John Curtice: Public sympathy, but limited support

The Government and the Fire Brigades Union are locked in a desperate and dangerous battle for public opinion. On the evidence, neither side can be sure of winning.

There is little doubt that there is considerable public sympathy for the firefighters. Even after the first strike last week, no less than 53 per cent told ICM that they thought the action was justified, while only 38 per cent said it was unjustified. Moreover, support for the firefighters was six points up on what it had been towards the end of last month.

But that does not mean that the public believes the firefighters are justified in striking for their original demand of a 40 per cent wage increase.

When YouGov asked last week whether the firefighters were justified in striking for a 40 per cent claim, it acquired very different figures from ICM. Just 35 per cent said the strike was justified.

Asked what they thought the firefighters should get, only 10 per cent of YouGov's respondents said the strikers should get 40 per cent, 32 per cent thought a 10 per cent rise would be about right, while 31 per cent thought 20 per cent would be acceptable.

So if the Government can convince the public there is indeed 16 per cent available for the firefighters, the public may begin to wonder why they are still on strike.

There is no doubt that the public is concerned about the potential risk the strikes pose to public safety as well as the impact a big rise for the firefighters could have on the rest of the economy.

No less than 71 per cent told YouGov that the firefighters were putting lives at risk unnecessarily, while 55 per cent said that if the firefighters received a reward well above inflation, the economy would be damaged as a result.

Yet the Government has problems too. Polls taken last month when the firefighters first threatened to strike indicated that the public was not satisfied with the way the Government had been handling things, up until then at least.

And now they may ask why John Prescott was unable to get out of bed yesterday morning to give the Government's view on the provisional deal agreed with the employers. They may also ask whether the Government has done enough to avoid the risks posed by the strike. No less than 75 per cent believe the armed forces should cross picket lines to use the more modern red fire engines.

John Curtice is professor of politics, Strathclyde University