Mixed fortunes for Lib Dems in by-elections

The latest council by-elections showed sharp fluctuations in Liberal Democrats' fortunes.

They were hit by a huge swing to Labour in marginal Kentish Town at Camden London Borough.

But there was a net switch to them at Springbank, Cheltenham Borough, Gloucestershire where the main challengers were their Tory coalition Government partners.

Labour defended an East Kilbride West seat at Scotland's South Lanarkshire Council where there was a surprise surge in the vote share of third placed Conservatives.

In the month of the cuts announcements, analysis of 22 comparable by-election results suggest a 2.2% projected nationwide lead for Labour over Tories.

A calculation based on 15 wards fought both times by all three major parties gives a line-up of: Lab 37.4%, C 33.1%, Lib Dem 19.5%.

RESULTS:

Camden London Borough - Kentish Town: Lab 1411, Lib Dem 715, Green 349, C 186. (May 2010 - Three seats Lab 2382, 2273, 2153, Lib Dem 2052, 1957, 1755, Green 1198, 939, C 812, 750, 749, Green 690, BNP 180, Socialist Party of Great Britain 113). Lab hold. Swing 10.2% Lib Dem to Lab. Cheltenham Borough - Springbank: LD 722, C 188, Lab 142, Green 35. (May 2010 - Two seats Lib Dem 1688, 1626, C 746, 729). Lib Dem hold. Swing 5.3% C to Lib Dem.

South Lanarkshire Council - East Kilbride West: First count Lab 847, SNP 571, C 403, Green 82, East Kilbride Alliance 71, Lib Dem 70. (May 2007 -Three seats SNP 1861, Lab 1805, C 860, Lab 688, Lib Dem 437, East Kilbride Alliance 259, Green 232 - Elected: SNP 1, Lab 1, C 1). Lab hold. Swing 1.6% SNP to Lab.