Status quo to survive mid-term poll

US Elections: Local concerns dominated campaign in which Lewinsky and the economy failed to stir strong reactions

AMERICA'S VOTERS delivered their verdict on their politicians yesterday and, despite everything, seemed happy to give them a seal of approval.

All seats in the House of Representatives were contested, with 34 Senate seats and 36 governorships as well as tens of thousands of local officials. The result seemed likely to be little change. The Monica Lewinsky affair, often forecast to dominate the voting, was all but absent.

The public has always cared less about the White House scandals than America's political and chattering classes, though it appeared that a general dislike for politics might have depressed voting levels.

But those who bothered to turn up seemed likely to return most incumbents, in contrast to previous elections where the public took out its anger on the ruling party. The economy is rolling along nicely, with signs of a downturn on the horizon.

Right up to the time the polls closed the Republicans were predicting victory."There's no intrigue - we're going to win an election today," said Newt Gingrich, House Speaker and leader of the Congressional Republicans. He said he expected Republican gains of between six and 30 seats in the House, and up to six seats in the Senate.

"If our team shows up, the team that is for cutting taxes, a stronger defence and winning the war on drugs, we should win the topside of every one of those numbers."

The Republicans have a 55-45 majority in the Senate, and a 228-206 majority in the House (there is one independent). Six seats in the Senate would enable them to stop filibusters, long speeches by senators intended to tie up debate. But they were unlikely to hit that number. In the House, they had expected double digit gains, but that, too, was a fading hope. By comparison, the average loss for the President's party in mid-term elections since the Second World War is 27 in the House and four in the Senate.

Reading the tea leaves about the results will occupy America's commentators for weeks. A small Republican gain, or a Democratic gain, will make it much harder for the Republicans to press ahead convincingly with impeachment proceedings, according to one theory, as it would demonstrate a lack of support. According to another theory, however, they will be even more vengeful. "House Republican leaders will be under fierce pressure from their right not to sell out again," wrote Norman Ornsteain, a respected commentator.

The right wing of the Republicans is angry that Mr Gingrich failed to press its agenda in the last Congress. They are furious that the budget which the Republican leadership accepted did not include all their aspirations, and compromised on others. There may be a leadership challenge to Richard Armey, Mr Gingrich's lieutenant, to impose a more ideologically pure regime.

President Bill Clinton has campaigned hard during the elections, but has concentrated his appearances at press conferences and public events where he has pressed broader messages, and fund-raising events. Initially, some Democrats even resisted presidential visits, fearing they would damage their campaigns, but that resistance evaporated as it became clear the President was still riding high in terms of approval ratings.

About two-thirds of Americans feel the economy is moving in the right direction, and about 60 per cent approve of the way Mr Clinton has handled his job, if not himself.

In particular, the President has appealed to the black community to vote. His support has held up best with black voters, who feel that he has been victimised. Turnout among black voters is one figure that is sure to be scrutinised especially carefully, as turnout was the key to the result.

The election will also give some idea of what might happen in the 2000 Presidential elections. A Democrat victory in the California gubernatorial will be a good omen for their chances, as California is the largest state. Gray Davis, the Democrat contender, was ahead in the polls.

George W Bush, son of the former president, was expected to sweep the polls as Republican Governor in Texas.