Blair meets Ahern amid hopes of end to IRA violence

Bertie Ahern, the Taoiseach, is to hold private talks with Tony Blair today amid growing optimism that the republican leadership is preparing to make the "real, total, and permanent" renunciation of violence the Prime Minister demanded six weeks ago.

The IRA is gradually moving towards a historic cessation of paramilitary activities including training, intelligence gathering, arms procurement, punishment beatings and contacts with foreign terrorist groups, according to Irish sources close to the peace process.

Revived hopes of a breakthrough in the deadlock, which culminated in suspension of the Northern Ireland Executive on 14 October, follow an intensive campaign in the republican grassroots spearheaded by Martin McGuinness, the Sinn Fein Eduction Minister.

The republican shift could also include an equally momentous decision to endorse and participate in local boards overseeing the new Police Service of Northern Ireland. This would clear the way for the recruitment of police officers from nationalist as well as Unionist areas.

Although the outcome cannot be guaranteed, Mr Ahern is expected to indicate the new mood of optimism in Dublin at the meeting with Mr Blair.

While the move would stop short of IRA disbandment, the shift would amount to the "act of completion" that Mr Blair made clear in his Belfast speech on 18 October was a precondition of restoring the Belfast Executive.

Irish sources indicated some anxiety that David Trimble, the Ulster Unionist leader, would come under pressure from within his own party to reject the republican move as a basis for restoring the Executive and returning to it as First Minister.

Mr Ahern is expected to urge Mr Blair to stick to the timetable of holding assembly elections on 1 May.

Although the Government could insist on calling the elections even if Mr Trimble refused to rejoin the Assembly, the Irish and British governments would vastly prefer it if they went ahead with the full endorsement of Mr Trimble.

Irish sources indicated Mr McGuinness and other republican leaders were hoping to persuade the grassroots to allow an "act of completion" by the end of February, allowing time for the electoral process to be started for a May poll.

The Government has already introduced changes to legislation designed to meet Sinn Fein objections to the PSNI as constituted at present.

In the event of an "act of completion" by republicanism the Government would almost certainly be prepared to introduce further changes including ones – for Unionists highly controversial – to let former para-militaries sit on police boards.

Addressing a London dinner of the Mayo Association last night Mr Ahern said that "significant progress" had been made, adding: "We remain deeply committed to implementing the [Good Friday] Agreement in full and I am confident that we will succeed."