General election 2015: Labour will 'draw' with the Conservatives for vote share, poll predicts

A new poll has put only 0.1% between the two largest parties for 7 May vote

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Indy Politics

Labour will draw with the Conservatives for the number of votes received at next month’s general election, according to a new poll.

An ICM Wisdom Index survey conducted for The Telegraph put the Tories just a tenth of percentage point ahead of Ed Miliband’s party – both on 32 per cent.

If that were a true reflection of voter intention, the result would still heavily depend on where ballots were cast as the result depends solely on the number of Parliamentary seats won.

The figures suggest that Labour and the Tories are still struggling to get ahead, with less than four weeks left until the election.

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Prime Minister David Cameron on the campaign trail at Dawlish in Devon

But the floundering Liberal Democrats could remain the third largest party in the Commons according to the poll of 2,000 voters, which put them ahead of Ukip after a surge in recent weeks.

Behind-the-scenes talks have already started to sound out coalition possibilities in the ever more likely event of another hung Parliament.

Andrew Hawkins, the chairman of ComRes, said his company’s polling data still suggests that outcome.

“The underlying data suggests that things are moving at a tectonic rate - very, very slowly - in the Tories’ favour,” he told The Independent.

“I don't think it will be enough to win a majority – it;s just not going to happen.

“It's about as likely as Nigel Farage crossing the floor to join the SNP.”

Nick Clegg yesterday claimed Mr Cameron would he “held to ransom” by Ukip and “swivel-eyed” right-wing Conservative MPs if he forms a minority government.

The Prime Minister has not ruled out a post-election pact with Ukip and Nigel Farage said his party would back the Tories in exchange for an in-out EU referendum.

Amid speculation over a possible deal between Labour and the Scottish National Party, Mr Miliband emphatically ruled out a coalition last month.

Opposing parties pointed out that he stopped short of ruling out any other pact with the nationalists.

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First Minister Nicola Sturgeon did well in the leaders' debate but the SNP's policies are far removed from the Westminster parties

A “poll of polls” for The Independent showed Labour ahead on 34 points to the Conservatives’ 32, with the rest of the competition lagging far behind on Saturday.

Ukip was on 15 points, ahead of the Liberal Democrats on nine and the Green Party on four.

The Independent has got together with May2015.com to produce a poll of polls that produces the most up-to-date data in as close to real time as possible.

Click the buttons below to explore how the main parties' fortunes have changed:

All data, polls and graphics are courtesy of May2015.com. Click through for daily analysis, in-depth features and all the data you need. (All historical data used is provided by UK Polling Report)

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