General Election 2015: The 'kingmaker seats' that will decide who becomes Prime Minister

A study has highlighted 12 seats whose results will indicate the makeup of a hung parliament

David Cameron on the campaign trail (AFP/Getty Images)

Forget Worcester Woman or Mondeo Man, the classic swing voter courted so assiduously by the parties at previous elections. The UK is changing so fast that a diverse new group of “kingmaker seats” will decide whether David Cameron or Ed Miliband is Prime Minister next month.

Instead of seeking out a mythical middle England voter, a new study suggests that politicians need to broaden their appeal if they are to capture the country’s new bellwether seats. British Future, an independent think tank specialising in identity, integration and migration, has crunched the numbers and found 12 “kingmaker” constituencies where the result will tell us who will be the largest party in the hung parliament that looks inevitable.

The seats are both urban and rural; in the north and the south; populated by large numbers of young and old; by socially conservative and liberal voters and are both white and diverse. Five of the 12 weather vane seats are among the most ethnically-diverse in the country, according to the study. They include the pivotal “kingmaker” seat of Ealing Central and Acton in London, where Angie Bray is defending the seat she gained for the Conservatives from Labour in 2010, which has 36,745 black and ethnic minority voters.

British Future concludes that the parties need to widen their horizons beyond their traditional focus on a typical middle England voter. “A governing party needs to find common ground between the voters of Harrow East, where over a quarter of voters are Hindu, and 97 per cent white Cannock Chase, where Ukip is polling a third of the vote,” says its report.

The think tank argues that the politics and the demographics have moved on more than the parties realise as they search for today’s Worcester Woman and Mondeo Man. Indeed, it believes the relentless focus on a typical centre ground voter contributed to voter disengagement.

“It meant that significant swathes of different voters felt that the parties were ignoring them. From Old Labour and traditional Conservatives, affluent voters in the Tory shires to ethnic minorities in the big cities, many voters sensed that the political parties were not competing for their votes because of their laser-like focus on the median voter,” says the report. “It felt that politics was taking them for granted - because the logic of electoral competition meant that this was largely true.”

Dartford: No longer the 'kingmaker' (Getty Images)

According to British Future, the politics of 2015 are more complex. “Each party certainly still needs to compete for the centre-ground…But the challenge of 2015 and 2020 and beyond is that any successful political leader will have to do more than one thing at once. The shifting political centre-ground means that a wider range of voters than a generation ago might find themselves being courted by the political parties – perhaps better representing the country they are seeking to govern.”

The 12 “kingmaker” seats were selected after British Future studied constituency polling by Lord Ashcroft, the Tories’ former deputy chairman, and bookmakers’ odds offered by Ladbrokes.

Luton South was traditionally the bellwether seat because no party governed Britain since 1951 without winning it. But Labour broke the spell in 2010 by holding a constituency which is much more ethnically diverse than it years ago.

Dartford inherited the label of the “kingmaker” seat in 2010 as the only one to vote for every winning party since 1964. But after social, economic and demographic change, it now looks like a safe Tory bet and is not on Labour’s radar as a likely gain.

Kingmaker seats: The key ethnically diverse swing voters

STOCKTON SOUTH

Rare Tory seat in North East has elected MP from the governing party in last six elections. CON: 39. LAB: 44

KEIGHLEY

Yorkshire Moors seat has sizeable Pakistani Muslim community. CON: 31. LAB: 37

WIRRAL WEST

Esther McVey, Employment Minister and rising Tory star, is trying to retain Merseyside seat which is 95 per cent white British. CON: 37. LAB: 42

CITY OF CHESTER

Often held by Tories but now on Labour’s hitlist; 96 per cent white British. CON: 34. LAB: 45

CANNOCK CHASE

Saw huge 14 per cent swing to the Tories in 2010 but Ukip’s rise has made it a three-way marginal; 97 per cent white British. CON: 27. LAB: 32

NUNEATON

Expected to be first marginal seat to declare on election night. CON: 34. LAB: 39

NORTHAMPTON NORTH

Voted for winning party at every general election since 1974; now has almost 10,000 ethnic minority voters. CON: 31. LAB: 35

BRIGHTON KEMPTOWN

Won by winning party at every election since 1979. Believed to have most gay voters in country. CON: 33. LAB: 37

IPSWICH

Tight Con-Lab race expected in seat gained by Tories in 2010; one third of voters are under 34. CON: 31. LAB: 38

CROYDON CENTRAL

Fifth most ethnically diverse Tory-held seat with more than 18,000 black voters and over 10,000 Asians. CON: 37. LAB: 41

EALING CENTRAL AND ACTON

Sixth most ethnically diverse Tory-held constituency with 11,000 black voters and 15,000 British Asians. CON: 34. LAB: 40

HARROW EAST

The only Conservative-held seat where most voters are from ethnic minorities. CON: 39. LAB: 43

Constituency ratings given are based on local polls conducted by Lord Ashcroft in past six months

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