EU In Crisis: Europe is beheaded after night of the long knives

Prodi is the front-runner for presidency

ROMANO PRODI, the former Italian prime minister, and Javier Solana, Nato's secretary-general, emerged as early favourites to succeed Jacques Santer as European Commission president.

As European leaders came under pressure to choose his successor next week, he issued a strong defence of his tenure of office, and one which united MEPs in disbelief.

As jockeying for key posts began, it emerged that Mr Solana's prospects depend on winning the support of the Spanish Prime Minister, Jose Maria Aznar. The two men come from rival parties and personal relations between them are not close.

Mr Prodi has the backing of Massimo D'Alema, his successor as Prime Minister.

The field of candidates to take over from Mr Santer also includes Rudolf Scharping, Germany's Defence Minister, while outside possibilities include Wim Kok and Antonio Guterres, the Dutch and Portuguese Prime Ministers. Both are still in office and might find it difficult to extract themselves from their present posts.

Despite pressure from several countries, including Britain, for a quick resolution of the crisis, the timetable for the replacement of the Santer commission remains unclear.

There is speculation that a temporary candidate may take over from Mr Santer and would then see the Commission through to the end of the year. That might leave the way open for senior figures such as Hans van den Broek, foreign affairs commissioner, or Sir Leon Brittan, Commission vice- president, although his prospects may suffer from the fact Britain is not a member of the single currency.

It is more likely a new president will be selected after an agreement by all 15 EU leaders, and that he or she will get a six-month mandate at first, with the expectation of a five-year term starting in 2000.

That could leave the way open for at least some of the current commissioners to stay on until the end of the year. Germany indicated yesterday that it wishes to see the present regime staying in place as caretakers until the June European elections. But that was opposed by the European Parliament, as MEPs are convinced the administration must be removed before they have to face the voters.

Whatever happens, the shape of the new Commission will be very different, and only a minority of those now in office are likely to return to Brussels. Neil Kinnock, the British transport commissioner, received the Government's backing for a second term of office. Sir Leon is due to step down at the end of December.

The list of those who face the axe includes Edith Cresson, former French prime minister and commissioner for research and education, who was at the centre of the crisis; the Commission vice-president Manuel Marin, who was planning to step down; Anita Gradin, commissioner for financial control; Padraig Flynn, commissioner for employment and social affairs; and Martin Bangemann, the commissioner for industrial affairs.

Mr van den Broek and Christos Papoutsis, the energy commissioner, are expected to bow out at the end of the year. If no substantial figure is chosen, either Sir Leon or Mr van den Broek could be appointed as a stop- gap.

Mr Santer may have sealed his fate and ensured his early departure with a dramatic reaction to the conclusions of the report of a committee of independent experts.

The President of the Commission described himself as "whiter than white". His team of 20 commissioners could not accept the conclusion that it "has to bear responsibility for fraud, irregularities and mismanagement". Ms Cresson poured petrol on the flames by telling reporters she had been "careless", which produced an outcry among MEPs. Alan Donnelly, leader of Labour's 60 MEPs, said Mr Santer was "in denial". The President of the European Parliament, Jose Maria Gil-Robles, also backed the report unambiguously.

Its conclusions argued that political responsibility "cannot be a vague idea, a concept which in practice proves unrealistic". It added: "The studies carried out by the committee have too often revealed a growing reluctance among the members of the hierarchy to acknowledge their responsibility. It is becoming difficult to find anyone who has even the slightest sense of responsibility". Although there was no evidence of a case "where a commissioner was directly and personally involved in fraudulent activities", there were instances where "commissioners or the Commission as a whole bears responsibility for instances of fraud, irregularities or mismanagement".