By-elections analysis says Labour set for major county gains

 

Labour looks set for sweeping seat gains in next Thursday's English county and unitary authority polls, the Press Association's council by-elections analysis suggests today.

A calculation based on 13 comparable contests over April suggests a projected 7 per cent nationwide lead for the party over the Tories.

This is exactly the same as the figure in a BBC survey of last year's main council polls.

However it compares with a 15 per cent Labour deficit in 2009 when most of the seats up for election next week were last fought.

It would represent an 11 per cent net swing to the party since then from the Conservatives.

A calculation based on 10 wards fought by all three major parties gives a line-up of: Lab 38.2 per cent, C 30.9 per cent, Lib Dem 16.5 per cent.

There were no seat gains or losses in this week's four by-elections:

Cheshire East Council - Macclesfield Hurdsfield: Lab 341, Lib Dem 239, C 168, Ukip 132, Green 48. (May 2011 - Lab 526, Lib Dem 302, C 300). Lab hold. Swing 4.4 per cent Lab to Lib Dem.

Newcastle-upon-Tyne City - Castle: Lib Dem 1165, Lab 1043, Newcastle First 215, C 194, Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts 47. (May 2012 - Lib Dem 1432, Lab 991, Newcastle First 229, C 217). Lib Dem hold. Swing 5.4 per cent Lib Dem to Lab.

Newcastle-upon-Tyne City - South Heaton: Lab 798, Green 205, Lib Dem 114, Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts 69, C 52, Newcastle First 44, Ind 22. (May 2012 - Lab 1188, Green 210, Lib Dem 158, C 81, Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts 74). Lab hold. Swing 5.8 per cent Lab to Green.

Rochdale Borough - Norden: C 1081, Lab 627, Lib Dem 246, National Front 156. (May 2012 - C 1624, Lab 604, Lib Dem 175). C hold. Swing 10.5 per cent C to Lab.

PA

Start your day with The Independent, sign up for daily news emails
PROMOTED VIDEO
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
ebooks
ebooksA year of political gossip, levity and intrigue from the sharpest pen in Westminster
2015 General Election
May2015

Poll of Polls

Latest stories from i100
Have you tried new the Independent Digital Edition apps?
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

Recruitment Genius: Magento Front End Web Developer

£25000 - £35000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: A Front End Web Developer is re...

Investigo: management accountant

£250 - £300 per day: Investigo: Growing international marketing business requi...

Recruitment Genius: ORM / Online Reputational Consultant

£18000 - £22000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: An ORM Consultant is required t...

Recruitment Genius: Facilities Manager

£21000 - £25000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: This leading provider of educat...

Day In a Page

Greece elections: In times like these, the EU has far more dangerous adversaries than Syriza

Greece elections

In times like these, the EU has far more dangerous adversaries than Syriza, says Patrick Cockburn
Holocaust Memorial Day: Nazi victims remembered as spectre of prejudice reappears

Holocaust Memorial Day

Nazi victims remembered as spectre of prejudice reappears over Europe
Fortitude and the Arctic attraction: Our fascination with the last great wilderness

Magnetic north

The Arctic has always exerted a pull, from Greek myth to new thriller Fortitude. Gerard Gilbert considers what's behind our fascination with the last great wilderness
Homeless Veterans appeal: Homeless in Wales can find inspiration from Daniel’s story

Homeless Veterans appeal

Homeless in Wales can find inspiration from Daniel’s story
Front National family feud? Marine Le Pen and her relatives clash over French far-right party's response to Paris terror attacks

Front National family feud?

Marine Le Pen and her relatives clash over French far-right party's response to Paris terror attacks
Pot of gold: tasting the world’s most expensive tea

Pot of gold

Tasting the world’s most expensive tea
10 best wildlife-watching experiences: From hen harriers to porpoises

From hen harriers to porpoises: 10 best wildlife-watching experiences

While many of Britain's birds have flown south for the winter, it's still a great time to get outside for a spot of twitching
Nick Easter: 'I don’t want just to hold tackle bags, I want to be out there'

'I don’t want just to hold tackle bags, I want to be out there'

Nick Easter targeting World Cup place after England recall
DSK, Dodo the Pimp, and the Carlton Hotel

The inside track on France's trial of the year

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Dodo the Pimp, and the Carlton Hotel:
As provocative now as they ever were

Sarah Kane season

Why her plays are as provocative now as when they were written
Murder of Japanese hostage has grim echoes of a killing in Iraq 11 years ago

Murder of Japanese hostage has grim echoes of another killing

Japanese mood was against what was seen as irresponsible trips to a vicious war zone
Syria crisis: Celebrities call on David Cameron to take more refugees as one young mother tells of torture by Assad regime

Celebrities call on David Cameron to take more Syrian refugees

One young mother tells of torture by Assad regime
The enemy within: People who hear voices in their heads are being encouraged to talk back – with promising results

The enemy within

People who hear voices in their heads are being encouraged to talk back
'In Auschwitz you got used to anything'

'In Auschwitz you got used to anything'

Survivors of the Nazi concentration camp remember its horror, 70 years on
Autumn/winter menswear 2015: The uniforms that make up modern life come to the fore

Autumn/winter menswear 2015

The uniforms that make up modern life come to the fore