The Week Ahead: Whitbread set to reveal sales growth slowdown

Toby Green
Monday 20 June 2011 00:00 BST
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Investors in Whitbread will not be blamed for feeling slightly nervous ahead of its first-quarter figures tomorrow, as both of the group's last two updates prompted major falls in its share price. The Costa Coffee owner has been hit by increasing fears over consumer and corporate spending, which has resulted in its share price dropping nearly 15 per cent since the start of the year.

With the company already having revealed its like-for-like sales growth had dipped in the first few weeks of the financial year, Numis Securities' Wyn Ellis believes expectations are "muted". The analyst is predicting sales at its coffee chain to have risen between 2.5 and 3 per cent, while he says its range of pub restaurants – which include Beefeater Grill– will see an increase of roughly 1.5 per cent.

In terms of the state of its Premier Inn unit, JP Morgan Cazenove notes Whitbread's pessimism ties in with the recent regional hotel data, warning that – despite London appearing more robust – only 10 per cent of business rooms are situated in the capital. The broker also cautions that some recent promotions from its rival in the budget hotel market, Travelodge, may have had a negative effect.

But Mr Ellis is confident about the chain's middle-term prospects, highlighting the company's positive aspects in relation to "growth opportunities in the hotel market driven by structural change as budget operators take share from independents".

Today

Results/Updates: Aggreko.

Tomorrow

Having risen more than 170 per cent in just over two years, Halma will be hoping it can maintain its ascent following the release tomorrow of its preliminary results. Credit Suisse is certainly positive, bullishly predicting the technology group's profit-before-tax will come in just under £107m, ahead of market expectations.

However, given its recent performance, the broker concedes that earnings consensus for the current financial year must increase by more than five per cent "to at least consolidate the recent share price momentum".

Results/Updates: Carnival, Domino Printing Sciences, Halma, RPC and Whitbread.

Wednesday

Attention turns towards Imagination Technologies, with the chip designer revealing its final results.

Peel Hunt's Alex Jarvis expects the group's license fees to have risen 15 per cent to £26.3m. The analyst adds that he sees "a chance of a moderate forecast beat" and suggests further positive sentiment could emerge if Imagination gives a target date earlier than 2014 for achieving 500 million units.

Matrix's analysts, however, note recent developments from its rivals NVIDIA and Arm Holdings as supporting their belief that Imagination will face "increasing pressure", and they estimate its market share in tablet devices will fall from its current level of 80 per cent to as low as 30 per cent by 2015.

Results/Updates: Imagination Technologies and Kesa Electricals.

Thursday

Micro Focus announces its preliminary results on Thursday, with the software group releasing its first update since the departure of its chief executive Nigel Clifford in April and its announcement last month that it has received a number of approaches. Pointing out that "in the past Micro Focus has blamed poor execution", Espirito Santo says Mr Clifford's departure suggests its recent profit warnings could be underpinned by other issues.

It adds that an "update from management on the steps taken to effect a turn-around will be key to determine whether a private equity bid can materialise". However, the broker's analysts do not expect a surprise to emerge from its full-year figures, forecasting revenues of $434m.

Also updating the market on Thursday is Dixons, but the electronics retailer is unlikely to provide many shocks with its numbers for the year, having already confirmed back in May that its underlying profit would be in the region of £85m in the wake of a warning in March. In terms of the next step, UBS says the group's "strategy has been explicitly laid out over the last few statements and we do not expect a significant update other than to re-iterate ongoing market share gains."

Yet the broker does note that – with both Kesa Electricals and Carphone Warehouse mulling over the possibility of departing the UK – competition may be about to ease, and adds that Dixon's "greater white goods and computing exposure should provide some offset" to recent disappointing data regarding the consumer electronics market.

Results/Updates: Dixons Retail, DS Smith, Go-Ahead and Micro Focus.

Friday

Results/Updates: Berkeley Group.

Economics Diary

Today

Rightmove house price index.

Tomorrow

CBI trends survey; Eurozone ZEW survey; Public sector finance data; US existing home sales.

Wednesday

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee minutes; Eurozone industrial new orders; US Federal Open Market Committee rate decision.

Thursday

CBI reported sales; Eurozone purchasing manager index data; US Chicago Fed national activity index.

Friday

US durable goods orders; US GDP; US personal consumption data.

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