EXPLAINER: What the Tuvalu election means for China-Pacific relations

On Friday, the tiny Pacific island nation of Tuvalu heads to the polls in an election that’s being watched from Beijing to Canberra

On Friday, the tiny Pacific island nation of Tuvalu heads to the polls in an election that's being watched from Beijing to Canberra. Voters will choose the members of its 16-seat parliament, setting up negotiations to choose a prime minister.

Elections in tropical Tuvalu typically garner limited international attention, but the increasing influence of China in the region, and Tuvalu's diplomatic ties to the government of Taiwan, has brought added attention to this year’s vote. A proposed security treaty with Australia could also hang in the balance.

Here's an explanation of what's at stake:

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WHERE IS TUVALU AND HOW MANY PEOPLE LIVE THERE?

Tuvalu consists of nine coral atolls in the South Pacific Ocean. It's about half way between Hawaii and Australia.

Tuvalu's low-lying atolls make it particularly vulnerable to global warming, and there are worries that rising sea levels and strengthening storms will make it uninhabitable. Prime Minister Kausea Natano is trying to raise the islands 4 to 5 meters (13 to 16 feet) above sea level through land reclamation.

It has a population of about 11,500, making it one of the smallest nations in the world.

A former British colony, it gained independence in 1978. The British monarch is still the country's head of state.

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WHAT HAPPENS IN A TUVALU ELECTION?

Tuvalu has no political parties, and all candidates run as independents. The top two vote-getters in each of the eight island electorates go to parliament.

Polls open at 8.30am (2030 GMT) on Friday.

Following the counting of votes, which could be finished a few hours after polls close at 4 p.m. (0400 GMT) on Friday, the 16 newly elected members of parliament form factions, with the largest group establishing the government and electing the prime minister.

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WHO ARE THE MAIN CANDIDATES FOR PRIME MINISTER?

The current prime minister, Kausea Natano, is running again, but even if he successfully defends his seat in Funafuti, there’s no guarantee he'll again be the nation’s leader.

Natano’s finance minister, Seve Paeniu, wants to become prime minister and has already secured a seat in the next parliament by running unopposed in the Nukulaelae electorate. Paeniu has begun discussions with other candidates to support his leadership bid.

Opposition leader Enele Sopoaga is also seeking the top job, which he held until losing out to Natano in the leadership wrangling after the 2019 election.

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WHY THE ELECTION MATTERS

Tuvalu is one of only 12 countries that have official diplomatic relations with Taiwan, the self-governing democratic island that China claims as its own territory.

The nearby Pacific nation of Nauru recently switched its allegiance from Taiwan to China shortly after presidential elections in Taiwan.

Under Prime Minister Natano, Tuvalu has maintained strong ties with Taiwan, and Natano made an official visit to Taipei in 2022. He voiced his support for Taiwan in November during the Pacific Islands Forum.

Natano has said that his government rejected an approach from Beijing to form a diplomatic relationship because it wouldn't allow a dual relationship with Taiwan.

Sopoaga, who previously served as Tuvalu’s ambassador to Taiwan, has said that Tuvalu should persist in recognizing Taiwan as a sovereign independent state and a diplomatic ally.

Sopoaga has also said he would reject the migration and security treaty between Tuvalu and Australia signed in November. That treaty, which commits Australia to assist Tuvalu in response to major natural disasters, health pandemics and military aggression, has led to heated debate in Tuvalu’s parliament and has yet to be ratified. The treaty also gives Australia veto power over any security or defense-related agreement Tuvalu wants to make with any other country, including China.

Paeniu has said he wants to review Tuvalu’s relationships with both Taiwan and China to maximize the benefits for Tuvalu.