Magazines: Some lean times ahead

Experts can't agree if the low-carb diet works, says Philippa Kennedy. But health titles feel sure that it has shrunk their readerships

Health titles have been feeling distinctly queasy of late because of the national obsession with the Atkins diet. They have been left battered and bruised by a media frenzy that put the controversial high-protein, quick-fix diet beloved of celebrities at the top of the bestseller lists.

The latest ABC figures for magazines show that the market for women's-health, beauty and dieting titles has slimmed down by an average of 8 per cent. The market leader in the health sector, Top Santé, took an 8.5 per cent dive; Zest and Shape were both down by 8.7 per cent. Slimming recorded a 15 per cent decline year on year.

Top Santé's editor, Marina Gask, says: "People went mad about Atkins because it seemed like the dream-come-true diet, with rapid results. Three million people in this country were on Atkins at its peak. It was all over the papers. I'm sure it had an impact on us, although it wasn't the only thing."

Gask, who took the helm of Emap's flagship health title in September and has been masterminding this month's relaunch, is well aware that health magazines are competing with national newspapers and magazines for the attention of a fickle public obsessed by instant results and an apparent raft of celebrity endorsements. "My feeling is," she says, "the interest in diet is only going to get hotter. Everyone is now covering health, diet, fitness and anti-ageing. Health is a very sexy subject, as you will see if you open any tabloid."

The publisher of Zest, Justine Southall, says: "Many people are getting their diets from celebrity magazines like Closer, which does a diet every week, and from newspapers. It's no coincidence that there has been a drop in our average circulation figures over the past six months when publicity over Atkins was at its height. It has offered a one-stop solution for people. It negated the need to buy a health magazine.

"The cult of celebrity is influencing diets. Jennifer Aniston's name has been associated with Atkins even though there's no real proof that she's on it."

Whether she is or isn't does not seem to matter. The fact that the public thought she was a devotee contributed to media interest in Atkins, according to the research company Romeike Media Intelligence. But, equally, the fuss Catherine Zeta-Jones made over Atkins, when she threatened to sue anyone who said she was on the diet, created just as many column inches in the press.

Romeike did research between April and September last year to track media interest in the light of health warnings, the death of Robert Atkins, book sales and celebrity endorsements. Its purpose was to provide information that would shape PR and marketing campaigns, but the findings help to explain why Atkins has been front-page news for so long.

After analysing 1,029 articles in national and regional newspapers, Romeike concluded that book sales were directly affected by "a complicated mix of celebrity endorsements, statements from health experts and individual stories, including those of journalists". For example, in April, Professor David Barker, a foetal specialist at Southampton University, declared that Atkins was bad for pregnant women and although book sales plummeted, it kept the diet on the news pages. In May, the US-based New England Journal of Medical Research endorsed it, sending sales of the book rocketing and creating more publicity.

Victoria Hatch, senior analyst with Romeike, says: "As a nation we are, without doubt, seduced by celebrity, but in this instance, the opinion of perceived health experts appeared to sway readers far more."

The Atkins roller-coaster was fuelled by industry statements that sales of potatoes, bread and the Slim-Fast range had been hit by the diet. The range of interest was another factor. Debates raged in newspapers and magazines, and among health professionals, media commentators and, of course, celebrities. It all left a dilemma for the health titles. With their reputations for being balanced at risk, they could not simply jump on the Atkins bandwagon. But it would have been mad to ignore it.

Says Gask: "I'm not a nutritionist, so I have to be careful. It would be irresponsible of us not to cover Atkins but we will point out what's good about it, what's bad and what the experts say. We can't promise the Earth, unlike the tabloids, who use this scaremongering style. And they love people who have lost large amounts of weight."

Even the health food retailer Holland & Barrett is stocking Atkins-related foods. Amanda Cochrane, acting editor of H&B's Healthy magazine, says: "There is an interest in high-protein diets. Carbohydrates have taken a knocking. But you can't blame Atkins alone for the dip in sales of the magazines."

Southall is convinced that Atkins has peaked. "The trouble is that these diets are not sustainable in the long run. After six months people go back to their old habits. Atkins suits this period in time when people want everything immediately. And it's worth pointing out yet again that Dr Atkins died weighing 18 stone and obese."

Health titles can console themselves in the knowledge that even the most popular diets go out of fashion - remember Scarsdale, the cabbage soup diet and the F-Plan?

Gask is convinced that the next big thing is life coaching, rather than diet. But already, across the ocean, another dieting Jaws is preparing to pounce. The South Beach diet promises that you will lose 13lb in two weeks without feeling hungry. Sound familiar? It has already topped the New York Times bestseller list. They say it's only a matter of time before it does the same here.