The Week Ahead: Market awaits clues on ENRC-Kazakhmys link
Monday 07 April 2008
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The Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation, or ENRC as its better known around the market, has fast become one of the most watched mining stocks in London. Its share price has soared, from an offer price of 540p at the IPO in Dec-ember last year to 1,010p at the close on Friday. And it has earned a promotion, climbing from the FTSE 250 to take a place among the vaunted blue chips on the FTSE 100. So this week, as it prepares to publish its maiden preliminary results on Wednesday, ENRC will no doubt attract the att-ention of investors and traders alike.
Beyond numbers, where the market will look for growth in the lucrative iron ore and ferrochrome business, clues will be sought about the company's relationship with Kazakhmys, the other Kazakh miner in the FTSE 100. Market speculation has often mooted a marriage, or at least an alliance, between the two companies. It received fresh impetus on 12 March when ENRC said it was evaluating the prospect of a combination of the two businesses, adding: "While there has been informal dialogue with Kazakhmys, no formal proposal has been made..." In response, Kazakhmys said it had not received a proposal and the chatter dissipated for a while.
The rumours were reig-nited when the Government of Kazakhstan, which owns around 20 per cent of ENRC, said late last month that it wished to acquire up to 15 per cent of Kazakhmys. Nothing official has been forthcoming since – watch out for more news this week.
TODAY: The recruitment specialist Michael Page is due to publish a trading update today and analysts at Goldman Sachs expect to see evidence of yet more "robust" growth. "We believe Michael Page will have a strong Q1 with robust, if somewhat slower than 2007, levels of growth," Goldman said in a recent preview note. It added: "Outside banking [which makes up 8 per cent of group gross profit] the business should be operating in what SThree [another recruitment specialist] described as 'normal' markets, driven by labour scarcity, rising wages and structural growth from low levels in newer markets and disciplines."
Citigroup is positive, too. "Page has started the year with strong hiring plans, which almost certainly means that trading has held up relatively well," its analysts said, predicting £136m in first-quarter gross profits.
Results/Updates: Charles Taylor Consulting, Deltex Medical, Polymer Logistics, Speymill, Michael Page International.
TOMORROW: Results/Updates: 888 Holdings, Atlantic Global, Carecapital, China Central Properties, Real Good Food Company, Development Securities, Energetix, Getmobile Eur-ope, Alterian, PZ Cussons and Dawnay, Day Treveria.
WEDNESDAY: Signet, the company behind the H Samuel and Ernest Jones branded jewellery chains, is due to publish its preliminary results mid-week. Dresdner Kleinwort, whose analysts are forecasting $333m in pre-tax profits, expects the market to focus on the sales and commodity cost outlook, and on the company's success in raising its selling prices and bad debt experience.
"Current trade comments with preliminary results are usually no more than qualitative – we expect an unsurprisingly cautious tone," the broker said, adding: "In the US, we look for indications on the volume/margin response to the post-Valentine's Day price rises designed to claw back some of the significant commodity cost pressures."
The restaurant chain Prezzo is due to publish its final results on Wednesday.
According to Panmure Gordon, while sentiment in the sector is likely to remain poor in the short term, "Prezzo, like The Restaurant Group, has defensive attributes that are attractive", adding: "These include a strong balance sheet, attractive returns and organic growth, availability of low-ticket menu options and a national estate that is orientated towards more captive locations." The broker forecasts pre-tax profits of £10.5m on sales of £69.5m.
Results/Updates: Uruguay Minerals Exploration, Auto-logic Holdings, OJSC Cherkizovo, Entertainment Rights, Straight, Prezzo, Signet and the Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation.
THURSDAY: Hays is the second recruitment specialist scheduled to publish an update this week.
Evolution Securities, while forecasting overall net revenue growth of 18 per cent in the third quarter report, expects UK like-for-like growth to have retreated, to 8 per cent from 11 per cent in the second quarter and 12 per cent in the first quarter. "After strong trading in the first half, our estimates (which are close to consensus) are cautious, but provide room for early signs of slowing recruitment activity," the broker said.
Results/Updates: Cains Beer Company, Hardy Oil & Gas, IFG, Indago Petroleum, Landkom International and Hays.
FRIDAY: The food and drinks giant Cadbury Sch-weppes is due to publish its interim management statement. The company, which is in the process of de-merging its US soft drinks arm, is expected to reveal underlying sales growth ahead of its 4-6 per cent target range.
Results/Updates: Taylor Nelson Sofres, Cadbury Schweppes and Asian-logic.
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