John Curtice: Mid-term loss for the Tories has proved Ukip’s gain
The principal electoral development of 2012 was the advent of mid-term blues for the Conservatives. The party began the year well, with a narrow lead over Labour, one secured the previous month thanks to David Cameron’s European veto.
But the party’s support fell below 35 per cent in the spring – and has failed to recover. The timing of the drop suggests it was occasioned by the many hiccups and rethinks engendered by the March Budget, together with a few other ministerial accidents.
Labour has undoubtedly profited to some degree from the Conservatives’ misfortunes. The party has been consistently at 40 per cent or more since March. Even so, given the party had already been at 40 per cent or more throughout the period (except for one month) from Dec 2010 to July 2011, its improvement could not be considered a major further advance.
The party that appears to have profited at least as much is Ukip. It began the year at no more than the (record) 3 per cent level that it secured in the 2010 election. Thereafter, Ukip’s rating rose as Tory support fell, while most recently it has been boosted by the favourable publicity generated by its performances in the PCC elections and the Crosby and Rotherham by-elections - much as by-election successes once helped the Liberal Democrats.
For them, 2012 was a year of continuing unpopularity. The party faces the same difficult question as 12 months ago, which is what can it possibly do to get itself out of its electoral pickle before 2015?
John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University.
- 1 VMAs 2015: Was Nicki Minaj and Miley Cyrus' awkward acceptance put-down real or staged?
- 2 If you're not already angry about the migrant crisis, here's a history lesson to remind you why you really should be
- 3 The nine most warmongering countries in the world revealed
- 4 Rules on 5p plastic bags likely to lead to arguments at the check-out
- 5 Blood Moon and Supermoon: September to bring brightest – and dimmest – full Moon of the year on same night
VMAs 2015: Was Nicki Minaj and Miley Cyrus' awkward acceptance put-down real or staged?
Bank Holiday Monday opening times: Are Tesco, Asda and other supermarkets open today?
Rules on 5p plastic bags likely to lead to arguments at the check-out
The nine most warmongering countries in the world revealed
VMAs 2015: Kanye West runs for president, Nicki Minaj calls out Miley Cyrus and the list of winners in full
Climate change: 2015 will be the hottest year on record 'by a mile', experts say
'Women only' train carriages: Jeremy Corbyn unveils radical move to tackle public harassment
Black holes are a passage to another universe, says Stephen Hawking
Tony Blair attacks Jeremy Corbyn's 'Alice In Wonderland' politics
Theresa May says migrants should be banned from entering the UK unless they have jobs lined up
Iain Duncan Smith 'should resign over disability benefit death figures', says Jeremy Corbyn
£35000 - £45000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: You will be working with a 8 st...
£8000 - £12000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: A unique opportunity has arisen ...
Negotiable: Recruitment Genius: An exceptional opportunity has arisen for a pa...
£18000 - £20000 per annum: Recruitment Genius: This provider of designer kitch...