Revealed: the 29 anti-reform MPs who would lose their seats under the AV system

For 29 MPs, opposition to scrapping the first-past-the-post voting system is a matter of raw political survival, an analysis by
The Independent has found.

Eight Labour MPs and 21 Tories campaigning against the alternative vote would not have been elected in last year's general election had AV been in operation. They include the Tory MP George Eustice, one of the key spokesmen for the No to AV campaign, who won his Camborne and Redruth seat with barely 38 per cent support.

Researchers at Essex University, who analysed every constituency, suggested that the Tories would still have been the largest party at the last election under AV. But the Commons would have looked significantly different: David Cameron's forces would have won overall 23 fewer seats; Labour would have had 10 fewer MPs; and the Liberal Democrats' ranks would have been bolstered by 32 extra MPs.

Among the current crop of Labour MPs, 20 would not have been in the Commons under the system which is being put to the public in Thursday's referendum; eight of those 20 have signed up to the No to AV campaign. Among them is Ian Austin, Gordon Brown's former parliamentary private secretary, who clung on by just 649 votes last year in Dudley North. The researchers at Essex University have calculated that the second-preference votes of Ukip and BNP supporters would have handed it to the Tories.

Emily Thornberry, the Labour MP for Islington South and Finsbury, would have seen her seat fall to her bitter Liberal Democrat local rivals. Jim Dowd, the long-standing MP for Lewisham West and Penge, would also have been ousted by the Liberal Democrats. Other No to AV Labour supporters who would have lost out are:

* Toby Perkins, who beat the Liberal Democrats in Chesterfield by 549 votes.

* Simon Danczuk, who managed to capture Rochdale from the Liberal Democrats despite Gillian Duffy's infamous monstering of Gordon Brown when the prime minister visited the town during the election campaign.

* Ian Murray, who picked up Edinburgh South with less than 35 per cent support, and a majority of just 316.

* Diana Johnson, a former minister, who just managed to beat a Liberal Democrat challenge in Hull North by 641 votes.

* Geraint Davies, whose return to Parliament as MP for Swansea West succeeded by only 504 votes.

For the Tories, in addition to Mr Eustice, 20 current Tory MPs – all of whom favour first past the post – would have lost under AV in 2010. Guto Bebb (Aberconwy), Mary Macleod (Brentford and Isleworth), Anna Soubry (Broxtowe), Matthew Offord (Hendon), Mike Weatherley (Hove), Eric Ollerenshaw (Lancaster & Fleetwood), Mark Spencer (Sherwood) and James Wharton (Stockton South) would have lost their seats to Labour.

Charlotte Leslie (Bristol North West), Jason McCartney (Colne Valley), Andrew Jones (Harrogate & Knaresborough), Glyn Davies (Montgomeryshire), Anne Marie Morris (Newton Abbot), Nicola Blackwood (Oxford West and Abingdon), Rob Wilson (Reading East), Anne Main (St Albans), Sarah Newton (Truro & Falmouth), Richard Harrington (Watford), John Penrose (Weston-super-Mare) and Julian Sturdy (York Outer) would have lost their seats to the Liberal Democrats.

Two other Tories who would have lost their seats have a more ambiguous attitude to reform. Jonathan Evans, the MP for Cardiff North, has previously backed electoral reform but has not intervened in the AV debate. And David Mowat, the MP for Warrington South, said he is "agnostic" on the issue.

Survival instinct kicks in

The 29 'No to AV' MPs who, based on research by Essex University and The Independent, most likely would not have won their seats at the 2010 general election had AV been in operation



Constituency

2010 winner under first-past-the-post

Likely winner under AV

Aberconwy

Gusto Bebb (Con)

Ronald Hughes (Lab)

Brentford and Isleworth

Mary Macleod (Con)

Ann Keen (Lab)

Brixtowe

Anna Soubry (Con)

Nick Palmer (Lab)

Hendon

Matthew Offord (Con)

Andrew Dismore (Lab)

Hove

Mike Weatherley (Con)

Celia Barlow (Lab)

Lancaster and Fleetwood

Eric Ollerenshaw (Con)

Clive Grunsha (Lab)

Sherwood

Mark Spencer (Con)

Emilie Oldknow (Lab)

Stockton South

James Wharton (Con)

Dari Taylor (Lab)

Camborne and Redruth

George Eustice (Con)

Julia Goldsworthy (LD)

Oxford West and Abingdon

Nicola Blackwood (Con)

Evan Harris (LD)

Bristol North West

Charlotte Leslie (Con)

Paul Harrod (LD)

Colne Valley

Jason McCartney (Con)

Nicola Turner (LD)

Harrogate and Knaresborough

Andrew Jones (Con)

Claire Kelley (LD)

Montgomeryshire

Glyn Davies (Con)

Lembit Opik (LD)

Newton Abbot

Anne Marie-Morris (Con)

Richard Younger-Ross (LD)

Reading East

Rob Wilson (Con)

Gareth Epps (LD)

St Albans

Anne Main (Con)

Sandy Walkington (LD)

Truro and Falmouth

Sarah Newton (Con)

Terrye Teverson (LD)

Watford

Richard Harrington (Con)

Sal Brinton (LD)

Weston-super-Mare

John Penrose (Con)

Mike Bell (LD)

York Outer

Julian Sturdy (Con)

Madeline Kirk (LD)

Dudley North

Ian Austin (Lab)

Graeme Brown (Con)

Islington South and Finsbury

Emily Thornberry (Lab)

Bridget Fox (LD)

Lewisham West and Penge

Jim Dowd (Lab)

Alex Feakes (LD)

Chesterfield

Tony Perkins (Lab)

