Brexit: Remain would win new referendum by eight points, poll suggests

Survey's conclusions drawn from responses of some 20,000 people

Remain would win a new Brexit poll by eight points with 54 per cent voting to stay in the EU and 46 per cent opting to leave, according to analysis of one of the largest surveys carried out on the issue.

Some 20,000 people were questioned in a Survation poll for Channel 4 which estimated 105 local authority areas that voted Leave in 2016 would now be carried by the Remain side.

Channel 4 said a multi-level modelling technique, which successfully predicted the 2017 general election result, had been used in the exercise.

In a no deal scenario, a majority of voters would back staying in the EU, at least temporarily, according to the poll.

The survey found that in a no deal situation 35 per cent believe Britain should remain in the EU, while 19 per cent would want to delay leaving to allow more time for talks, and 36 per cent would wish to quit the bloc.

Asked how they would vote if the government secured a deal and it was put to the people, 33 per cent said they would reject it, 26 per cent accept it, 34 per cent did not know, and 7 per cent indicated they would not vote.

Justice Secretary David Gauke told the Channel 4 programme – Brexit: What the Nation Really Thinks – which revealed the results: “If we leave on no deal terms there’s is no good shying away, it will be very bad for us economically.

“If we can get a good deal, and that means removing all the frictions. The Chequers-type deal, as I say, if we don’t have friction with trade, then, economically, I don’t think it’s going to make a particular big difference one way or the other.”

The modelling technique showed that support for leaving the EU has fallen most dramatically in the local authorities areas that saw the highest leave vote shares in 2016.

Some 43 per cent said they would support a second referendum that was a binary choice between a deal and staying in, with 37 per cent opposing a vote on those terms.

However, while it was backed by 63 per cent of people who voted Remain, it was backed by just 20 per cent of Leave voters.

Press Association