Blair more isolated than ever, but determined to remain 'resolute'

Tony Blair looked dangerously isolated within the United Nations, the European Union and most of all the Labour Party last night after Hans Blix failed to deliver unequivocal backing for a countdown to war with Iraq.

The Prime Minister had been desperately hoping that Mr Blix would bolster his political position by building on the highly critical tone of his last report to the UN Security Council in January.

After a private meeting with the chief weapons inspector at Downing Street last week, Mr Blair had been left with the impression that Mr Blix was "on board", as one insider put it.

And when the former Swedish diplomat said last weekend that genuine proactive Iraqi compliance mattered more than more time or more inspectors, government aides were delighted.

But Mr Blix's pointed criticism yesterday of the United States' own evidence, together with warm applause for the French UN ambassador at the Security Council, would have come as a huge disappointment to the Prime Minister.

With some cabinet ministers warning privately that the crisis could break Mr Blair's premiership, anger within Labour was palpable yesterday as the party gathered for its spring conference in Glasgow.

Downing Street knows that continuing to support the White House will be an extremely risky strategy, given the strong anti-Bush sentiment among the party and the wider British public alike. The problem for Mr Blair is stark. He knows that he faces possible cabinet resignations, as well as a lack of crucial public support for troops in action, without the cover of a second UN resolution.

But if the US President listens to the more hawkish members of his administration, many of whom have no time for a fresh mandate for war, such a nightmare scenario will materialise.

Having invested so much time and energy in the UN route, the Prime Minister will be judged to have failed in his principle role of a moderating influence on Washington.

Yesterday's Blix report, backed by a strong French threat of the use of its veto, certainly makes a resolution less likely, although Foreign Office sources were still hopeful that agreement could be found.

Downing Street was defiant last night, with senior sources claiming that "the mood is as resolute as ever". One official said: "When you strip it all away, the pretence of co-operation and the fact that real weapons are not being disarmed shows what's going on.

"Any amount of commissions, inspectors, Mirage jets and drones can be put in place but they don't change the central argument. If [Saddam Hussein] doesn't want to co-operate, he won't.

"There is a real danger the measures are designed to string the process out and sap the will of the UN."

Mr Blair will underline his own determination to face down his party when he delivers his speech to delegates at the spring conference. He will condemn President Saddam for presiding over a "humanitarian crisis".

An unprecedented security operation was organised at the Glasgow conference centre yesterday and an angry argument erupted at one point as security guards attempted to remove a sash bearing the word "peace" from one delegate. Inside the hall, ministers attempted to calm the jitters of delegates with a series of pleas for the party to rally round its leader. Gordon Brown, the Chancellor, said: "In the difficult decisions he has to make for our country we should all give Tony Blair, the leader of our party, our full support as he seeks to find an international way forward for the necessary disarmament of Saddam Hussein.'

John Reid, the Labour Party chairman, told the conference: "If you do have concerns you wish to raise on the issue, I hope we can discuss them in a fraternal manner.

"But it is also the duty of leaders to lead, to say it as they see it, to be honest with the party and with the people, especially when they believe this country and this world to be in peril. We can't avoid these difficult decisions, precisely because we have been chosen to lead the people of this country."

Mr Blair's task at the emergency summit of EU leaders on Monday will now undoubtedly be even harder after France and Germany appeared to have gained the upper hand.

The Prime Minister has already laid the ground for the stormy meeting with his fellow leaders by issuing a toughly worded letter calling on them to "uphold the authority of the Security Council".

But Mr Blix's clear adoption of key sections of the Franco-German peace plan that caused so much anger in London is certain to be used against Mr Blair.

Despite a tough anti-war speech by Gerhard Schröder on Thursday, Mr Blair rang the German Chancellor to discuss the issue. But he has not talked to Jacques Chirac, the French President, for a fortnight.