Major poll says 74% of Britons expect a major terrorist attack in 2016

5 charts that show what people think will happen across topics from the futures of Jeremy Corbyn and Donald Trump to expectations over immigration

Three-quarters of Britons think a major terrorist attack on UK soil is likely at some point next year, according to a major poll of the nation’s predictions for 2016.

The figure of 74 per cent is a sharp rise from last year, when only 49 per cent of people surveyed believed a terrorist attack would take place in 2015. The increased fear of terrorism is one of the starkest findings from polling company Ipsos Mori’s research.

Other findings in its poll predict that Jeremy Corbyn will hold on as Labour leader, Donald Trump will disappear from American politics and our nation's sporting hopes will once again be dashed this summer.

In its poll of more than 1,000 Britain’s the market researcher found…

The increased fear of terrorism is the starkest finding. Ipsos MORI’s research also found people expect an escalation of Britain’s involvement in the war in Syria, with 58 per cent ranking it likely that ground troops will be deployed at some point in 2016. 

Findings also showed people have more faith in Jeremy Corbyn’s staying power than might have been expected, with 53 per cent expecting him to still be Labour leader in 12 months, and 41 per cent saying it was unlikely.

In other findings, the Conservatives were predicted to hang on to City Hall at the London Mayoral elections in May. Sadiq Khan, Labour’s candidate, was ranked as likely to win the election by 34 per cent, compared to 45 per cent predicting a victory for Tory rival Zac Goldsmith. 

Despite his strong performance in American polls, 77 per cent said it was unlikely Donald Trump would finish the year as president elect of the United States - with 17 per cent ranking it likely. 

The survey also showed a stark change with regard to predictions on immigration – with 70 per cent predicting a rise in immigration, compared to 47 per cent last year. 

On the economy, only 22 per cent predicted a rise in their own standard of living, against 58 per cent who said it would stay the same and 20 per cent predicting a fall. 

Unemployment was predicted to rise by 36 per cent, while 34 per cent said it would stay the same and 27 per cent predicted a fall.

In sport, 48 per cent believe it is unlikely Great Britain will top its total of 65 medals won at London 2012 at the Rio Olympics in the summer, against 39 per cent who said this was likely. 

There was even less optimism for the fortunes of the football team, with only 17 per cent believing it likely that the England team will reach the finals of the European Championship in the summer. By contrast, 16 per cent told Ipsos MORI it is likely we will find life on Mars this year. 

Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos MORI, said: “With the horrific events in Paris fresh in people’s minds, expectations of a terrorist attack on British soil have risen sharply, with three in four of us fearing the worst for next year.”

The polling company interviewed 1,040 adults about their predictions earlier this month. 

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