOTED VIDEO
ebooks
ebooksA year of political gossip, levity and intrigue from the sharpest pen in Westminster
Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

iJobs Job Widget
iJobs Money & Business

Ashdown Group: Client Services Manager - Relationship Management - London

£30000 - £32000 per annum + benefits : Ashdown Group: A highly successful, int...

Recruitment Genius: Credit Controller / Customer Service

£18000 - £20000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: This rapidly expanding business...

Recruitment Genius: Tax Assistant

Negotiable: Recruitment Genius: A Tax Assistant is required to join a leading ...

Recruitment Genius: Outbound Sales Executive - OTE £25,000

£16000 - £25000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: This is an exciting opportunity...

Day In a Page

Syria crisis: Celebrities call on David Cameron to take more refugees as one young mother tells of torture by Assad regime

Celebrities call on David Cameron to take more Syrian refugees

One young mother tells of torture by Assad regime
The enemy within: People who hear voices in their heads are being encouraged to talk back – with promising results

The enemy within

People who hear voices in their heads are being encouraged to talk back
'In Auschwitz you got used to anything'

'In Auschwitz you got used to anything'

Survivors of the Nazi concentration camp remember its horror, 70 years on
Autumn/winter menswear 2015: The uniforms that make up modern life come to the fore

Autumn/winter menswear 2015

The uniforms that make up modern life come to the fore
'I'm gay, and plan to fight military homophobia'

'I'm gay, and plan to fight military homophobia'

Army general planning to come out
Iraq invasion 2003: The bloody warnings six wise men gave to Tony Blair as he prepared to launch poorly planned campaign

What the six wise men told Tony Blair

Months before the invasion of Iraq in 2003, experts sought to warn the PM about his plans. Here, four of them recall that day
25 years of The Independent on Sunday: The stories, the writers and the changes over the last quarter of a century

25 years of The Independent on Sunday

The stories, the writers and the changes over the last quarter of a century
Homeless Veterans appeal: 'Really caring is a dangerous emotion in this kind of work'

Homeless Veterans appeal

As head of The Soldiers' Charity, Martin Rutledge has to temper compassion with realism. He tells Chris Green how his Army career prepared him
Wu-Tang Clan and The Sexual Objects offer fans a chance to own the only copies of their latest albums

Smash hit go under the hammer

It's nice to pick up a new record once in a while, but the purchasers of two latest releases can go a step further - by buying the only copy
Geeks who rocked the world: Documentary looks back at origins of the computer-games industry

The geeks who rocked the world

A new documentary looks back at origins of the computer-games industry
Belle & Sebastian interview: Stuart Murdoch reveals how the band is taking a new direction

Belle & Sebastian is taking a new direction

Twenty years ago, Belle & Sebastian was a fey indie band from Glasgow. It still is – except today, as prime mover Stuart Murdoch admits, it has a global cult following, from Hollywood to South Korea
America: Land of the free, home of the political dynasty

America: Land of the free, home of the political dynasty

These days in the US things are pretty much stuck where they are, both in politics and society at large, says Rupert Cornwell
A graphic history of US civil rights – in comic book form

A graphic history of US civil rights – in comic book form

A veteran of the Fifties campaigns is inspiring a new generation of activists
Winston Churchill: the enigma of a British hero

Winston Churchill: the enigma of a British hero

A C Benson called him 'a horrid little fellow', George Orwell would have shot him, but what a giant he seems now, says DJ Taylor
Growing mussels: Precious freshwater shellfish are thriving in a unique green project

Growing mussels

Precious freshwater shellfish are thriving in a unique green project