Paul Holmes (LD)

Rochdale

Simon Danczuk (Lab)

Paul Rowen (LD)

Edinburgh South

Ian Murray (Lab)

Fred Mackintosh (LD)

Hull North

Diana Johnson (Lab)

Denis Healy (LD)

Swansea West

Geraint Davies (Lab)

Peter May (LD)











News
peopleHowards' Way actress, and former mistress of Jeffrey Archer, was 60
Sport
Romelu Lukaku puts pen to paper
sport
News
Robyn Lawley
people
Arts and Entertainment
Unhappy days: Resistance spy turned Nobel prize winner Samuel Beckett
books
PROMOTED VIDEO
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
News
ebookA unique anthology of reporting and analysis of a crucial period of history
News
people
Life and Style
Troy Baker and Ashley Johnson voice the show’s heroes
gamingOnce stilted and melodramatic, Hollywood is giving acting in video games a makeover
News
i100
Life and Style
Phones will be able to monitor your health, from blood pressure to heart rate, and even book a doctor’s appointment for you
techCould our smartphones soon be diagnosing diseases via Health Kit and Google Fit?
News
people
Extras
indybest
Travel
Ryan taming: the Celtic Tiger carrier has been trying to improve its image
travelRyanair has turned on the 'charm offensive' but can we learn to love the cut-price carrier again?
Sport
Usain Bolt confirms he will run in both the heats and the finals of the men's relay at the Commonwealth Games
commonwealth games
Life and Style
Slim pickings: Spanx premium denim collection
fashionBillionaire founder of Spanx launches range of jeans that offers 'thigh-trimming construction'
News
Sabina Altynbekova has said she wants to be famous for playing volleyball, not her looks
people
News
i100
Life and Style
tech'World's first man-made leaves' could use photosynthesis to help astronauts breathe
Independent
Travel Shop
the manor
Up to 70% off luxury travel
on city breaks Find out more
santorini
Up to 70% off luxury travel
on chic beach resorts Find out more
sardina foodie
Up to 70% off luxury travel
on country retreats Find out more
Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

SAP Project Manager

competitive: Progressive Recruitment: SAP PROJECT MANAGER - 3 MONTHS - BERKSHI...

SAP Project Manager

competitive: Progressive Recruitment: SAP PROJECT MANAGER - 3 MONTHS - BERKSHI...

Senior Investment Accounting Change Manager

£600 - £700 per day + competitive: Orgtel: Senior Investment Accounting Change...

Microsoft Dynamics AX Functional Consultant

£65000 - £75000 per annum + benefits: Progressive Recruitment: A rare opportun...

Day In a Page

Save the tiger: The day America’s love of backyard tigers led to a horrific bloodbath

The day America’s love of backyard tigers led to a horrific bloodbath

With only six per cent of the US population of these amazing big cats held in zoos, the Zanesville incident in 2011 was inevitable
Samuel Beckett's biographer reveals secrets of the writer's time as a French Resistance spy

How Samuel Beckett became a French Resistance spy

As this year's Samuel Beckett festival opens in Enniskillen, James Knowlson, recalls how the Irish writer risked his life for liberty and narrowly escaped capture by the Gestapo
We will remember them: relatives still honour those who fought in the Great War

We will remember them

Relatives still honour those who fought in the Great War
Star Wars Episode VII is being shot on film - and now Kodak is launching a last-ditch bid to keep celluloid alive

Kodak's last-ditch bid to keep celluloid alive

Director J J Abrams and a few digital refuseniks shoot movies on film. Simon Usborne wonders what the fuss is about
Once stilted and melodramatic, Hollywood is giving acting in video games a makeover

Acting in video games gets a makeover

David Crookes meets two of the genre's most popular voices
Could our smartphones soon be diagnosing diseases via Health Kit and Google Fit?

Could smartphones soon be diagnosing diseases?

Health Kit and Google Fit have been described as "the beginning of a health revolution"
Ryanair has turned on the 'charm offensive' but can we learn to love the cut-price carrier again?

Can we learn to love Ryanair again?

Four recent travellers give their verdicts on the carrier's improved customer service
Billionaire founder of Spanx launches range of jeans that offers

Spanx launches range of jeans

The jeans come in two styles, multiple cuts and three washes and will go on sale in the UK in October
10 best over-ear headphones

Aural pleasure: 10 best over-ear headphones

Listen to your favourite tracks with this selection, offering everything from lambskin earmuffs to stainless steel
Commonwealth Games 2014: David Millar ready to serve up gold for his beloved Scotland in the end

Commonwealth Games

David Millar ready to serve up gold for his beloved Scotland in the end
UCI Mountain Bike World Cup 2014: Downhill all the way to the top for the Atherton siblings

UCI Mountain Bike World Cup

Downhill all the way to the top for the Atherton siblings
Save the tiger: The animals bred for bones on China’s tiger farms

The animals bred for bones on China’s tiger farms

The big cats kept in captivity to perform for paying audiences and then, when dead, their bodies used to fortify wine
A former custard factory, a Midlands bog and a Leeds cemetery all included in top 50 hidden spots in the UK

A former custard factory, a Midlands bog and a Leeds cemetery

Introducing the top 50 hidden spots in Britain
Ebola epidemic: Plagued by fear

Ebola epidemic: Plagued by fear

How a disease that has claimed fewer than 2,000 victims in its history has earned a place in the darkest corner of the public's imagination
Chris Pratt: From 'Parks and Recreation' to 'Guardians of the Galaxy'

From 'Parks and Recreation' to 'Guardians of the Galaxy'

He was homeless in Hawaii when he got his big break. Now the comic actor Chris Pratt is Hollywood's new favourite action star