UK on course to become Europe's largest economy
GDP to leapfrog Germany around 2030
Thursday 26 December 2013
The UK is on course to become Europe's largest economy within two decades, overtaking France and Germany, according to a new report.
The think tank Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicts the UK's GDP will first move to fifth place ahead of France by 2018 before leapfrogging Germany around 2030.
However, despite being forecast to be the second most successful of the Western economies after the US, it will fall behind the accelerating economies of India and Brazil.
"Germany is forecast to lose its position as the largest Western European economy to the UK around 2030 because of the UK's faster population growth and lesser dependence on the other European economies," the report said.
But added: "If the euro were to break up, Germany's outlook would be much better. A Deutsche Mark-based Germany certainly would not be overtaken by the UK for many years if ever."
Douglas McWilliams, the CEBR's chief executive, told The Daily Telegraph that Britain could become even stronger outside the European Union.
"My instinct is that in the short term, the impact of leaving the EU would undoubtedly be negative," he said.
"My suspicion is that over a 15-year period, it would probably be positive."
It added that a factor driving the UK's move ahead of Germany are the assumption of a falling value for the euro, Germany's falling population and the UK's rising population.
The gap between the two countries will fall from almost £610 billion in 2013 to just £183 billion in five years.
The UK's GDP will grow from more than £1.59 trillion in 2013 to £2.6 trillion in 2028, compared to China which is predicted to be in top position with a GDP of more than £20.5 trillion, ahead of the US with an estimated £19.7 trillion
Japan will fall from its steady position in the global league of third to fourth by 2028, overtaken by India and followed by Brazil, Germany and the UK.
- 1 Man on naked bike ride gets ejected after becoming aroused
- 3 Ann Summers survey reveals the UK's favourite sex position
- 4 Jaden Smith wears gender fluid dress to high school prom with Hunger Games actress
- 5 How much sex should I be having?
Ed Miliband returns to the backbenches but it's all a bit awkward as he tries to avoid eye-contact with fellow Labour MPs
Man on naked bike ride gets ejected after becoming aroused
Charles Kennedy 1959-2015: A gifted, compassionate politician whose career was cut short by the 'demon drink' - latest news
Ayyan Ali: Pakistan's top model now appears in the courtroom rather than on the catwalk
Isis tortures 14-year-old Syrian boy and films it in graphic video for 'propaganda purposes'
Migrants in Kos: Photos show real tragedy after Brits abroad complain of 'awkward' holidays
Thousands of teenage girls enduring debilitating illnesses after routine school cancer vaccination
British tourists complain that impoverished boat migrants are making holidays 'awkward' in Kos
Michael Gove determined to scrap the Human Rights Act – even if Scotland retains it
Threat to scrap Human Rights Act could see UK follow Nazi example, warns UN official
Why this year's general election was the most unfair in Britain's history
£12000 - £16000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: New Full-time, Part-time and Fr...
Negotiable: Recruitment Genius: Due to rapid expansion, this family owned comp...
£26500 per annum: Recruitment Genius: This company is going through a period o...
£30000 - £35000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: The UK's fastest growing, multi...