Tokyo market: Nervy exporters are braced for a drop

Nikkei

JAPANESE exporters may suffer a fall this week over concern that inflation in the US is high enough to make the Federal Reserve raise rates in order to slow the economy. Exporters may also be threatened by a rise in the value of the yen, which could strengthen on demand from investors who are thinking of shifting funds into Japan, concerned that the US economy may not grow much more.

"Foreigners want to move out of the blue chips and into stocks which are not so affected by the strength of the yen," said Garry Evans, strategist at HSBC Securities.

The two largest Japanese indices were little changed last week, with the benchmark Nikkei 225 ending 30 yen higher than last Friday at 17,629.99. The Topix index ended 19 yen higher.

"The market's waiting for bank mergers, but with nothing concrete there they're running after smaller-capped stocks," said Paul Migliorato, a senior salesman at Commerz Securities (Japan).

Foreign investors are expected to continue to put money into Japan. The threat of higher rates in the US could make Japan a more attractive place to invest and limit falls in the benchmark index. Yet, if more foreign funds come into Japan, it will boost the value of the yen. Analysts at HSBC Holdings said they expect the yen to be worth about 100 per dollar next year, after initially forecasting a rate of 125 yen to the dollar. HSBC has also forecast that the yen will average 105 to the dollar between next month and March next year, while Japanese companies have based their full-year earnings forecasts on an average rate of 114.1.

The government will release GDP figures for April-June on Thursday. The economy probably contracted 0.3 per cent in that quarter from the quarter before, though that would mean GDP rose 0.5 per cent from the year before. The benchmark average soared 8.3 per cent to a 22-month high of 18,532 after the government said on 10 June that first-quarter GDP rose 1.9 per cent from the quarter before. Investors will watch the figures on Thursday for further signs that the economy is recovering.

Investors will also pay attention to the results of the Ministry of Finance second-quarter survey of corporate enterprises, which gives companies' estimates for sales and profits during that period.

The figure is closely related to GDP and many economists said they will revise up GDP forecasts if the figure is better than expected when released on Tuesday.

PROMOTED VIDEO
News
ebookA unique anthology of reporting and analysis of a crucial period of history
News
people
Life and Style
President Obama, one of the more enthusiastic users of the fist bump
science
Arts and Entertainment
Peter Griffin holds forth in The Simpsons Family Guy crossover episode
tv
Life and Style
Upright, everything’s all right (to a point): remaining on one’s feet has its health benefits – though in moderation
HealthIf sitting is bad for your health, what happens when you stay on your feet for a whole month?
News
Kristen Stewart and Rupert Sanders were pictured embracing in 2012
people
Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

iJobs Job Widget
iJobs Money & Business

Data Governance Manager (Solvency II) – Contract – Up to £450 daily rate, 6 month (may go Permanent)

£350 - £450 Per Day: Clearwater People Solutions Ltd: We are currently looking...

Java Developer - Banking - London - Up to £560/day

£500 - £560 per day: Orgtel: Java Developer FX - Banking - London - Up to £560...

HR Business Analyst, Bristol, £350-400pd

£350 - £400 per day + competitive: Orgtel: My client, a leading bank, is curre...

Account Manager - (Product & Account Management, Marketing)

£26000 - £30000 per annum + Benefits: Ashdown Group: Account Manager - (Produc...

Day In a Page

A new Russian revolution: Cracks start to appear in Putin’s Kremlin power bloc

A new Russian revolution

Cracks start to appear in Putin’s Kremlin power bloc
Eugene de Kock: Apartheid’s sadistic killer that his country cannot forgive

Apartheid’s sadistic killer that his country cannot forgive

The debate rages in South Africa over whether Eugene de Kock should ever be released from jail
Standing my ground: If sitting is bad for your health, what happens when you stay on your feet for a whole month?

Standing my ground

If sitting is bad for your health, what happens when you stay on your feet for a whole month?
Commonwealth Games 2014: Dai Greene prays for chance to rebuild after injury agony

Greene prays for chance to rebuild after injury agony

Welsh hurdler was World, European and Commonwealth champion, but then the injuries crept in
Israel-Gaza conflict: Secret report helps Israelis to hide facts

Patrick Cockburn: Secret report helps Israel to hide facts

The slickness of Israel's spokesmen is rooted in directions set down by pollster Frank Luntz
The man who dared to go on holiday

The man who dared to go on holiday

New York's mayor has taken a vacation - in a nation that has still to enforce paid leave, it caused quite a stir, reports Rupert Cornwell
Best comedians: How the professionals go about their funny business, from Sarah Millican to Marcus Brigstocke

Best comedians: How the professionals go about their funny business

For all those wanting to know how stand-ups keep standing, here are some of the best moments
The Guest List 2014: Forget the Man Booker longlist, Literary Editor Katy Guest offers her alternative picks

The Guest List 2014

Forget the Man Booker longlist, Literary Editor Katy Guest offers her alternative picks
Jokes on Hollywood: 'With comedy film audiences shrinking, it’s time to move on'

Jokes on Hollywood

With comedy film audiences shrinking, it’s time to move on
It's the best of British art... but not all is on display

It's the best of British art... but not all is on display

Voted for by the British public, the artworks on Art Everywhere posters may be the only place where they can be seen
Critic claims 'I was the inspiration for Blanche DuBois'

Critic claims 'I was the inspiration for Blanche DuBois'

Blanche Marvin reveals how Tennessee Williams used her name and an off-the-cuff remark to create an iconic character
Sometimes it's hard to be a literary novelist

Sometimes it's hard to be a literary novelist

Websites offering your ebooks for nothing is only the latest disrespect the modern writer is subjected to, says DJ Taylor
Edinburgh Fringe 2014: The comedy highlights, from Bridget Christie to Jack Dee

Edinburgh Fringe 2014

The comedy highlights, from Bridget Christie to Jack Dee
Dame Jenny Abramsky: 'We have to rethink. If not, museums and parks will close'

Dame Jenny Abramsky: 'We have to rethink. If not, museums and parks will close'

The woman stepping down as chair of the Heritage Lottery Fund is worried