Analysis: London at the crossroads as 40,000 motorists await the final realisation of Ken Livingstone's big idea

With one month to go until the capital's congestion charging system comes into effect, what do ordinary drivers need to know?

Congestion charging comes into force in central London next month – bringing with it one of the highest-stake experiments in transport planning ever seen.

The reason for introducing it is simple. London's traffic is at a near-standstill. In some parts of the city, the average speed is only three miles an hour. The roads have become like a supersaturated chemical solution – one "seed", in the form of a crash or a breakdown, can solidify the system in minutes.

The introduction of the charge will not only have a local impact. On its success hinge many other things, some at a global level.

Locally, Ken Livingstone's campaign to be re-elected as Mayor of London next year will begin just as the scheme is in its teething stage, when experts say there will almost certainly be disruptions.

How quickly those are sorted out, and how popular the charge proves, could be crucial to his future. "It's very brave of him to do it at this time," said David Begg, chairman of the Commission for Integrated Transport. "We live in an age when politicians don't always do things that might be electorally unpopular. But it's the only show in town in terms of cutting congestion."

Mr Livingstone also has the small matter of a couple of lawsuits challenging the scheme to deal with – but having seen a challenge by Westminster and Kennington councils thrown out by the High Court last July, he won't be unduly worried about them; Government legislation in 1999 gave him the power to introduce charging, and it was carefully drafted.

Capita, the private-sector company running the scheme, will be hoping its estimates on how many staff will be needed to answer phones, check the number plates of people trying to evade the fare and deal with registrations are accurate.

It will hope to put in a better performance than it did last autumn when it was blamed for the fiasco surrounding checks on teachers and social workers' criminal records; or when it failed to manage housing benefits in London boroughs.

For the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA), which holds the address details, the scheme will be the biggest single test of its database.

Finally, city planners around the world are looking at the scheme with huge interest, according to Stephen Glaister, a member of the board of Transport for London (TfL), the part of the Greater London Authority overseeing its introduction.

"If it goes right then it will open up the possibility of similar schemes all over the world – if it works really well it will be a major part of future transport plans in cities like New York," he said. And if it's a flop? "It will kick the idea of congestion charging into the blue yonder."

He warned that people should expect the early days of the scheme to be confused, principally because Londoners themselves were unclear what was going to happen.

"You shouldn't expect that what happens on day one will be indicative of what it will be like once people have settled into it, after a few weeks," he said. "People only find out how to deal with these things when they absolutely have to."

Despite a £12m advertising campaign being run by Transport for London, only 6,000 of an estimated 40,000 car owners inside the congestion charge area have signed up. But the number is accelerating.

"The publicity might make drivers aware that it's going to happen, but it will take time for them to get familiar with the permits and the new routes," said Professor Glaister.

In that time, the computer models say traffic inside the boundary will decrease by 10 to 15 per cent; traffic in the outside area might actually increase, by 2 per cent. But it is at the boundary that the problems are expected to emerge as drivers make journeys aiming to circle the boundary. Nobody is sure how much the increase there will be.

The charge relies on an inter-connected system in which each element is key. There is no queuing for tickets; cameras at the boundary roads, and inside the area itself photograph the number plates of cars on the roads.

A computer tries to read the plate in the photograph; if it cannot, a human is called on to check it. TfL says that automatic recognition is achieving a 90 per cent success rate in tests. A database of registered vehicle plates is consulted; any plate not there will go into a "holding" list. If the number plate has not been registered with TfL before midnight that day – by text message, internet, by phone or buying a ticket in a shop – then the DVLA is notified, and a ticket will be issued.

The voters' reaction is unknowable – although Mr Livingstone did campaign on a platform of introducing the charge. The Evening Standard, London's evening paper, is broadly against the charge. "That is a big concern to me," said Professor Begg. "I'm confident that from the transport side it will work, but perception can have a big impact.

"The tabloids have made their mind up – but they don't have an alternative strategy. Without this, we'll be at Bangkok levels by 2007, where congestion is presently the world's worst."

He hopes that radio and television will give a fairer picture – and have a greater impact. The likelihood is that the portrayal will focus on the immediate confusion, but ignore it if things settle down.

And after all, the charge is likely to succeed in cutting traffic. Londoners may already be aware of that. A survey yesterday by Barclaycard of 600 London residents headlined on the fact that 40 per cent expected it to make congestion worse, ignoring the counterpoint that 60 per cent polled expect the charge to reduce it.

As for public transport, 85 per cent of people coming to central London at present use the bus or Tube.

Professor Glaister said: "If you take 15 per cent of the cars out, and get 10 per cent of those people – say – coming in by Tube, it's a tiny percentage increase. It's equivalent to one extra person per Tube carriage."

If those numbers are right, Mr Livingstone will just have to hope that person – and the other carriage users – will be happy to vote for him again.

Professor Begg said: "It's going to be an interesting few months." Which sounds like the fabled Chinese expression. Interesting times indeed.

20 ways to beat the system

1 Use someone else's car. Parents of teenagers beware.

2 Register your car abroad. The GLA has powers to fine overseas drivers but may find the costs of pursuing them prohibitive.

3 Have a Blue Badge/Orange Badge (disability). Owners' cars are exempt.

4 Get elected. Be a government minister on official business, being picked up by an official car: these are exempt.

5 Move into town. People living inside the area can get a 90 per cent reduction.

6 Go green. Convert your vehicle to alternative fuel as these are exempt.

7 Two wheels good – four wheels bad. Bicycles and motorcycles are exempt.

8 Do the knowledge. Drivers of licensed black cabs are exempt. Licensed minicab drivers are also exempt.

9 Drive an ambulance, police car or fire engine on emergency service business. They are exempt.

10 Drive a breakdown vehicle registered with the breakdown organisations. They are exempt.

11 Join up. Armed forces vehicles are exempt.

12 Drive a Royal Parks Agency vehicle. They are exempt.

13 Get your own bus. Vehicles with more than nine seats are exempt.

14 Move house but do not update your driving licence or vehicle. This is not legal as you would have to lie to your insurance company. Expect prosecutions and exemplary sentences to follow.

15 Get number plates with a "spider" font that cameras cannot distinguish. These plates are illegal, and suppliers are not allowed to provide them for cars – only for "display". Your car will fail an MOT if it has these.

16 Get a liquid crystal display, which blanks out your number plate as you cross the boundary, and becomes transparent once you're past the camera. The drawback: it's illegal to obscure your number plate intentionally, and there are cameras throughout the charge zone – not just at the edges.

17 Cover your number plate with mud. This is illegal, and the extra police patrols near the charge boundary might pick it up.

18 Skirt around the roads that mark the boundary. Time consuming and could lead to added congestion as others do the same thing.

19 Simply don't drive your car in the charge area between 7am and 6.30pm during the week. Obvious but legal.

20 Take the Tube.