George Osborne's botched Budget sends Conservative ratings to a new low

The Independent's 'poll of polls' gives Labour its biggest lead since February last year

The Conservative Party has been hit by a backlash from voters after last month's Budget and is less popular now than at any point since taking office, according to the latest "poll of polls" for The Independent.

It puts the Tories' level of support at its lowest since the 2010 election, while Labour's six-point lead is higher that at any time since February last year.

George Osborne appears to have sparked a decline in Tory fortunes by combining a cut in the 50p top rate of tax with a so-called "granny tax" for pensioners. Senior Tory MPs have protested to David Cameron that the two measures, while justified, should not have been announced in the same package. "The communications around the Budget were dreadful," one said.

The Conservatives may also have angered the public by sparking panic buying at the petrol pumps ahead of threatened strikes by tanker drivers.

"March was very much a month of two halves," said John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, who compiles the monthly weighted average of surveys conducted by ComRes, ICM, YouGov and Populus. In their polls before the Budget, Labour averaged 39 per cent and the Tories 37 per cent, but in their most recent surveys, Labour is up to 40 per cent, the Tories down to 34 per cent and the Lib Dems unchanged on 11 per cent.

Overall figures for March show Labour on 40 per cent, the Tories on 36 per cent and the Lib Dems on 11 per cent, enough to give Labour an overall majority of 16 in a general election fought on the proposed new constituency boundaries. Prof Curtice said: "Perhaps most disturbingly for the Tories, there are signs that their and the Government's reputation for competence have taken a knock."

There are signs of a decline in Mr Cameron's personal ratings; in the number of people who believe the Coalition Government is handling the economy well; those who have confidence in Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne and who think the Tories are capable and competent. However, there is little evidence of any advance in Labour's reputation. Ed Miliband is still less highly regarded than Mr Cameron and his standing is only marginally better than a month ago. Voters still think that the Tories can handle the economy better than Labour would.

"Labour's own reputation for general competence continues to lag behind the Tories' – and, in fact, also fell away at the end of the month, perhaps because of the adverse publicity generated by the Bradford West by-election result," said Prof Curtice. There is one positive sign for Mr Miliband: although fewer people blame the Coalition than Labour for the need to make public spending cuts, the proportion blaming the Coalition has crept up to a new record high of 28 per cent. The proportion blaming Labour slipped to a record low of 35 per cent, so the gap is closing.

Prof Curtice concluded: "The end of March witnessed an unwelcome political gale for the Conservatives. For the first time since the formation of the Coalition their competence and ability (as opposed to that of their Lib Dem partners) seems to have been called into question in the minds of the electorate. But perhaps their biggest reason for optimism is that Labour's poll lead still seems to be founded far more on discontent with the Government than any enthusiasm for the party as a potential alternative."

Yesterday Mr Miliband admitted that the Government's failure to bring about change had not translated into a boost for Labour. Insisting that his party was embarking on "real, deep, genuine change" to reconnect with disenchanted voters, he said: "People turning away from an unpopular government doesn't automatically mean they turn to Labour.... It certainly didn't turn out that way in Bradford West two weeks ago. The uncomfortable truth for Labour is that people turned to a protest party rather than to us."

Last night, the Labour leader made an unannounced visit to Bradford to keep his promise to learn from his party's surprise by-election defeat by George Galloway, leader of the Respect Party. "The fourth party who says 'a plague on all your houses' is an issue we've got to confront," said Mr Miliband.

Independent Comment
blog comments powered by Disqus
Top stories
News in pictures
World news in pictures
UK news in pictures
UK news in pictures
More stories
       
Independent
Travel Shop
India and Shimla
14 nights from only £1899pp Find out more
Prague city break
Three nights from £199pp Find out more
4* Soreda hotel break, Malta
Seven nights all-inclusive from £399pp Find out more
Independent Dating
and  

By clicking 'Search' you
are agreeing to our
Terms of Use.

iJobs Job Widget
iJobs General

Assistant Headteacher

negotiable: Randstad Education Manchester: Assistant Headteacher required urge...

Primary Teacher

Negotiable: Randstad Education Cardiff: Here at Randstad Education Cardiff we ...

Secondary Teacher

Negotiable: Randstad Education Cardiff: Secondary School Teachers & NQTs Requi...

Fluent Welsh speaking educational support professional

Negotiable: Randstad Education Cardiff: Fluent Welsh speaking educational supp...

Day In a Page

Watch out Watford: Here comes the secretive Bilderberg Group

Watch out Watford: Here comes the secretive Bilderberg Group

A meeting of global power brokers in a Hertfordshire hotel is exciting conspiracy theorists, but what are they really about?
'The ultimate all-in-one home entertainment system': Microsoft finally unveils its Xbox ONE console

'The ultimate all-in-one home entertainment system'

Microsoft finally unveils its Xbox ONE console
Plenty of Fish dating site founder pulls 'Intimate Encounters' option to ward off sleazy men

Plenty of sleaze

Dating website pulls intimate 'hook-up' section to curb harassment
Inferno author Dan Brown 'honoured' to be invited to join the Freemasons

The Freemasons’ Code

Dan Brown reveals the message that told him door to the lodge is open
Not secure any more: G4S boss heads for exit at last

Not secure any more: G4S boss heads for exit at last

Nick Buckles survived the Olympics débâcle and a £5bn bid fiasco but a profit warning finally triggered his downfall
How to say ‘I’m a sellout’: Tumblr’s David Karp’s message of reassurance to his staff sounded very familiar

How to say ‘I’m a sellout’

Tumblr’s David Karp’s message of reassurance to his staff sounded very familiar
Why clubs are keen to take a stand

Why clubs are keen to take a stand

There's a real desire around the grounds for safe standing. But will the authorities listen?
In the end the fans decided Tony Pulis had made a pig's ear of the job at Stoke City

In the end the fans decided Tony Pulis had made a pig's ear of the job at Stoke City

Disillusion with a siege mentality and negative playing style made change inevitable
James Lawton: The James Hunt I knew is the subject of a new F1 movie

James Lawton: The James Hunt I knew is the subject of a new F1 movie

British driver was fascinating man whose epic duel with Niki Lauda in 1976 was typical of an era of glamour and glory – but also the ever-present threat of death
Stuart Hogg: Ready to climb his own Everest

Stuart Hogg: Ready to climb his own Everest

Lions' cub, 20, joins long line of players from Scottish borders club Hawick given opportunity to make his mark at highest level
Carl Froch handed rare chance of revenge with dream rematch

Steve Bunce on Boxing

Carl Froch handed rare chance of revenge with dream rematch against Mikel Kessler
'There is a battle going on inside us that is never discussed'

Masculinity in crisis?

'There is a battle going on inside us that is never discussed'
Have US shock jocks gone too far?

Have US shock jocks gone too far?

An incendiary remark from Rush Limbaugh may be the beginning of the end for outspoken right-wing US broadcasters
The ‘Beverly Hills’ of Surrey pays more income tax than big cities of the North

The ‘Beverly Hills’ of Surrey

Elmbridge pays more income tax than big cities of the North
Heavenly Bodies

Heavenly Bodies

Michael Landy's artistic marriage made in heaven... and hell