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Labour refuses to rule out a coalition with the SNP after general election

Douglas Alexander admitted the opinion polls in Scotland were 'tough' for Labour

Monday 02 February 2015 03:42 GMT

Douglas Alexander admitted the opinion polls in Scotland were 'tough' for Labour (PA)

Douglas Alexander, who heads Labour’s general election campaign, has refused to rule out a coalition with the SNP if the May contest ends in another hung parliament.

Mr Alexander admitted the opinion polls in Scotland were “tough” for Labour but said he would not “play that game” after the SNP raised the prospect of a post-election deal with Labour.

The shadow Foreign Secretary told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show: "In the coming election in May, the way that we can secure change is not to split the centre left vote but to deliver the maximum number of Labour MPs and, thereby, make sure we have a progressive government not a government led by David Cameron or a government of David Cameron and Nigel Farage."

Experts' predictions for the general election

Show all 10

1/10Experts' predictions for the general election

Experts' predictions for the general election

Andrew Hawkins (ComRes)

Just as the polls in 2010 pointed to no overall majority for any party, the overwhelming evidence points to Labour either being the largest party or getting a small majority, probably below 20. The Lib Dems and SNP should each win between 25 and 35 seats, with single-figure wins for both Ukip and the Greens.

Experts' predictions for the general election

Joe Twyman (YouGov)

I predict it will be close. I predict a few tremors, though earthquakes are unlikely. I predict the eventual winner may not be the direct result of public opinion, but instead the outcome of political negotiations. It’s too early to predict numbers given all the uncertainties surrounding (among other things) Ukip, the SNP and the Lib Dems. It is possible that it will be close between Conservative and Labour in terms of both votes and seats. The Lib Dems might retain 20-30 seats and the balance of power, despite small gains for the SNP, and at most half a dozen Ukip seats. Gun to my head? Labour minority government.

Rex

Experts' predictions for the general election

Ben Page (Ipsos MORI)

A mug’s game for this election months away, but my predictions in order of likelihood: most likely a hung parliament or coalition of some kind, closely followed by either a small Labour majority or an equally small Conservative majority. Given how close the parties are, the unknown performance of Ukip in key marginals, the effect of incumbency on Lib Dem losses, the final size of SNP surge and so on, to be more precise is simply foolish! Professor Tetlock, who found that forecasts by experts were only slightly better than throwing dice, weighs heavily upon me!

Rex

Experts' predictions for the general election

Rick Nye (Populus)

I can see a hung parliament, where Labour is the largest party in terms of seats – though not necessarily in terms of votes, with the Lib Dems having 30 seats or fewer, the SNP having up to 20 seats and Ukip having no more than five seats. In short, it’s going to get messy and stay messy for some time to come.

Experts' predictions for the general election

Nick Moon (GfK)

I can’t recall there ever being an election more difficult to predict than this one. I’m confident no party will have an overall majority, with the Tories probably the largest party but no single partner for a viable coalition, with the Lib Dems on 25 seats, the SNP 20, Ukip three, and the Greens one.

Experts' predictions for the general election

Damian Lyons Lowe (Survation)

We might have expected a workable Labour majority, were it not for the wild-card rise of the SNP in Scotland. Survation’s December Scottish polls suggest an almost complete wipeout by the SNP in Scotland and result in 40+ seat gains – mostly at Labour’s expense. My current predictions are: Labour the largest party by 40-50 seats over the Tories, no overall majority; Tories 235-255 seats; Lib Dems 20-30 seats; SNP 30-40 seats – maybe held back from potential support level by opposition incumbency and tactical voting by pro-unionist voters. Finally, Ukip, 5-10 wins from Conservatives, including Rochester and Clacton, and potentially a single Labour-seat surprise.

Experts' predictions for the general election

Michelle Harrison (TNS)

The battleground over the next three months is at the kitchen table – the difference between what the statistics tell us about the economy, the experience that Britons are having of managing their household budgets, and where – and if – they believe politics can make a difference. In this regard, the disconnect with the major political parties is more interesting than the horse race.

Experts' predictions for the general election

James Endersby (Opinium Research)

Our first poll for 2015 shows Labour one point ahead [see above], but polls four months out from an election are snapshots, not predictions. It would be extremely unwise for a pollster to make a firm prediction now. At the moment, Opinium’s estimate on polling day would be the Tories slightly ahead on vote share, but Labour slightly ahead on seats. These numbers are based on a uniform swing, with tweaks to Green and Ukip numbers based on local information: Labour 320 seats, Conservatives 271, Lib Dems 20, SNP 16, Plaid Cymru three, Greens two, Ukip four. A hung parliament with Labour potentially closer to a majority coalition than the Conservatives.

Experts' predictions for the general election

Martin Boon (ICM)

I’ve not recovered from the Scottish referendum campaign yet, and here we go with another wildcard strewn nail-biter. For me, Labour on 30 per cent will only fractionally nudge past their woeful 2010 showing – behind the Tories on 33 per cent – but enough to secure more seats (290 for Labour, 280 for the Tories) on boundary wackiness. The Lib Dems will secure 14 per cent of the vote and 35 seats; Ukip will also get 14 per cent, but that only gets them a couple of seats. As for Scotland, I’m bewildered, but as you asked I’ll say 30 seats for the SNP, which wipes out a breathing-space victory in seats for Labour.

Experts' predictions for the general election

Lord Ashcroft (Lord Ashcroft Polls)

Declined to take part. His spokeswoman said: “As he has said many times, his polls are snapshots not predictions.” Health warning: when The Independent on Sunday carried out a similar exercise in April 2010, at the start of that year’s election campaign, eight out of eight pollsters predicted a Conservative overall majority.

Rex

Although Labour officials say there is no chance of a Labour-SNP agreement, Ed Miliband has also stopped short of ruling one out. Other figures, including Ed Balls, the shadow Chancellor, are believed to favour a stronger “no deal” statement.

Mr Alexander dismissed the idea that Labour might bow to the SNP’s demand to scrap the Trident nuclear weapons system as part of an agreement. He said: "As a prospective foreign secretary in an incoming Labour government, the responsibility of defending this country is not something that is the subject of simply trading away interests one way or another. Our position on Trident is very clear and I'm not changing it.”

Alex Salmond, the SNP’s former Scottish First Minister, said a formal coalition with Labour would be "unlikely". But he said the Nationalists could help to sustain a minority Labour government on a “vote-by-vote” basis –reaching agreements before key Commons votes.

Asked how the SNP would exploit a hung parliament, he told Sky News the party would ensure promises of further devolution were kept and press for Trident to be scrapped.

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