Softer terms expected on Maastricht criteria
Saturday 07 June 1997
The chances of a single currency beginning on time are continuing to fall although a majority of The Independent's nine-strong panel of economists still believes the 1999 start date will be met.
Following a fall last week in the probability of EMU starting on time from 69 per cent to 61.4 per cent, there has been a further drop this week to 58.5 per cent. The probability of a delay has risen sharply from 30.6 per cent to 35.5 per cent.
Many of the panel members believe there is a political will to press ahead with EMU and there will be a less rigid interpretation of the Maastricht criteria which will result in the southern Mediterranean countries, Spain and Italy, being in a broader-based single currency.
Alex Garrard of UBS said: "The recent gold spat in Germany and the outcome of the French elections are likely to lead to softer terms." Along with other members of the panel, he was encouraged by the inclusion of many pro-Europeans in the new French cabinet. "On the whole this leaves us confident EMU will begin on schedule."
One of the main concerns is how the German government, in the words of Robert Prior at James Capel, will "have to balance the books without creative accounting".
- 1 Saudi preacher who 'raped and tortured' his five -year-old daughter to death is released after paying 'blood money'
- 2 The awkward moment Sarah Palin raised $25,000 for Hillary Clinton's election campaign
- 3 Ball pool for adults opens in London
- 4 Amal Clooney gives excellent response to fashion question at European Court of Human Rights
- 5 Baldness could soon be treated using stem cells, scientists hope
Woman falls to her death as she celebrates marriage proposal at the edge of Ibiza cliff
Saudi preacher who 'raped and tortured' his five -year-old daughter to death is released after paying 'blood money'
The awkward moment Sarah Palin raised $25,000 for Hillary Clinton's election campaign
Ball pool for adults opens in London
Amal Clooney gives excellent response to fashion question at European Court of Human Rights
9 reasons Greece's experiment with the radical left is doomed to failure
'We would evict Queen from Buckingham Palace and allocate her council house,' say Greens
Have we reached 'peak food'? Shortages loom as global production rates slow
Greece elections: Syriza and EU on collision course after election win for left-wing party
British grandmother Lindsay Sandiford faces execution by firing squad in Indonesia
Liberal Democrat minister defends comments suggesting immigration causes pub closures
iJobs Money & Business
£13000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: This Pension Specialist was established ...
£23000 - £26000 per annum + Benefits: Ashdown Group: Market Research Executive...
£25000 - £35000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: A Technical Report Writer is re...
Competitive salary & benefits!: MBDA UK Ltd: MBDA UK LTD Indirect Procurement...