1993: remember, you read it here first (4): Independent on Sunday writers look ahead to a turbulent year in which they foresee scandal, revelation and controversy in Britain and around the world: Chinese checkers will humble Chris Patten

THE Hong Kong Legislative Council will reject the democracy plans of Chris Patten and pass a weaker version calculated to mollify Peking. Mr Patten will declare himself willing to live with the outcome, but the Chinese leadership will continue to demand a veto on almost every aspect of the running of the colony before 1997.

In mid-year, however, China will have more important concerns: Deng Xiaoping will die a few weeks short of his 89th birthday. Jiang Zemin, having taken over as President from Yang Shangkun at the National People's Congress in March, will succeed Deng, but his position will be weak; by the end of the year he will be struggling against several rivals. The economy will continue to grow regardless.

In Cambodia, the UN will suffer one of its worst humiliations. The most ambitious and expensive peace-keeping operation in its history will ensure that an election is held in May, despite the refusal of the Khmer Rouge to participate and the deaths of several peace-keepers caught in crossfire, but the country will return to civil war as soon as the UN pulls out. The news will be better elsewhere in south-east Asia - the US will restore full diplomatic relations with Vietnam.

The divisions created in India by the demolition of the mosque at Ayodhya will cost the Prime Minister, Narasimha Rao, his job. His Congress (I) party will remain in power, but will have to seek a coalition with left-wing parties to keep out the Hindu chauvinists, the Bharatiya Janata Party. As a result, the country's economic reforms will be put on hold.

Another big political scandal will erupt in Japan, hastening the break-up of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed since 1955. Japan will finally agree to allow rice imports, exposing South Korea to pressure from Gatt negotiators to do the same. This will force President Kim Young Sam to confront rioting rice farmers.